2015 Draft Questions
Each draft has its own characteristics and opportunities that need to be considered prior to final rankings heading into the NFL Draft.
DLF is no different than most sites in that we, too, like to have early rankings for you to peruse before any of the rookies have even set foot on a NFL field. DLF went well beyond other sites when we released “Dynasty Scouts,” content focused on collegiate players to help our members who believe as we do that it’s never too soon to begin research.
Now that we know what the 2015 rookie class looks like, it’s time to assess the field and depth to begin formulating the questions that most will be asking as we steam toward the NFL Combine and, eventually, the NFL draft.
At DLF, we have a penchant for detail, analysis and rising above the hype and, most importantly, common thought on our way to assessing players and potential for you, our members. Every year when I survey rookie analysis from many other fantasy sites I’m struck by how little objective, in-depth and accurate research has been done toward identifying the players’ skills and abilities.
When you, our reader, is looking for accurate analysis, we know you expect and deserve more than simple parroting of group think or baseless analysis. Many times these assessments will fly in the face of common thought for particular players (Trent Richardson) and criticism will follow. If you are looking for consensus opinion, there are plenty of other sites that are willing to give you just that. If you want objective research, independent analysis and bold assessments, that’s what we’re all about.
Let me turn my attention to the incoming 2015 class and offer the questions and answers, as I see them, for the weeks to come. It’s very early in the process but things are coming together slowly.
Q: Considering recent years, how deep is the 2015 class?
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A: In recent years (especially 2013 and 2014), the depth of the rookie class has been exceedingly good. From a fantasy perspective, not only were early indications in recent years very positive following the NFL Draft (when most rookie values take a significant hit), there has remained a solid pool of exciting and intriguing rookie options. 2015 looks to continue this trend with very intriguing wide receivers, running backs and even potential quarterbacks near the top. There’s certainly a positive trend forming from recent years and my belief is that it has to do with not only player development, but also the new-look NFL which has opened up offensive production.
Q: Which positions are the deepest in 2015?
A: Without any doubt, again, the receiver position from this year’s class looks exceptional from a pure talent standpoint. Beginning in 2010, the very early beginnings of a tangible shift at the receiver position started to take place with more visibility. Top receivers have, for the most part, been larger and faster specimens. Exceptions have certainly been present but the Larry Fitzgeralds, Andre Johnsons and Calvin Johnsons of the world always carry more intrigue than do such names as do the Torrey Smith and Jeremy Maclin types.
In 2015, we find another huge class of receivers with great length, ball skills and speed. Where my previous analysis on fantasy/NFL drafts found that early fantasy selections on a receiver could be considered foolhardy, the recent trend now finds the position to be the wheelhouse for most fantasy drafts – 2015 looks to continue this trend with very intriguing names.
Q: What gives with the running back position?
A: It’s no secret the running back position continues to be devalued as years pass. We were tracking this trend years ago as the Running Back By Committee (RBBC) picked up steam. I don’t think anyone saw a devaluation occurring such as it has in the past few years. In both 2013 and 2014, no first round running backs were selected in the NFL draft. 2012 saw Trent Richardson, Doug Martin and David Wilson. How has that turned out?
In fact, we took heat when we labeled Andrew Luck the best rookie prospect in the 2012 draft, above Richardson. I labeled Richardson “not elite” and while certainly worthy as the top overall back of the year, I (and others at DLF) found him not nearly as valuable or intriguing as common belief suggested.
Due to the running backs available in 2015, it’s a near certainty we will have at least one back selected in the first round, but let that not cloud your mind about how running backs are now used in the NFL. Simply review the draft history from my favorite league from a previous article to see the top backs selected and how those selections played out in fantasy. Two words: Not Good. The position is now fraught with risk much like receivers used to be.
Q: Is there a place for a high quarterback selection in the first round in fantasy?
A: Yes, I believe there is still the potential of having extremely talented quarterbacks being drafted higher in the first round of fantasy drafts, but I believe this is not only a rare occurrence now but one that is trending lower still. Andrew Luck was a generational talent and very deserving of the first overall pick in fantasy. Yet, very few could make that selection. Quarterbacks are a tough pick high in the first round considering most fantasy formats and narrow point disparity at the position.
In 2015, we have both Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston jockeying for the first pick by Tampa Bay. Whichever one is selected, the next won’t be far behind. In fantasy, however, neither of these quarterbacks will grace the top eight selections in most situations. I believe both quarterbacks carry a fair level of intrigue and potential but you can now expect most drafts to continue devaluing the quarterback position, pushing the first off the board to the back end of the first round at the earliest, potentially to the beginning of the second round, save those generational players like Luck.
Q: Are there other trends to be aware of?
A: Sticking with the quarterback position, expect a trend toward more pocket-oriented passers to pick up momentum, away from prioritizing mobility. Note that escapability and mobility, as it relates to moving the pocket and being opportunistic, will still be highly desirable but the NFL is punishing the run-first quarterback that doesn’t possess a high football IQ, ability to keep his eyes downfield and to get through his progressions quickly.
This fact could very well play against Mariota in 2015 as it has been shown that he is not nearly as accurate from the pocket. Given his slight frame, I could very well see Winston being first off the board, at least if character doesn’t factor.
Q: Just how good is Amari Cooper?
A: This will be a very intriguing situation to watch. I’m very interested to see Cooper’s true size. He’s a fantastic route-runner with good speed and of very high character. He’s also the smallest of all the receivers who will be taken in the first round of fantasy drafts this year. Remember the trend toward bigger receivers and more production over the past couple of years? Cooper is an extremely solid prospect, but may not carry the same intrigue as DeVante Parker, Kevin White or even Dorial Green-Beckham, all of whom are listed at 6’3” or above. I suspect Cooper’s 6’1” listing is a full inch too generous.
Regardless, when watching Cooper play, there’s little doubt that he’s going to be a significant talent at the position. Many have compared him to Julio Jones which I don’t believe is accurate. I’m not hanging a comparison on him just yet, but will following completion of my research. I still favor Sammy Watkins from 2014 over Cooper in dynamic and potential, but it’s close. The other receiver prospects in 2015 carry a lot of intrigue and I’ve already heard of many favoring Parker and Green-Beckham over Cooper.
Q: Are there any tight ends to be excited about?
A: An interesting fact from previous draft research is the fact tight ends selected in the NFL Draft’s first round are nearly always significant fantasy producers. Not always, but over the past decade it’s close to 100%. Last year, Eric Ebron was the tight end of note, a first round fantasy selection and most have not been pleased with the selection, especially if they passed on Jordan Matthews, OBJ or Kelvin Benjamin. But tight ends also take upwards of three years to begin producing. Fantasy coaches are a fickle bunch and anything but patient, so the short answer to this question is: No.
Maxx Williams (Minnesota) is a good looking prospect who should be a second round selection in both the NFL draft and fantasy. But I see nothing to be overly excited at the position in 2015.
Q: I have the first pick and need a running back. Do I select Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley?
A: Over the coming weeks, we hope to help more with this question. Until then, I can give you my assessment as it has not changed much following Gurley’s injury. My research has shown that the perfectly-sized running back is 5’11”/217 lbs. This is simply the measurable that I have arrived at following many years of research, analysis and assessment. It is no guarantee of future production nor value. To wit, I really liked both Brandon Jackson and Donald Brown when they were drafted and graced the middle of fantasy first rounds. Bust and bust.
Prior to Gurley’s ACL injury, which was unfortunate, I still had Gordon as my top back in the draft. There is little way he measures up to his listed 6’1” height and I believe he will be sub 6’. Working against him is also the legacy of Wisconsin backs and those that truly love the size and power of Todd Gurley. They are different backs, but I favor the skill set and agility of Gordon. That said, drafted situation and further research will be material variables for me. They are VERY close in fantasy value and picking the back with the best career ahead may be a coin-flip. More to come on these two – a lot more!
Q: Who should be the first overall pick in fantasy for 2015?
A: This is a fun year! In most years, this question doesn’t exist but in 2015, you’ve got three players all very closely ranked and I could make a good case for any of them. The bigger question here really is should Amari Cooper be the first overall selection?
This answer may easily come down to your own specific need. If you have a need at RB, this is your year as you have two great ones to choose from. If you need a receiver, Cooper is talented enough to select with a high degree of confidence. If you are balanced and use a best player available (BPA) approach, let the consternation begin.
The recent decline in running back value, when combined with the history of first-overall fantasy running backs selected makes a selection of Amari Cooper a sneaky-smart play. Receivers have potentially longer careers, less injuries and can remain top targets for many years whereas the drawbacks with running backs, especially recently, are well known.
My early research along with recent trending yields the following answer. If I have ANY need at receiver, Cooper would be my choice. He’s a safe play, will go highly in the NFL draft to a team in dire need and projects very well at the next level. He’s a sneaky-good play for a very long career against two running backs that could be very good but fighting a poor trend at the position.
Q: Does Gurley’s injury significantly affect his draft value?
A: Not in my book (and not in our Doc’s either). Don’t get me wrong here, no ACL injury is trivial or should be off the radar. A running back only has so many injuries to his lower extremities in his body. The ACL is a significant blow but not the blow that it used to be. While many have likened this event to Marcus Lattimore and Willis McGahee in years past, doing so is a major mistake. Gurley’s ACL was atypical and as routine as can be given the injury. While he won’t likely take part in Combine drills, he should still see the field early in 2015.
Given Gurley’s listed size 6’1”/226 lbs. you can make a case for his injury being more or less impactful given his style of running. While I believe an ACL is more problematic for backs like Gordon, others believe the opposite. Either way, Gurley was second on my list at the position heading into 2015 and he’ll remain so in all likelihood.
Q: When forecasting the 2015 fantasy first round, what is the positional depth looking like?
Normally I’m not prepared to talk names at this early juncture, but I feel very strongly about this class such that I can give you an early assessment of who I believe will be the first ten off the board in fantasy will be. This list is likely to change at running back, but also has a good chance of being relatively accurate.
In a very loose order given my current research and assessment, here is my current top ten:
- Amari Cooper, WR Alabama
- Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin
- Todd Gurley, RB Georgia
- DeVante Parker, WR Louisville
- Kevin White, WR West Virginia
- Dorial Green-Beckham, WR Oklahoma
- Tevin Coleman, RB Indiana
- Devin Funchess, WR Michigan
- T.J. Yeldon, RB Alabama
- Jay Ajayi, RB Boise State
Hope you enjoyed my early look at the 2015 NFL Draft. Follow me on Twitter: @DLF_Jeff
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You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
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