Weekly Twitter Observations
Each week I will be walking through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis.
Marshawn Lynch, RB SEA
It is always an entertaining ride with Marshawn Lynch. No one else makes press for not saying anything like “Skittles.” Coming into the season there was a question of whether Marshawn would even be suiting up as a Seattle Seahawk. Management of course brought him back and the Seahawks are one game away from a repeat as National Champions, largely due to his performance. As Adam Levitan tweeted, questions have still remained on his place with the organization moving forward.
A few months ago, it seemed like a foregone conclusion Marshawn Lynch would be done in SEA after this season. Now? http://t.co/qNcNTi6BZV
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) January 19, 2015
The link goes on to question how the Seahawks could truly part with Lynch after another great performance and being one of the all-around best players in the NFL. Marshawn Lynch was easily one of the best running back this season with nearly 1,700 total yards and 17 touchdowns during the regular season. Pro Football Focus ranked him as the second best running back behind only Le’Veon Bell. Lynch has also posted at least 1,400 total yards and 12 touchdowns a season over the last four years, and despite reoccurring back problems he has only missed one game over that same span. His performances in the playoffs only cement his value to the team as he continues to break his own records going “Beast Mode” as Pete Damilatis pointed out,
Marshawn Lynch forced 15 missed tackles vs GB yesterday, breaking a @PFF playoff record held by…Marshawn Lynch. pic.twitter.com/tUn0dlNyqA
— Pete Damilatis (@PFF_Pete) January 19, 2015
(Pete did follow up this tweet correcting the 12 missed tackle performance to 2010).
[inlinead]Currently the DLF crew ranks Lynch as the tenth overall running back in dynasty. If he were to continue to play even two more seasons at the level he has been at that is likely low. But with Lynch there remain the mounting carries and potential injury problems with his back. If anyone could simply walk away from the game at the drop of the hat it would also be Marshawn. He is set to be paid as one of the top running backs next season but has only one year left on his deal. If he seeks an additional year added things could get complicated again. Factoring in these risks and reading the general commentary on the situation to date I fully expect Marshawn to be with the Seahawks in 2015. If this is reality it also continues to create problems for Twitter favorite Christine Michael and to a lesser extent Robert Turbin. At this point I am leaning more towards abandoning hope on Michael. He has not garnered more playing time to date and with Lynch around that remains unlikely. I cannot see ranking Michael inside the top 30 dynasty running backs moving forward.
CJ Spiller, RB BUF
A mostly forgotten name from 2014 has arisen for one last look as Cian Fahey mentioned,
C.J. Spiller hitting the open market as a free agent this off-season. One of the more intriguing running backs available.
— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) January 17, 2015
Spiller is a space back really, best suited to be part of a rotation. He’s not as young as you’d think though.
— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) January 17, 2015
Everyone remembers CJ Spiller’s 2012 season where he became a top ten fantasy back despite only 250 touches on the season. Averaging six yards per carry and over ten yards per reception, many were assuming Spiller would challenge for the number one back in fantasy the following season and be afforded more touches based on past production. Thanks to injuries and the unstoppable Fred Jackson, Spiller saw slightly less touches but his averages per touch dropped significantly as did his total touchdowns dropping from eight to two. 2014 offered more of the split backfield situation and CJ only managed to play in nine contests.
Now a free agent, the Bills have said they would like to re-sign Spiller, but also still have younger and cheaper options in Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown available. Spiller has recently been linked to potentially rejoining Chan Gailey on the New York Jets, but as of writing this on Tuesday Gailey was not yet inked. If the Jets parted ways with Chris Johnson and brought in Spiller he would most likely remain in a similar share situation as he saw in Buffalo and what the Jets ran with Chris Ivory. Last season Chris Johnson totaled 179 touches and finished outside the top 30 in fantasy running backs. Even if both Gailey and Spiller reunite with the Jets and Spiller logs 200 touches his fantasy ceiling should remain low. Scoring opportunities are not plentiful in New York and Spiller was never a touchdown machine. Relying on 28 year old legs with nagging injuries he also is not going to be putting up five plus yards per carry. He still holds value in fantasy, but likely nothing more than a weekly FLEX option. Tracking his offseason will be important to fully understand value but expecting a return to glory is unlikely.
Antonio Brown, WR PIT
If we’re being honest with ourselves, Antonio Brown was the best receiver in the league this year.
— Russell Clay (@FFRussellClay) January 19, 2015
If anyone disagrees with this tweet from DLF’s Russell Clay then we are not friends. Antonio Brown has established himself as one of the league’s elite receivers and his consistency has been remarkable. He currently is riding an active streak of 32 games with five plus receptions AND 50 plus yards. The more impressive thing about this streak is over his last 19 games his lowest yardage output has been 72. Compare Antonio to another top target in dynasty like Dez Bryant who failed to catch five or more balls in 2014 on seven different occasions. Julio Jones was able to top 50 yards in each game started in 2014, though he too missed catching at least five balls in three different games. Currently I have Antonio as my number one receiver in dynasty. I just love the week in, week out production and he is still relatively young at 26. Looking back at his current streak of 50 and 50, the next closest receiver is at nine games and counting. Impressively that receiver’s lowest total receiving yards over that stretch is 90 and he may just make a case for number one in dynasty this offseason. That receiver is of course Odell Beckham Jr.
LaGarrette Blount, RB NE
After the New England Patriots advanced to the Super Bowl this past weekend, Nathan Jahnke shared the following in regards to LaGarrette Blount’s big day.
LeGarrette Blount had 42 snaps today; his most in a game since 2011 Week 4.
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) January 19, 2015
Blount’s journey around the league and even this season has been interesting, but it truly appears that both he and the Patriots are a good fit. Looking ahead to next season, both Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen are unrestricted free agents leaving Blount and the younger crop of running backs signed. Ridley’s time in New England appears to be over and Vereen is utilized completely different than Blount so even if he remains he does not truly diminish LaGarette’s value. Jonas Gray showed flashes this season and neither James White nor Tyler Gaffney got involved in the offense. Blount also has 25 pounds plus on every other running back on the team. While Blount is 28 years old, he has amassed less than 800 total touches in his career (or about what DeMarco Murray had this season alone) so the wear and tear is low. It is tough to know where to truly place Blount in dynasty as if he receives any kind of extension this off-season his value will truly jump. As it stands today I would be looking to acquire on the cheap and have a weekly FLEX option running back available on my roster.
Drafting Quarterbacks Early
Graham Barfield posted an interesting tweet on QB1 & QB2 production over the last couple years.
Quarterback per-game output has been trending upward since 2006, but QB1 scoring has plateaued over the last 3 years. pic.twitter.com/raOjGRFxYu
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) January 17, 2015
While both QB1 and QB2 average points per game were essentially flat from 2013 to 2014, QB2 production has been on a steady increase since 2006 whereas QB1 production has been dropping off since the highs in 2011. This season, Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger displayed while waiting on your QB can return the same or better output than early selected quarterbacks. Wilson was anywhere between the 8th to 10th quarterback off the board and finished as the third best signal caller in fantasy. Big Ben was likely hanging around in the double digit rounds and outplayed consensus top three pick Drew Brees. The replacement value and production of quarterbacks is truly smoothing out with players like Ryan Tannehill and Eli Manning, who could have been waiver wire pickups, finishing as top ten quarterbacks in fantasy. Eli is already a player I have circled to acquire next season as his price will be relatively cheap and his production should be weekly starter caliber.
Special call out to Pro Football Focus’ Premium Stats for providing a great tool to pull some of the data and information in this article.
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Luke practically owns the Twitter machine at @FFGator
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