Weekly Twitter Observations
Each week I will be walking through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis.
Carlos Hyde, RB SF
A changing of the guard in San Francisco may finally be taking place this off-season at the running back position. Gore has been a member of the 49ers for the last ten seasons and at the age of 31 is most likely moving on. After making $6.5 million in 2014, San Francisco is poised to part ways with the dependable runner and move to the cheaper rookie contract of Carlos Hyde. Hyde spent his first season siphoning off about 25% of the running back touches and providing fantasy owners with a good view of what could be expected in the coming seasons. He managed 4.0 yards per carry on 83 totes and added another 12 catches with a 75% catch rate for 68 yards. As Adam Levitan tweeted he also proved to gain the tough yards.
Gore a 32yo FA. Carlos Hyde T-8th in NFL in yards after contact per attempt, behind only Todman, Helu, Lynch, Bradshaw, Lacy, JHill, Arian.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) January 12, 2015
[inlinead]Gore managed to end the season as a RB2 in standard leagues on 266 total touches, but also managed less than seven points in seven different games in PPR scoring formats. Gore was once a PPR stud averaging around 50 catches a season and it will be interesting to see how the new coaching staff utilizes Carlos. The 49ers will likely not get any less conservative under the new regime and they managed to fall in the middle of the pack in regards to total offense in 2014. This means Hyde’s floor is likely a low-end RB2 barring injury for the foreseeable future and currently he is being ranked in dynasty around the 7 – 12 spots for running backs. The San Francisco offense will likely see a number of changes moving forward, but counting on Hyde appears a pretty safe bet in fantasy.
Davante Adams, WR GB
Compared to other rookie receivers in 2014, Davante Adams could have been labeled a bust. Of course when you are sitting behind two receivers like Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb there may not be a ton of opportunities coming your way. Looking more closely though Adams was able to quickly overtake Jarrett Boykin as the number three receiver in the Packers offense and put together a few solid outings. In his most recent contest against the Cowboys, Adams shined as Evan Silva reported,
Davante Adams isn’t very big or fast, so want to see him make tough catches & dominate with YAC. Exactly what he did vs. DAL. Put on a show.
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) January 12, 2015
Adams’ performance against the Cowboys was not completely indicative of his first season. His catch rate and yards per catch were middle of the field for receivers and definitely behind both Nelson and Cobb. He also only managed to grab more than 2 passes in a game once over the last eight regular season contests. I still expect the Packers to lock up Cobb long term meaning despite growth as a receiver, Davante will remain at best the third option in Green Bay. Adam Harstad tweeted the following after Green Bay’s most recent win and I would join him in the selling mode.
By the way, to everyone in my dynasty leagues, I am fielding offers for Davante Adams.
— Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad) January 11, 2015
Personally a player like Donte Moncrief would appear to hold more upside in fantasy with a clearer line of sight to targets and production.
Luke Willson, TE SEA
The tight end position proved to be fairly unpredictable in 2014 after Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham (who did fail to meet draft expectations). DLF’s Scott Peak made a specific new year’s resolution to avoid chasing perceived talent and value at the tight end position and I could not agree more. Enter Seattle Seahawks Luke Willson. Despite playing more than twice as many snaps as any other tight end on the Seahawks roster, Willson was mainly a bye week filler option. Russell Wilson does not throw the ball as often as other top quarterbacks in the league and often looks to spread the ball around. As Cian Fahey noted, Luke Willson has begun to carve out his spot in the Seahawks offense.
Luke Willson has been somewhat of a revelation for the Seahawks this year. Just a role player, but became an important role player.
— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) January 11, 2015
The allure of WIllson is clearly his huge size (6’5 and 250 pounds) matched with 4.5 speed. Over the last three games Luke has also managed to average three catches for 80 yards and a touchdown. If you are looking for cheaper options at the tight end position to invest in, Willson should be a top target.
Jordan Matthews, WR PHI
Fantasy football often times relies more on situations than pure player talent. The offensive system and quarterback can dictate quite a bit on the production of the players around them. Under Chip Kelly, Philadelphia has proven to be a system you want your fantasy players involved in. That is why when Adam Levitan shared the following about the Eagles’ Riley Cooper I got even more excited about Jordan Matthews’ future prospects.
Out of 110 qualifying WRs in 2014, PFF graded Riley Cooper dead last: http://t.co/Ep2VzynjcP
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) January 12, 2015
Cooper out-snapped Matthews all season, but during the second half of the year Jordan was targeted more often, had more receptions and more than doubled Cooper’s receiving yards and touchdowns. Matthews proved to be the most reliable scoring option the team as well as Maclin only reached the end zone twice in the last eight games compared to five for Matthews. Looking back to Adam’s tweet, the Eagles actually have Cooper signed through 2018 while Maclin is an unrestricted free agent. If Maclin lands elsewhere in 2015 Matthews could hold WR1 upside in the Eagle offense. It sounds like the Eagles plan on doing everything to keep Maclin and even if he remains on the team Jordan Matthews will be a constant in this offense and a weekly WR2 option.
Sammy Watkins, WR BUF
Speaking of NFL offenses you may NOT want to be involved with, I found myself agreeing a lot with the below assessment to coaching changes in Buffalo.
Sammy impact (w/ Rex & Roman): Historically two minds that rely heavily on the run, and don’t feed a WR1. Could be wrong, but I’d sell.
— Rummy (@RumfordJohnny) January 11, 2015
Sammy Watkins is a physical stud, but if you do not have a quarterback that can get you the ball or a game plan that will focus on making opportunities happen then the fantasy ceiling is definitely lowered. The aforementioned Jordan Matthews and Watkins finished with nearly the same fantasy points in their rookie seasons. Watkins of course was the more heralded of the two coming into the year but the Buffalo offensive situation was much different to that in Philadelphia. Watkins had to suffer through EJ Manuel’s growing pains before the Kyle Orton was brought in to keep the offense afloat. Orton has since retired and currently Manuel is in the driver seat for running the Bills offense in 2015. As John pointed out as well, that offense will likely remain very conservative with a run first approach. Unlike Matthews, Watkins also struggled over the second half of the year recording only two games over 57 receiving yards and managed to score only one time. Based on situation and talent around them I would likely be siding with Matthews in dynasty over Watkins.
Special call out to Pro Football Focus’ Premium Stats for providing a great tool to pull some of the data and information in this article.
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Luke practically owns the Twitter machine at @FFGator
- Weekly Twitter Observations - April 2, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 26, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 11, 2016
