The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter Posted On January 14, 2015

robinson

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

Every year in my 12-team, non-PPR league we have to cut down a number of players by the date of the NFL Combine, all based upon our season record. Fortunately, I won our league. Unfortunately that means I have to make some tough decisions. I have a solid core anchored by Andrew Luck, Demaryius Thomas, Alshon Jeffery, DeMarco Murray and Jimmy Graham, but have to make a tough decision to cut one of Donte Moncrief or Allen Robinson. I like both and maybe I can re-draft the one I cut, but am wondering who holds the better value going into next season? – Ash in TX

In my opinion, one of the most important attributes a fantasy football writer can have is transparency. In my case, it’s important to disclose I’m a Penn State fan, and have been since my youth. Not only does this impart a subconscious emotional bias into my scouting, but it also means I’ve seen every Allen Robinson play at the collegiate level – I mean, he’s my Twitter avatar for goodness sake!

As can therefore be easily surmised, I was a big fan of the soon-to-be sophomore receiver before he ever stepped between the white lines at the NFL level. With that said, once he got there, he simply did work for a team which ranked amongst the league’s cellar dwellers with regards to passing offense (31^st in total passing yards). Excepting a week one affair where he hardly played, Robinson put forward a weekly line of 5.2/60.9, and including two total touchdowns he was good for an average of 12.6 PPR points. That equates to low-end WR3 numbers on a point-per-game basis, and would have been sixth amongst all the 2014 rookie receivers.

Continuing, despite appearing in only ten games A-Rob only had 129 fewer yards than the Jaguars’ team leader (Allen Hurns – it was a relatively good year for Allens in JAX). He also only had five fewer receptions than team leader Cecil Shorts III, despite having 29 fewer targets. All told, despite missing time in training camp, as well as the last six games of the year, he was easily Jacksonville’s best pass catcher.

He also performed significantly better than the Colts’ Donte Moncrief, who despite all the physical gifts in the world couldn’t surpass the aging Reggie Wayne and “legless” Hakeem Nicks until late in the season. The vast majority of his production came in two big games, ultimately accounting for 31% of his receptions, 56% of his yards and all three of his touchdowns – other than that he was largely invisible. Despite playing for an Indy offense that led the league in passing volume, Moncrief was an afterthought.

So even accounting for my inherent bias, this is an easy choice. Despite being a hair smaller and slower, Robinson is a significantly better football player than Moncrief, and carries with him a much higher fantasy floor. Anyone who told you otherwise would merely be “(Nittany) lion.”

John Fox is already out in Denver and it’s possible Peyton Manning could follow. What, if anything, are you doing with your Broncos? – Jason in CA

The “Peyton Bump,” as it’s popularly termed, is very real – just ask Jets receiver Eric Decker. Getting to play with a five-time league MVP and future Hall of Famer has undoubtedly had a trickle-down effect on the Denver skill position players. However, I’d urge caution at panic-trading any Broncos simply because of the hypothetical possibility Peyton Manning might not be back.

Demaryius Thomas remains a matchup nightmare and should flourish no matter who is throwing him the ball. I still view him as a tier-one receiver, and wouldn’t accept anything less than 95% of his worth. In fact, I wouldn’t be actively looking to trade him at all – rather, I’d be a buyer if the owner is willing to sell on the cheap.

I feel similarly about Emmanuel Sanders, though I can see cause for concern – I’m of the belief that he was a true upgrade on Decker as a more versatile and seam-stretching receiver, and Pittsburgh simply didn’t know what they had. He got open at will even against a tough Indy secondary, and was unstoppable for the vast majority of the season. Again, I’d be a buyer, not a seller.

I’d also probably want to hold onto running back CJ Anderson, as a view him as the team’s top option in the backfield. With that said, I think the “Peyton Bump” has a bigger effect in the run game, and could understand selling for 75 cents on the dollar here. Ditto for Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball, should they be desired by your league-mates.

Rookie Cody Latimer remains a hold. He did precious little during the season, but was nevertheless a second-round pick by GM John Elway. With Wes Welker and Julius Thomas likely to depart, he should see a rise in usage come 2015 – there’s no reason to sell him now, and I’d much prefer to send out a low-ball offer when it comes time for your league’s draft.

Getting back to the lesser Thomas, he’s the only Bronco I’d be looking to actively sell. I recognize he’s relatively athletic for the position and possesses a nose for the end zone, but it’s tough to see him succeeding as well as he did on another team. Again, I wouldn’t sell for peanuts, but a drop-off in fantasy effectiveness is more than likely coming if and when he lands elsewhere.

Is this already the end of the line for Trent Richardson? I can’t imagine a bigger bust, both in fantasy and real life. Is there any reason for hope here? – Dennis in NC

Honestly I don’t think there is. He’s just a bad running back who lacks vision and really only excels as a pass-catcher in space. The guy hoodwinked nearly all of us, and that includes fantasy owners and the management of two separate NFL teams alike.

I think the best-case scenario for T-Rich is he emerges as a third-down running back who can make his hay through the air. For his career Richardson averages a respectable 8.1 yards-per-catch while converting 72.4% of his targets. In fact, his 6.59 yards-per-target since joining the Colts actually stacks up favorably to another elite pass-catching ball carrier in the Bears’ Matt Forte (6.45 YPT).

Regardless, this remains a far cry from what the majority of us expected. After all, the words “punt team coverage” should never be associated with the former third pick of the NFL Draft. I suppose it’s not the worst idea in the world to try to snag him on the cheap (i.e. a mid third-round rookie draft pick) in the hopes he might finally reinvent himself, but if I’m honest with myself I don’t ever seem Richardson becoming a valuable asset, either in a fantasy and NFL setting.

In my 12-team PPR league I’ve been offered Roy Helu for Khiry Robinson. It’s likely neither would start for me next year, so I’m looking mostly for upside. Who do you prefer? – Tim in MD

It’s my opinion the Saints are a team at a crossroads. Though they don’t lack for name-brand recognition (Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Brandin Cooks and Marques Colston – and that’s just the offense), they have a lot of money tied up in their star players, and thus little room for free agent activity. They also have several draft needs, including receiver, offensive line and multiple spots on the defense.

It’s because of this I don’t expect running back Mark Ingram to be retained, or for a high pick to be spent on a new backfield option. As such, Khiry Robinson suddenly stands as the guy to own for the “hammer back” role in the Saints’ ball carrying corps. K-Rob (really, can’t we every have too many x-Rob nicknames?) has shown well in limited opportunities (4.5 YPC across 130 career totes), and given coach Sean Payton’s proclivity for establishing running back success given “spare parts” at the position, this remains a substantial opportunity for fantasy viability.

Because of this potential I’d have to slot Robinson slightly ahead of free agent Roy Helu. Though I view Helu as the more versatile player, he carries with him the question marks of future destination and usage. It’s true we’ve previously seen him shoulder the load, if only for a small subset of games, but it’s still fair to wonder if he’s the next Michael Turner or another Toby Gerhart.

In a vacuum Helu might very well possess the same, if not more upside than Robinson, so in that vein I wouldn’t fault you for making the deal. But the level of certainty, if only slightly, remains higher with the Saint. I’m all for acquiring Helu while his price is still down, but think you can obtain his services at a cheaper cost.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.