Dynasty Stock Market: My Perfect Draft

I admit it. I’m addicted to mock drafting. You probably know this already, as I put together over 60 startup dynasty mock drafts per year and participate in each one of them. That’s over 1,300 draft picks I make each year and that doesn’t even count the rookie, devy and redraft mocks I participate in, so I feel like I have a pretty good feel for the draft value of nearly every NFL player.

Today, I wanted to share with you what the beginning of an ideal startup draft would look like for one of my teams. Before we get to the actual players, remember a few things about my general dynasty strategy…

• I value wide receivers, specifically young wide receivers above all others
• I place very little value on running backs for many reasons. In fact, if I go the first ten rounds without a running back, I would not be concerned.
• I’ve noticed, as have you I’m sure, a widening gap between the top tier quarterbacks and tight ends and the second tiers of each respective position. If I can’t have one of Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck or Rob Gronkowski, then I’ll likely wait and be one of the last teams to fill that spot on my roster.
• I value youth over veterans, almost to a fault. I feel like I’m adapting in this area to be more reasonable, but I still find myself opting for the younger, upside player over those who are proven and “safe.”

In this exercise, I’ll go through the first few rounds of a potential dynasty startup draft. I’ll share with you the most up to date average draft position (ADP) data I have at my disposal, data that is not even found on our site yet. I’ll then explain, round by round, who my ideal player would be in forming a dream team, of sorts. I don’t expect you to agree with me on every pick and some of these choices may seem over the top. When I’m done, feel free to post your own choices in the comments section below.

Remember, the players are being listed in order based on January’s dynasty ADP data, as decided by our 72 mock draft participants.

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Round 1 

There are plenty of great options here, as you’d expect in a group of the 12 most valuable dynasty assets at this time. While none of these stand out to me as poor picks, I don’t ever see myself selecting a quarterback in the first round of a typical start one dynasty league, so that eliminates Andrew Luck. I’ve also already explained my general disdain for running backs, so no Le’Veon Bell either, as terrific as he was this season. That leaves a deep group of top tier wideouts and the best tight end in the game. Honestly, I’d be happy with any of the players in the top nine, other than Bell. For this pick, I’ll take a little bit of a risk with the rookie out of Tampa Bay. While I’ve seen many sharing their opinion that the rookie season we saw from Odell Beckham was his absolute peak and while that may or may not be true, I think we’ve only seen a glimpse of what Mike Evans is capable of. I know it’s a bit of lazy logic, but I’m very anxious to see what Evans can do with an upgrade at quarterback and if the rumors come true and Marc Trestman is the next offensive coordinator of the Bucs, Evans could be in for a huge year in 2015.

The Pick: Mike Evans, TB WR

Current Team:

QB-

RB-

WR- Evans

TE-

Round 2

I’m still not comfortable selecting a running back this early in the draft, so even a second round run that sees four backs coming off the board isn’t enough to change my mind. The same goes for quarterback, eliminating Aaron Rodgers as an option and maybe I’m overreacting, but Jimmy Graham did not look like the same player in the second half of the season. I’m still glad to have him on my team, but I’m not making him a cornerstone player of my brand new squad. That leaves a choice of six wide outs. We have some interesting options here, including proven studs like Calvin Johnson and Jordy Nelson and upstarts TY Hilton and DeAndre Hopkins. In the past, this choice would’ve been easy as Josh Gordon has been a long-time favorite of mine, but I’m just not sure the risk he brings makes him worth a second round pick. Instead, I’ll go with a player I view as a very safe and solid pick, not to mention a homer pick by me, Randall Cobb of the Green Bay Packers. That last part is important…the Green Bay Packers. While I believe in Cobb’s talent no matter where he ends up in 2015, there’s no argument that he is better off, from a fantasy perspective, with Rodgers and the Packers.

The Pick: Randall Cobb, WR GB

Current Team:

QB-

RB-

WR- Evans, Cobb

TE-

Round 3

What stands out to me about this third round is the obscene number of rookies with over half of the round’s 12 players being first year players, including a pair of running backs, Jeremy Hill and Carlos Hyde. This is the point where I might start considering taking a young running back, if I had no other options I felt comfortable with, but that’s far from the case here. Even this second tier of rookie wideouts is strong. Kelvin Benjamin had a fantastic rookie season, but was just outdone by the trio of first rounders we already mentioned. Both Allen Robinson and Brandin Cooks got off to solid starts, but saw their first year cut short by injury. Davante Adams played well too, but was never the top option in the Packers’ offense. I’ve already discussed the disappointing play of Jimmy Graham and with Marques Colston potentially moving on from New Orleans, I’m willing to gamble on Cooks at this spot.

The Pick: Brandin Cooks, WR NO

Current Team:

QB-

RB-

WR- Evans, Cobb, Cooks

TE-

Round 4

This is the first round where there are really no players I’m exciting about owning. Combine that with the previous round where my top choice was also the top player according to our ADP, and we have a tier drop. In an actual draft, this would be a spot where I’d look to trade down and acquire extra picks in later rounds or future rookie picks. In this case, I think I’m going to break the streak and finally select a running back. I would strongly consider Cam Newton, as I think he’s still the third best option among the quarterback group, but I don’t see a wide enough gap. There are only two backs I’d consider among the five being valued in this range, Giovani Bernard and Tre Mason. Berard lost a lot of value this season with the emergence of Jeremy Hill and Mason came out of nowhere to overtake Zac Stacy. Many seem concerned that Mason could lose his job in a similar way, but I see him as a much more talented overall player than Stacy, so that doesn’t concern me. The recent departure of Rams’ offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer leaves an already poor offensive team with even less direction. With this in mind, I’ll select one-half of the best running back duo in the league, Bernard.

The Pick: Giovani Bernard, RB CIN

Current Team:

QB-

RB- Bernard

WR- Evans, Cobb, Cooks

TE-

Round 5

This fifth round is ugly! The majority of these players have proven very little in the NFL. As you know, I typically wouldn’t have a problem taking a chance on these types of players, but rookies like Isaiah Crowell and Jerick McKinnon earned starting jobs for their teams, only to offer uninspiring play, along with an injury for McKinnon. It’s not safe to assume either will be the 2015 starter for their team, meaning I couldn’t consider choosing them in the fifth round. As much as I believ in the talent of Cordarrelle Patterson and Christine Michael, they too have let their owners down. I’m actually surprised both ended up with such a high ADP. I wouldn’t have any hesitation to grab my fourth wide receiver here, if there was a player really had faith in, but that’s not the case. Instead, I’ll opt for a high upside player from another position, tight end. Travis Kelce has been compared to Rob Gronkowski and while it’s a lot to expect he’ll reach that standard, I do think he could eclipse Julius Thomas at some point this off-season to be considered the TE3 in dynasty leagues.

The Pick: Travis Kelce, TE KC

Current Team:

QB-

RB- Bernard

WR- Evans, Cobb, Cooks

TE- Kelce

Next week, I’ll continue this and make my next five picks based on January’s dynasty ADP data.

Follow @RyanMc23 on Twitter

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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