Off-Season Questions

Jeff Haverlack

fitz

Welcome to the off-season!  I hope your 2014 campaign lived up to all your expectations.  Whether it did or not, rest not on your laurels dynasty coaches, the off-season begins now!

Each year following a long four months of in-season games, I make sure not to spend too much time patting myself on the back for championships won, nor dwell in frustration at those teams that didn’t perform.  Lessons to be learned? Sure.  But after many years of playing this game, those lessons are realized quickly and retained for later use.  I much more prefer to begin uncovering potential opportunities to get a jump on my competition.  Following are some of the primary off-season questions that I find most intriguing which should also yield fantasy impact in 2015.

Let’s dive right in.

Q:  Where does Larry Fitzgerald play in 2015?

There’s no question Fitzgerald is one of the most universally admired players in the NFL.  He’s been a class act from day one and now at 31 years of age, looks to be at a crossroads in his career.  Fitzgerald hasn’t crossed the 1,000 yard threshold since 2011 and will turn 32 a week before kickoff of the 2015 season.  Fitz also carries greater than a $23M cap hit for the Cardinals and it’s believed he won’t be back in the red and white.  Head coach Bruce Arians doesn’t feature players and Fitzgerald’s numbers have suffered.  He’s also battled injury and quarterback woes which have limited his production.  In any case, it looks as if Fitzgerald will be looking to finish his career with a new logo on his helmet, most likely one of the league’s powerhouses which would provide an opportunity for a championship.  Both Seattle and New England figure prominently in my mind and while Belichick and the Patriots never over-pay for talent, they’re well known for seeking out veteran players looking for a change of scenery.  Either situation would provide upside for Fitzgerald owners and provide intriguing potential.  Both clubs have need a the position.  Being a Seahawk fan, Wilson to Fitzgerald has a nice ring to it.

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Q:  Is Marshawn Lynch out in Seattle?

It may just be me, but I’ve been watching the Seattle rushing attack with great interest.  Not so much from a Marshawn Lynch standpoint but, instead, with an interest as to why Christine Michael hasn’t been garnering more snaps.  Robert Turbin looks like a better runner and my sixth sense leads me to believe that there’s a lot more to the story that we aren’t hearing.  No question that Lynch and Seahawk brass have been at odds on multiple occasions but there’s no getting around Lynch’s fourth straight 1,000 yard campaign with double digit touchdowns.  Arguing Lynch isn’t an important variable in their success equation is a losing position from word one.  Turning 29 in April, there still appears to be tread on his massive tires and it’s anyone’s guess as to where he plays in ’15.  At $5M, he’s somewhat of a bargain and anything beyond Lynch on the depth chart carries a question mark.  The linchpin here (pun fully intended), is Marshawn’s desire to play for the Hawks on his existing contract.  Having tossed out the “R” word in 2014, there may be a power-struggle which likely would be short lived, ending in his release.  In either case, Lynch’s running style and role should provide consistency in 2015 in whatever helmet he dons, as long as he doesn’t hang’em up.

Q:  What will the Ravens do at running back for 2015?

Justin Forsett came from nowhere in 2014 to notch his first 1,000 yard season, but is a free agent.  Gone is Ray Rice and somewhat out of favor are both Bernard Pierce and the young rookie, Lorenzo Taliaferro.  Forsett will begin the 2015 season at 29 years of age and will strike the magic 30 mark in October.  Pierce is only 23 years of age and has a year remaining on his, very manageable, $660,000 contract.  Look for the Ravens to try and lure Forsett back for one more year at a reduced cost while keeping Pierce and Taliaferro in the fold.  Pierce averaged 3.9 ypc. in 2015 and has youth on his side but it seems that the Ravens have soured on his long term potential.  I expect Forsett to draw interest from other clubs and ultimately sign elsewhere, leaving the other two as potential sleeper candidates.

Q:  Does RGIII get a reboot?

Leading up to the last few games of the season, it was all but certain Robert Griffin III was headed out of our nation’s capital as owner Daniel Snyder threw support behind head coach Jay Gruden rather than RGIII.  But following a season ending injury to Colt McCoy, RGIII played well enough to potentially be in the mix as the starter in 2015.  The Redskins gave up a king’s ransom for the rights to draft RGIII  in 2012 and the odds appears stacked against their high priced quarterback remaining in D.C.  Gone will be the opportunity for a high draft pick in trade but given the need of multiple teams around the NFL at the position, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Skins could garner a third round pick for the once high-ceiling player.  Fantasy leaguers would love to see RGIII head to the Eagles to be paired with the up-tempo offense of Chip Kelly, seemingly a good fit.  Myself?  As much as I’d like to see Griffin out of D.C., without the draft picks or depth chart to support the position in 2015, I don’t see how they could be so bold to grant him an exit.  I’m expecting Gruden and RGIII to give it one more go next year before the eventual split occurs.

Q:  What do the New England Patriots do at running back?

Not many clubs around the NFL have as many question marks at the running back position as the Patriots do heading into the off-season.  Shane Vereen and injured-and-fumble-prone Stevan Ridley are both free agents.  Late season addition LeGarrette Blount signed a two-year contract and will likely return while Jonas Gray, potentially the back with the most upside, carries a very manageable salary into 2015.  No team is more adept at making lemonade from lemons as are the Patriots and it’s anyone’s guess as to which back to own.  To be safe, every one of them should be rostered until we know more – which may not be until after kick-off of the 2015 season.  Personally, I like Gray’s upside and potential as an every-down back, but the New England system doesn’t provide that type of opportunity.  It’s yet another mess at running back and if you don’t own of these backs already, it may be easier to just steer clear altogether and other coaches sort it out.

Q:  What is Montee Ball’s future?

Ball looked to be in-line for a big season in the high-powered Denver offense.  However, relatively pedestrian play coupled with injury opened the door for a resurgent Ronnie Hillman and, eventually, C.J. Anderson – the latter staking his claim for the top back for the Broncos in 2015.  Anderson has looked every bit of the runner needed and Hillman looked like a complete back himself, leaving Ball potentially as the odd man out.  Hillman’s injury history may be enough to keep Ball on the roster unless Denver feels that third back, Jawan Thompson is more deserving.  Thompson has the better body as the RB2.  Ball may be a luxury player that could bring trade value.  In either case, his value for 2015 is extremely muddy.  He should be owned in all formats as he’s young and could be a complete back.  Look for Ball to slim down in the off-season and come back strong to earn a role in 2015.  Until something unexpected happens, this looks like Anderson’s job for the near term.

Q:  Which Colin Kaepernick will we see in 2015?

I can’t think of another quarterback with more unrealized potential than Colin Kaepernick.  I was all-in on Kaep for 2014 and he was all-bad.  To be fair, his totals:  3,369 yards, 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions we’re QB2 capable.  His 639 rushing yards were the most in his career and provided major upside each week, if you could risk starting him.  With Jim Harbaugh on his way to Michigan, there will be a new system in place and plenty of question marks as well.  First and foremost, the 49ers MUST do something at receiver.  Michael Crabtree disappears far too often, Anquan Boldin has been solid, but is 34 and Vernon Davis looks all but done.  Davis, in fact, looks completely done.  There needs to be major retooling in the off-season and you can expect San Francisco to spend a lot of time looking for receivers after striking out multiple times in recent years via the draft.  I think they’ll turn to more known and existing veteran players in ’15.  Look for an addition of my next guy on this list.

Q:  Does Josh Gordon end up with another team, in jail or suspended?

Frustrating, frustrating and frustrating.  All signs, traditional and neon alike, point to Gordon playing elsewhere in 2015.  Another off-season should scare the pants off of any owner of Gordon as that’s a lot of free time that Gordon has shown an incapability of managing well.  Some reports have surfaced that have said Gordon plans to train hard to take the league by storm in the future.  Talk is cheap until I see otherwise.  As a Gordon owner myself, my hope is for a change of scenery as I want nothing to do with a Manziel-to-Gordon combo.  There’s no arguing the sheer amount of talent he possesses and I’d love to see him end up on the end of Colin Kaepernick’s passes in San Francisco.  In fact, my belief is that there’s a 50% chance that occurs.  That may have taken a hit now with Harbaugh out of town but should Rex Ryan set up shop in Frisco, I think the game is back on.  Gordon needs a team with a strong leadership culture and the 49ers may not be able to provide that.  The Seahawks and Saints would make for intriguing destinations.  And hey, with marijuana being legal in the state of Washington, Gordon would feel right at home.

Q:  Who will be the next quarterback in Tampa Bay?

All signs point to Tampa Bay selecting Oregon’s Marcus Mariota first overall but, of course, nothing is guaranteed.  I like the Tampa Bay situation far more than most typical early-draft teams looking for a quarterback.  The Bucs badly need defensive help but expect them to address that side of the ball after tabbing their face of the franchise.  Mariota would inherit a relatively young team with young offensive weapons and could have nice upside out of the gate.  I’m far higher on Mariota than I am Jameis Winston and I don’t view either as a first round pick in fantasy unless you have a dire need at the position.  I’ve always liked Mike Glennon’s potential as well and would like to see him get another chance with a new team.

Q:  What will be the order of the big-three rookies?

I can’t recall a draft where I view the third rookie off the board as highly as I do the first.  But that’s exactly what we have in 2015, at least in my book.  Todd Gurley, until his ACL injury, was the clear choice at 1.01 in fantasy.  Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon has looked fantastic and put his stamp on the 1.01 with an incredible game vs. Auburn in the Outback bowl.  I just don’t see fantasy leaguers risking Gurley’s ACL injury when Gordon has looked so dominating.  Gordon is a different back than Gurley and reminds me a lot of a slightly thicker Jamaal Charles.  His patience, change of direction an acceleration through the hole are near elite.  What I like even more is Gordon’s work ethic off the field.

But let’s not just talk about the running backs.

Alabama’s Amari Cooper is a fine receiver and certain to be the first receiver off the board come draft day, both in the NFL and fantasy.  I expect Cooper to be selected at 1.06 or before in the NFL draft, a selection which bodes well for his production and career.  With SO much uncertainty surrounding running backs in the NFL, let alone their shorter careers, a selection of Cooper at 1.01 is a sneaky play for a coach with the guts to make it.  I can’t say I won’t be considering Cooper at 1.01 myself given the opportunity.  I’m down on running backs and rookie running backs taken highly don’t pan out very often.

There will be many more questions to be answered as we get further into the off-season, so stay tuned!

Follow me on Twitter:  @DLF_Jeff

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jeff haverlack