Dynasty Stock Market: Podcast Mock Draft, Part Two

Ryan McDowell Posted On January 4, 2015

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After some very kind feedback on last week’s DLF Dynasty Podcast and Dynasty Stock Market, I again joined Karl Safchick and Eric Hardter on this week’s podcast to continue our mock draft. If you missed last week’s pod, give it a listen as we drafted the first three rounds of a startup draft.

On the podcast, the three of us participated in a three round dynasty startup mock draft. Alternating picks and without a focus on team building, but rather a “best player available” mindset, we honed in on the players who could help us the most as we applied our different strategies.

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Again, as the guest, I was allowed the first pick, followed by Karl, then Eric. This order held true through all three rounds. Here are the picks, along with my thoughts on a few specific players.

4.01 Giovani Bernard, RB CIN
4.02 Tre Mason, RB STL
4.03 Michael Floyd, WR ARZ
4.04 Emmanuel Sanders, WR DEN
4.05 Julius Thomas, TE DEN
4.06 Andre Ellington, RB ARZ
4.07 Lamar Miller, RB MIA
4.08 Torrey Smith, WR BAL
4.09 Alfred Morris, RB WAS
4.10 Travis Kelce, TE KC
4.11 Golden Tate, WR DET
4.12 DeSean Jackson, WR WAS

As I mentioned on the podcast, Bengals’ running back Giovani Bernard stood out to me as a player who likely should’ve gone in the opening three rounds, so he was an easy pick to kick things off. While his value has taken a hit with the emergence of rookie Jeremy Hill, I think we may have overreacted. He still has a lot of value and can still be considered a fantasy starter.

It was said often during the podcast, but at this point in the draft, there are few “sure things” and it’s time to start taking some chances. Those chances could be on a young player who is unproven, on an older veteran who may not have much value left. The biggest risk I see in this round is Cardinals’ running back Andre Ellington. I have never been impressed with Ellington’s talent. The Cardinals were hesitant to use him as an every down back and only did so when Rashard Mendenhall’s surprise retirement forced their hand. To the surprise of no one, Ellington suffered a season ending injury. I hope Ellington can turn things around and prove me wrong, but I don’t see it happening.

After the first three rounds were dominated by the wide receiver position, we are starting to see running backs come off the boards. Startup drafts will be much different this off-season as owners chase young receivers in an effort to find the next Josh Gordon or Odell Beckham. This means the middle rounds, or as early as the fourth or fifth round will provide some value at other positions. Players like Bernard, Tre Mason and Julius Thomas are an example of this.

I foresee a battle for the TE3 spot happening this off-season. For now, it’s clearly the Broncos’ Julius Thomas holding down that spot, but can he maintain that value, especially if he leaves Denver? Every off-season, we see young, high upside players making a push up the draft board and gaining value. Sometimes that works out, but often times it doesn’t. While Travis Kelce is not all that young for a second year player, I do think he gains value as the off-season months drag on and should end up as the third tight end off the board.

Veteran receivers like Emmanuel Sanders, Golden Tate and DeSean Jackson may not look all that attractive on your off-season dynasty roster, but they get the job done when it counts. These players are often overlooked as we rush to find the next big thing, meaning these players can offer excellent draft and trade value for the next few months.

5.01 Jarvis Landry, WR MIA
5.02 Cam Newton, QB CAR
5.03 CJ Anderson, RB DEN
5.04 Percy Harvin, WR NYJ
5.05 Martavis Bryant, WR PIT
5.06 Russell Wilson, QB SEA
5.07 Isaiah Crowell, RB CLE
5.08 Eric Decker, WR NYJ
5.09 Jerick McKinnon, RB MIN
5.10 Kendall Wright, WR TEN
5.11 Marshawn Lynch, RB SEA
5.12 Julian Edelman, WR NE

The fifth round brought more gambles and a return to the rookie wide receiver well. Lost in the attention and hype surrounding players like Mike Evans and Sammy Watkins are the great performances this season by players like Jarvis Landry and Martavis Bryant. Both players, along with other rookies in the second tier, should make excellent trade targets this off-season while most are still fantasizing about how to get Odell Beckham on their dynasty team.

I love the CJ Anderson pick in the early fifth round. The past two years, the Broncos’ running back position has proven to be fantasy gold and Anderson has shown he’s simply better than both Montee Ball or Ronnie Hillman. While both of those players should be back and healthy, the job is Anderson’s for the taking.

Entering this part of the draft, I expected the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson to be the third quarterback off the board following his best fantasy season in his young career. While I wouldn’t argue Wilson as the third option behind Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers, I still prefer Cam Newton, and that is how the draft played out also. I like both picks in this range and see these two in their own tier above Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford and the others.

While I am normally against taking running backs even this early, I strongly approve of the Marshawn Lynch selection late in the fifth round. Depending what your first few picks look like, Lynch could be the type of difference making player who leads your team to a title in season one and looking at the young players you’d be risking

6.01 Cordarrelle Patterson, WR MIN
6.02 Charles Johnson, WR MIN
6.03 Zach Ertz, TE PHI
6.04 Christine Michael, RB SEA
6.05 Pierre Garcon, WR WAS
6.06 Greg Olsen, TE CAR
6.07 Mark Ingram, RB NO
6.08 Victor Cruz, WR NYG
6.09 Marqise Lee, WR JAX
6.10 Cody Latimer, WR DEN
6.11 Matt Ryan, QB ATL
6.12 Michael Crabtree, WR SF

The final round of our exercise brings some very tough picks. I opted for a pair of players who dynasty owners fall in love with during the off-season, then curse once the games kick off. Of course, I’m referring to Minnesota wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson and Seattle running back Christine Michael. Although I chose Patterson earlier, I actually think Michael if the safer pick of the two, if there is such a thing with these types of players. If Lynch does indeed leave Seattle, as has been long-rumored, Michael would have a very good chance at one of the top jobs in the game, running back for the Seahawks.

Patterson wasn’t the only Vikings’ receiver chosen. Karl selected Charles Johnson immediately after the Patterson pick and I thought this was one of the most interesting picks of the draft. There’s no denying Johnson looked better during his limited time with the team. In fact, it was Johnson who pushed Patterson from the starting lineup. For some reason I have a hard time accepting Johnson at this value point, but I may need to realize this is how he’s being valued now, following his breakout half-season.

We wrap up the draft much like we started it, with a focus on rookie wide receivers as Cody Latimer and Marqise Lee come off the board in this round. This bring the total to 13 rookie wideouts among the 72 players chosen, which is 18%.

Some other numbers as we wrap this up:

Number of total rookies selected: 18 (25%)
Number of quarterbacks selected: 5 (7%)
Number of running backs selected: 19 (26%)
Number of wide receivers selected: 42 (58%)
Number of tight ends selected: 6 (8%)

Some players who may have been the next players coming off the board include Bishop Sankey, Arian Foster, Kenny Stills, Latavius Murray, Jordan Reed, Drew Brees, Justin Hunter and more.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.