The Garbage Men
Those who have followed my work over the years know I live for the “off-season.” Having a full year’s worth of games in order to pore over the data and attempt to elucidate trends and forge future prognostications is what makes my dynasty engine push toward the redline. Simply put, I’m a stat guy and I want a full complement of numbers to crunch!
With that said, after watching week 17’s slate of games I’m having a bit of a crisis of faith as it pertains to the importance of the season’s final act. Getting to the point, is it even worth including these largely meaningless games into the season-long tally? Consider my argument against…
First and foremost, the vast majority of leagues conclude in week 16, rendering whatever happens afterward as immaterial with regards to fantasy relevance. Yes, the games are still being played, but the statistics accrued don’t help at all in a fantasy setting. As such, it’s my belief aberrant performances on either end of the spectrum only serve to muddy the waters and undermine 16 weeks worth of learning.
Perhaps more importantly though is the context of the games played. Four contests pitted playoff also-rans against one another, two teams (the Patriots and Colts) either rested starters or only played them for a half, two more teams (the Jets and Bears) were playing for lame-duck coaches while another two (the Falcons and Raiders) were, for all intents and purposes, doing the same. Connor Shaw and Chase Daniel were starting quarterbacks for crying out loud!
The culmination of these events, at least to me, provides an amateurish feel to the league’s concluding stanza. As such, it’s no surprise to see a relative preponderance of divergently good performances from players on whom we really couldn’t count for steady production earlier in the season. Essentially picking up the trash at the end of the year, they collectively comprise a group of fantasy garbage men.
The table below lists eight players who performed well above their means in week 17, at least as it relates to their prior season numbers. This includes both their final week tallies and the subsequent percentage of their yearly fantasy points (standard PPR scoring). The players are listed in a descending manner relative to the latter (rightmost column).
It should be noted, not shockingly, that seven of the eight reside on teams that missed the playoffs. Further magnifying that view, three-quarters of the octet above played in games between teams that were already eliminated from postseason contention. Once again, this does nothing to allay my concerns about including week 17 data in end-of-year rundowns.
Digging deeper, I want to look into each player on a case-by-case basis, and attempt to discern exactly what their respective outbursts mean in relation to the rest of their 2014 stats, as well as moving forward. So without further adieu, it’s time to make like Oscar the Grouch and dig into some garbage!
Michael Floyd, WR ARI
Pegged as a 2014 breakout, Floyd instead has a strong claim to the title of the year’s biggest fantasy disappointment. While he improved with regards to touchdowns and YPC, his receptions and yards dipped sharply compared to 2013, and he failed to corral even half of his targets. His week 17 performance essentially came out of nowhere, as it was only his third 100-yard effort of the season, and amazingly only the second time he recorded double-digit targets. All told, it accounted for over one-fifth of his fantasy production.
With that said, I’m willing to look at Floyd in a softer light. He’s one of only two players above whose contest carried some level of importance, as the Cardinals were still fighting for the NFC West division crown. Though his production made his final season tally look much better than it actually was, I’m still holding out a modicum of hope for 2015.
Eric Decker, WR NYJ
I’m truthfully not a fan of Decker from a fantasy standpoint, and as such you can imagine my shock when his proponents exclaimed his week 17 explosion was a sign of things to come. After all, it was only his second 100-plus yard performance of the year, and he was functioning merely as a high-end PPR WR4 prior to the addition of the 38.1 fantasy points (nearly one-fifth his yearly total) he accrued on Sunday. Digging deeper, the Jets’ passing numbers were virtually identical to 2013 (before Decker’s arrival), while new Bronco Emmanuel Sanders easily surpassed Decker’s Denver numbers despite quarterback Peyton Manning playing Duck Hunt for the last five games of the season. I’m still a believer that Decker is a solid football player, but not the WR1 he appeared to be while receiving the “Peyton Bump.”
If you can sell him based on this short burst of momentum I wouldn’t hesitate to do so. The Jets’ passing offense really can’t get any worse, but fellow receiver Percy Harvin is set to return and looked as good, if not better than Decker during his brief stint with Gang Green. At his best I struggle to see Decker as anything more than a low-end PPR WR2, and would urge caution in getting caught up in his most recent performance.
Geno Smith, QB NYJ
While I’m still not convinced Smith is a lost cause, it’s impossible to argue his sophomore season was little more than an extension of his forgettable rookie campaign. His turnover issues remained problematic, he didn’t score the ball with consistency and his rushing numbers actually took a step back. In fact, Smith alarmingly went over three months between propelling the Jets to victory.
Week 17 was easily his best game of the year, as he set seasonal bests in passing yards and touchdowns while more than doubling his YPA average. However, this will more than likely wind up a case as “too little, too late” with a new regime taking over come 2015. He’s a fine stash in deeper leagues or 2QB formats, but it ultimately wouldn’t be surprising if this goes down as the best game of his career.
Andre Johnson, WR HOU
Johnson is one of my favorite players in the league, and a true “golden oldie.” Unfortunately, some of the shine started to wear off in 2014 as #80 failed to clear 1,000 receiving yards (while playing in at least 13 games) for the first time since 2005. He ceded a large proportion of work to rising sophomore DeAndre Hopkins, while turning into more of a possession receiver, as evidenced by an 11.0 YPC average.
I’m willing to give Johnson some benefit of the doubt, as along with Floyd he actually had something to play for in week 17. With that said, he still posted three more receptions and 35 more yards than his previous season best, while amazingly breaking the century mark for the first time all season. With Case Keenum (28 targets to Johnson in two games) likely back to holding a clipboard next year, there’s little to no reason to view Sunday’s line as a sign of things to come for the venerable receiver.
Doug Martin, RB TB
Martin has actually been playing well for the last month of the season, and against the Saints he surpassed 100 yards for the first time all year. While that’s certainly an accomplishment, it should be noted that Tampa’s Sunday opponents, the Saints, were second worst against the run amongst all teams (4.8 YPC against). Perhaps more importantly, the Muscle Hamster only recorded one more carry than teammate Charles Sims, despite vastly out-producing him. 13.4% of his yearly points isn’t a monstrous number, but nevertheless stands out as an outlier – given that, along with the competition from Sims, I’d be hesitant to invest heavily in Martin.
Jordan Matthews, WR PHI
As the only rookie on the list I’m willing to take a softer viewpoint on Matthews’ week 17 numbers. Incremental improvement is expected for first year players, and as such J-Matt’s final game can and should be viewed as a positive. I still think Matthews possesses PPR WR2 appeal in dynasty leagues, but merely want to caution against excessive expectations. Week 17 represented 12.1% of his seasonal numbers, and was the first time he exceeded 60 yards in over a month – Matthews certainly has the potential to make good on those numbers in the future, but the victory over the Giants still represents an outlier.
Rueben Randle, WR NYG
Randle’s garbage time binge actually extends to a week 16 clash against the Rams (6-132-1), and over these two weeks he actually achieved 25.7% of his yearly PPR points. Prior to that he could’ve fought tooth and nail with Floyd above as to who was the bigger fantasy disappointment on the season. This past Sunday represented his highest yardage output of the season, as well as only the third time he eclipsed 100 yards. Perhaps more importantly, he’s seen rookie revelation Odell Beckham run laps around him, while also proving less efficient than fellow receiving options Victor Cruz and Larry Donnell earlier in the season. With Cruz coming back and the best of Beckham likely still ahead of us, it’s hard to get behind Randle’s recent relevance as a strong vision of the future.
Lamar Miller, RB MIA
Miller truthfully doesn’t really belong on this list, even though over one-tenth of his production came in a meaningless scrum against the division rival Jets. He’s been good all year, surpassing 5.0 YPC on the season while also eclipsing 1,000 rushing yards. With that said, Miller nevertheless topped 100 yards for only the second time, while tying a season high with 19 carries and besting his previous season high by 70 yards. While I wouldn’t expect this weekly ceiling as the norm in 2015, I believe it’s actually a good sign of things to come for the young ball carrier.
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