Do “Win Now” Trades Work?
Do “win now” trades work in dynasty leagues? It seems like a fairly easy question to answer, but it has a variety of elements that make it more complicated than it seems. Last week, I asked the twitter world if they made any “win now” trades in their dynasty leagues and how their teams ended up as a result. I received 34 answers on the topic, and below I will examine a few of those and how they relate to whether or not win now trades are a winning or losing proposition in dynasty leagues.
What qualifies as a win in a “win now” trade?
Often times this depends on the expectations of the owner at the time of the trade, along with league payouts in money leagues. For me, when I make a “win now” trade, I am doing so with the intentions the trade will help me win a championship that year, and anything short of that will be a disappointment. However, that isn’t the case for everyone/every time.
@SkinnyElvis traded Allen Robinson, Shane Vereen and a 2015 1st for Jordy Nelson to improve his chances at a 2015 championship, while Elvis didn’t come away with a championship, he did come away with a 3rd place finish and the highest scoring points in the league which was good for doubling his league buy-in.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
Why Win Now Trades Work
Getting you that Championship!
Whether it is redraft, dynasty or daily, the goal is to win no matter what. This is kind of the gist of the win now trade, sacrificing your future for a better shot at a championship.
@The__JRod traded two assets not producing in their rookie years – Cody Latimer and Bishop Sankey for Arian Foster in pursuit of a championship and he ended up coming out on top and getting that title. Win now trades like this are a losing “value” proposition from the get-go as both Latimer and Sankey will rise in value this off-season while the value of Foster decreases, but it is all worth it because Foster helped bring Jarid Antonio his championship. Not every win now trade has to be monumental, sometimes it’s the little moves that make the difference between a 2nd place finish and a championship.
@PantherHands traded Ladarius Green for Jason Witten, Witten put up 22 points in the championship and won it for Marc Jordan. Green has all the upside in the world, but Witten is the one putting up points right now and that is one Marc needed to come out on top.
Some win-now trades can still work even if you don’t win.
@HeyMattK made a trade similar to the one @The__JRod made – he gave up Isaiah Crowell, Jarvis Landry and Donte Moncrief for Arian Foster, it didn’t work out quite as well for him as he lost in the finals, but the trade isn’t a complete loss because it’s not like Arian Foster is done scoring fantasy points, Foster could help deliver him a championship next year which would help make the trade look a little better than it does right now.
@Ace_Luke made a win now trade mid-season, trading Josh Gordon and a 2nd round rookie pick for Mike Evans. Following the acquisition, Luke’s team went on a 5-game winning streak and he went from eighth place at the time of the trade to a third place finish. In addition to the third place finish this year, Luke comes away with Mike Evans who has a bright future and doesn’t have all of the risk and question marks Josh Gordon carries.
Why win now trades don’t work
Luck: It is no secret that the fantasy football playoffs have an element of luck in them. Earlier this season, I highlighted some ways to Fix The Fantasy Playoffs. No matter how good your team is, even if you make a win-now trade to make you the prohibitive favorite in the playoffs, that is far from a guarantee that you will come away with a championship.
Past performance and reputation doesn’t always equal greater success.
@YusufRafle made a pair of win now trades that actually ended up hurting his chances of winning now. He traded Odell Beckham Jr. and Keenan Allen for Julio Jones. While that may have seemed like a good deal midseason, Beckham was the best receiver in fantasy at the end of the season and his win now traded ended up hurting @YusufRafle’s chances at a championship and he lost by 52 in the finals.
Injuries or suspensions can also have an adverse influence.
Injuries can happen to anyone at any time – that’s just how the NFL is, but when a player gets injured after you acquire him in a win-now trade, that can just be back-breaking for your team.
@MegatronFF traded a 1st/3rd/4th for Andre Ellington when he was 10-0 in his dynasty league, Ellington was out for the entire fantasy playoffs with an injury and Marc Hava lost his semifinal matchup by 74, so even with a healthy Andre Ellington, his win now trade wasn’t going to result in a 2014 championship.
Win now trades aren’t limited to inseason acquisitions, either, @willo1904 had a lineup of Aaron Rodgers, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, TY Hilton and Jimmy Graham. Chris Wilson thought he needed one more piece to put him over the top, so he traded for Adrian Peterson. Peterson only played one game this season due to a suspension and Chris was bounced in the first round of the fantasy playoffs.
Final Results
Out of the 34 responses, 11 came out as champions following their “win now” trades. Now this isn’t exactly a scientific study, mostly because many times people are quicker to talk about their successes than their failures and it’s hard to quantify how much each person’s odds increased following their trades. The two main things I take away from this are making win now trades certainly don’t guarantee a championship, but they do help. If we look at it like each team had a ⅙ chance at the championship because of all of the luck involved, the win now traders nearly doubled their odds at a championship. If you made a win now trade this season, please share the results in the comments section, the more examples we have, the more accurate of a picture we can paint as to whether or not “win now” trades work.
[/am4show]
- Dynasty Commish Calendar: August - August 5, 2023
- Dynasty Commish Calendar: June - June 9, 2023
- Dynasty Commish Calendar: May - May 3, 2023
