Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Sixteen

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. We’ll pick one player from each team who we have our eye on and describe why their weekend performance is a key one for them in relation to their dynasty value.

Early Games

Baltimore at Houston

After a promising rookie season, Marlon Brown has largely been invisible within the Baltimore offense. Last week, Brown saw a season high five targets, catching all of them for 66 yards as Torrey Smith was still struggling with his leg injury. This week, Brown faces a Houston secondary which has allowed the most receptions to wide receivers this season. He should still be on dynasty radars for 2015 and a strong finish could raise his value in time for the offseason.

A series of quarterback injuries has presumably left Case Keenum as the best remaining option for Houston. While not an appealing choice on the surface, Keenum’s 2013 yards per attempt (7.0) was higher than Tom Brady or Matt Ryan. He should be able to maintain value for DeAndre Hopkins (if he plays) while taking advantage of a very suspect Baltimore secondary who leads the league in yards allowed to wide receivers.

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Detroit at Chicago

In his second year, Ezekiel Ansah has shown tremendous progress beyond the pass rushing skills he came into the NFL with. He has already doubled his tackle totals from his rookie year (17 total to 36 in 2014) while increasing his sack output (from nine to ten). Ansah had a sack along with nine quarterback hurries in the first game with Chicago and with a new quarterback starting; he could have another great game.

The surprise Jay Cutler benching leads to an opportunity for Jimmy Clausen. While his success in the NFL has been non-existent, Clausen was a highly sought after high school quarterback and did well at Notre Dame. There is talent here and he has a good wide receiving corps, but the matchup is brutal as Detroit has a solid secondary and a ferocious pass rush. If he can navigate this game, Clausen could create an interesting conundrum for the Bears’ front office.

Kansas City at Pittsburgh

An undrafted rookie wide receiver, Albert Wilson has seen roughly 50 snaps in the last two weeks – this has resulted in seven catches on 12 targets for the former Georgia State Panther, both leading the Chiefs’ receiving core in this timeframe. Wilson is a nice speculative stash option for owners looking to replace a veteran at the end of their bench. Watch his play over the next two weeks and see if he continues to be a reliable option for Alex Smith.

2013 first rounder Jarvis Jones has struggled trying to find a role in the Steelers’ defense. Jones missed over two months this season, returning in week 14 and slowly being reintroduced by the Steelers to the rotation. There is still potential here, but he is running out of chances to make an impact. I will be watching the next two games to see how he fits into their future plans.

New England at New York Jets

Lost in the running back carousel has been Shane Vereen, who has seen a decrease in usage and snaps since LaGarrette Blount joined the team. Vereen is a free agent after the season and may look for a change in scenery given the inconsistent playing time in New England. In this matchup, Vereen could get his number called more as the Jets allow the fourth fewest yards per rush (3.46). He needs a chance to showcase his skills before the offseason and drum up interest amongst other NFL teams.

A concussion derailed the progress of rookie Jace Amaro this year although the constant shifts in offensive philosophy has not helped. Amaro only saw one target in the game last week against Tennessee but he could be in line for more with this matchup. New England is dominant against opposing wide receivers but allows the second most receiving yards to tight ends. The ability is here and the offseason could see a quarterback change so this may be the end of the buy low phase for the rookie tight end.

Cleveland at Carolina

The sample was small for Johnny Manziel last week, but his intended passes were spread out amongst his receiving core pretty evenly. Josh Gordon and Andrew Hawkins each received four targets to lead the team while Jordan Cameron was largely a decoy in the game (just one target). There is a lot of talent on this team and Carolina has a lousy pass defense so this is another chance to see how Manziel progresses and who he starts to rely on.

With the defensive line in transition this year due to Greg Hardy’s off-field transgressions, Mario Addison has become a surprising source of sacks for the team. He currently leads the team with eight sacks in a limited role (under 30 snaps per game), including three sacks in the last four games. Addison is undersized at just 254 pounds but with Hardy’s future uncertain, he could be playing into a bigger opportunity in 2015. Oh yeah, he’s also playing a quarterback this week who is starting just the second game of his career.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay

Since taking over a starting safety spot in week seven, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix has had five games (out of seven) with at least seven total tackles, justifying his first round rookie status. Most pundits expected him to play well against the run but his pass defense has been solid with a 54% catch rate against and zero touchdowns allowed. Clinton-Dix has 100 tackle potential at the safety spot, especially considering the high octane Green Bay offense forces teams to play from behind frequently.

The emergence of Mike Evans has casted a large shadow over Vincent Jackson. Jackson is on his way to another 1,000 yard receiving season (he is at 931 yards right now) and has eight games with double digit targets (tied for fourth in the NFL with 130 targets overall). The disappointing stat is the two touchdowns, partially attributable to Evans and partially to the lackluster quarterback options in Tampa Bay. Jackson is the type of veteran option that can be acquired for a discount and contribute at a high level for a contending dynasty team.

Minnesota at Miami

The preseason hype train had Kyle Rudolph as a young breakout candidate for a resurging Vikings’ offense. An unfortunate injury and turmoil at many of the offensive positions have made it tough for Rudolph to get a good foot hold in 2014. Last week saw Rudolph receive seven targets and caught all of them for 69 yards, perhaps establishing a rhythm with rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. With the snap counts gradually increasing, Rudolph should end the season well and be ready for a post-breakout year breakout.

Speaking of young tight ends that were looking to breakout in 2014, Charles Clay has made a nice late season run. Four of his last five games have had at least five catches and over 40 yards receiving, rekindling the 2013 rapport with Ryan Tannehill. Clay is a great underneath option for the Dolphins and has opened up other parts of the field for Mike Wallace and Jarvis Landry. This is an offense that continues to trend upwards and Clay should remain a part of it moving forward.

Atlanta at New Orleans

The Atlanta skill players all have plus matchups here so it is hard to pick one player to highlight. With the uncertainty around wide receiver, I will highlight Matt Ryan and the season he is having. Just nine rushing yards away (132 currently) from a career high, owners are thrilled with his scrambling ability. Oh wait, no one cares about that. How about that this is his fourth straight season of 4,000 yards passing and his fifth straight season of at least 26 touchdown passes? Many dynasty owners, myself included, tend to go for the upside plays but having a few consistent options is a great way to limit the weekly variation in scoring.

While three running backs have over twenty catches in the Saints’ offense, only one has more than 75 carries this season. That player of course is Mark Ingram who decided in a contract year to make a run at 1,000 yards rushing (at 869 currently) and prove to be a workhorse back with 18 carries per game. Ideally, he would remain with the Saints and get to face the worst run defense in the league (Atlanta) twice per season. Ingram is a player to watch this offseason as a change of scenery may not be a positive for the young runner.

Afternoon Games

New York Giants at Saint Louis

An article earlier this week on DLF spoke of the future of Rueben Randle, but I think Preston Parker may be the better long-term option. Parker actually outsnapped Randle last week (37 to 32) while both received four targets from Eli Manning. Overall, Parker has the better catch rate (65% to 57%) and has been better in the slot replacing Victor Cruz, showing a more sophisticated route tree. Both players have another year left on their contracts and with Cruz a question mark going forward, Manning may prefer the more dependable Parker to the enigma Randle.

Unsurprisingly, Jared Cook has shown the flashes of brilliance and bouts of mediocre play that has defined his career. His last three games exemplify this with a zero catch (one drop) week 13, a two touchdown performance in week 14, and a three catch for 22 yards week 15. The numbers at the end of the year should look serviceable and he still has 3 years and $21 million left on his contract, but dynasty owners do not need to invest in Cook. The Giants are a neutral matchup although I am not sure what to expect from him.

Indianapolis at Dallas

With the division in hand and no real shot at a first round bye, the Colts may elect to sit T.Y. Hilton in favor of Donte Moncrief. Hilton tweaked his hamstring during the first half last week and will be needed for a playoff run. Meanwhile, the rookie Moncrief has flashed his enormous potential with two 100 yard receiving games this year and sticky hands with a 71% catch rate that leads the Colts’ receiving core. I have been on the bandwagon all season and will ride it into 2015 where Moncrief should become the starter opposite Hilton.

DeMarco Murray is still questionable and likely will be until right before game time. That is frustrating for the many owners that rode him to the title game. Meanwhile, owners that stashed Joseph Randle are equally as confused since the Colts represent a plus matchup for whichever running back is given the bulk of the carries. There is no best case scenario that fits everyone as dynasty owners in championship games likely have Murray or are playing against him. Good luck!

Buffalo at Oakland

As if the running back situation in Buffalo hasn’t been confusing enough, it appears that C.J. Spiller is expected to return this Sunday. Spiller is averaging the highest per carry average (4.2) of the Bills’ running backs and is tied for the lead with three runs of 15+ yards despite having less carries than Anthony Dixon and Fred Jackson. As another free agent running back to be, Spiller is looking to make his statement against the fifth worst defense against the run.

A team that has been struggling all season, Oakland may have found a nice contributor in seventh round rookie cornerback T.J. Carrie. He allows an 86.3 quarterback rating against, best among the regular Oakland cornerbacks. Add in 40 solo tackles despite playing roughly 50% of the team snaps and he has upside with a regular role. Carrie is not a top flight option but in deep IDP leagues where depth comes at a premium, this is a flyer worth taking.

Sunday Night Game

Seattle at Arizona

The reappearance of Tony Moeaki was going well but injury has his week 16 status in doubt. As such, let’s turn to a preseason highlight of DLF in Luke Willson, a player that has struggled with concentration (53% catch rate) and pass blocking (fourth on the team in pass blocking efficiency via Pro Football Focus). Willson will have another chance here against Arizona, the team allowing the most receiving yards to tight ends.

I am sure Ryan Lindley is a nice guy, but this matchup is brutal and he could be in line for the worst quarterback performance of the season. The lame duck passes (4.3 career yards per attempt) make Bruce Gradkowski (5.7) look like a rocket-armed quarterback by comparison. I am uncomfortable starting any Cardinals’ offensive player in this matchup and will only watch this game if my friend Jim Beam makes an appearance in my glass several times over.

Monday Game

Denver at Cincinnati

As someone who plays daily fantasy for fun, I have done plenty of research on C.J. Anderson this week and will be confidently starting him everywhere I can. This, though, is a dynasty website first and his ascension to the lead role and usage (30+ touches in three of the last four games) has been astounding. Anderson is the best fit for this offense given his versatility as a runner, receiver, and pass blocker (most efficient among the runners with just three pressures on over 200 passing downs). Now he gets the Bengals’ run defense who is in the bottom five for total yardage allowed to running backs and touchdowns.

Jermaine Gresham has been a safety valve for Andy Dalton all season but could be useful here for dynasty owners in a pinch. Gresham has a 78% catch rate that has resulted in 50 receptions including three touchdowns in the last four games. Meanwhile, Denver allows the second most receptions and sixth most yards in the league to tight ends. Gresham may be a blocking tight end first, but he should get some passes thrown his way and perhaps a touchdown to boot.

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