Daily Optimized Lineup: Week Sixteen

TheFFGhost
ingram

As part of our expanded focus we partnered up with FanDuel, a true leader in the daily fantasy sphere to provide an incredible experience from research, to play, all the way through to winning. Between DLF and FanDuel we fully expect our readers to have the best daily fantasy football experience on the internet.

As part of that experience, we at DLF felt it might be of particular interest to our readers to provide them with an optimized lineup that they should be able to plug into a Head to Head or 50/50 game and fully expect to win some money.

It’s hard to believe we have just two weeks left in the regular season. It seems like only a few weeks ago we were preparing to kick the fantasy season off. The good thing about daily fantasy is you don’t have to make the playoffs to keep playing all season long. The final weeks of the season tend to get very interesting and make for some of the most fun in daily when they finally come around. It also never hurts when you can try to recoup your dynasty losses with just a few games at the end of the season. Luckily that’s what Ghost and George are here for week after week, providing you top notch advice to help you win your games. So get back up, dust yourself off and head over to FanDuel and try to close your season out on a winning note:

Quarterback – Tom Brady – $9,700

Tom Brady has seen his price rise steadily after starting off the season slowly. Now, this week he’s risen all the way back up to his former heights, coming in as the third most expensive quarterback this week on FanDuel. No matter, Brady should have a great outing versus a Jets defense that couldn’t even put up much of a fight against the lowly Titans last week. New England is coming into the game with the sixth most passing yards per game in the NFL and the fourth most passing touchdowns per game. Meanwhile, the Jets are giving up the third most passing touchdowns per game. A further indication the Patriots could do some damage versus the Jets is centered around the fact that nearly three quarters of all yards gained against the Jets come through the air, the fifth most in the NFL. Brady should have a lot of opportunities and I figure he has the experience to make the most of them.

Projected Stat Line – 26 completions for 320 yards and three touchdowns

Follow-Up – Drew Brees ($9200) – Brees came through with flying colors last week posting a monster game where he threw for 375 yards and three touchdowns making him a great play at any price. His 27.2 fantasy points, despite being huge, weren’t even his highest total of the season either. If nothing else though his performance should silence his “he’s getting too old” clients for another week or two, especially if the Saints can hold on to their playoff spot and ultimately do some damage with a couple wins.

Running Back – Mark Ingram – $7,400

Mark Ingram was one of the few participants in last week’s Monday night game who I didn’t select but he gets the nod this week against a marginal rush defense put up by the Falcons. It’s no secret that Atlanta isn’t really that good at defending the pass, that much is clear. However, given the Saints ability and desire to pass often I expect Ingram to get a lot of sneaky rushing plays to help throw the Falcons off. An interesting statistic that also bears some mentioning is the fact that Atlanta is giving up a league worst 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game while the Saints are the fourth highest in the NFL in regards to rushing touchdowns per game with roughly one being scored per game. Odds are good that Ingram can come away with at least a touchdown to show for his troubles on Sunday.

Projected Stat Line – 18 rushes for 80 yards and one touchdown, two receptions for 25 receiving yards.

Follow-Up – Latavius Murray ($6,500) – Last week Kansas City was able to contain Murray much better than their first meeting. The Chiefs were able to limit him to 59 rushing yards and two receptions for 17 yards. That performance wasn’t all that far off from what we expected except for the fat that he didn’t find the endzone, that hurt.

Running Back – Tre Mason – $6,500

[inlinead]Tre Mason has now firmly established himself as the running back in St. Louis. This change occurred roughly a third of the way through the season and the Rams haven’t looked back since. This week Mason has a nice matchup versus the Giants, a team giving up the fourth most touchdowns per game and roughly one per outing. To make matters worse for the Giants, they are giving up the third most rushing yards per game in the NFL. The Rams meanwhile are scoring the second must rushing touchdowns in the NFL over the past three weeks. Given New York’s issues defending the run, I expect Mason to get a health amount of work and definitely outperform his price point this week.

Projected Stat Line – 22 rushes for 105 yards and one touchdown, two receptions for 30 yards

Follow-Up – Matt Forte ($9,000) – The Bears simply could not find a way to get their offense going against the Saints. This was due in large part to Jay Cutler stinking up the joint with turnover after turnover. Due to his quarterback’s horrible play, Forte was only able to pull in two receptions on the night despite having an absolutely prime matchup. Forte’s two receptions were the lowest total of the season and made Forte’s price simply unsustainable in a successful lineup, especially because he was also unable to find the endzone. Damn you Cutler!

Wide Receiver – Jordy Nelson – $8,800

Jordy Nelson just didn’t look like himself last week and his price dipped as a result. Now, can you remember any time recently where Jordy has been in a slump? Yeah, me neither. Therefore, I fully expect him to bounce back in a nice way against a Tampa Bay team who just gets manhandled on defense regularly. The Buccaneers are giving up the ninth most passing yards per game in the NFL and the fifth most passing touchdowns per game. It may surprise no one on the other hand that the Packers are pretty good at passing the ol’ pigskin around. Green Bay has thrown for the third most passing yards in the NFL over the past three games and have thrown for the third most touchdowns per game in the NFL this season. Jordy, of course, has been a big part of the reason for those statistics and given his price dip I’d feel great buying him up at a bargain.

Projected Stat Line – Eight receptions for 115 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Alshon Jeffery ($8,400) – Jeffery, for the most part, escaped Cutler’s disastrous night but he didn’t come away smelling like roses either. For as good as his matchup and situation was with the absence of Brandon Marshall, Jeffery should have had an absolutely huge game. Instead, he performed pretty much in the middle of his range this season by posting 15.8 fantasy points. Far for a horrible night, but also far from his best performance of the season as well. Basically, I consider this pick a wash in the grand scheme of this lineup.

Wide Receiver – Julian Edelman – $7,600

I’m advocating Julian Edelman here because if Tom Brady is going to have a good game (which I think he will), then Edelman is going to be a big part of that success. Now, understand he is dealing with a mild concussion that he suffered against Miami last week so his condition should be monitored coming into the game but if he plays he should get a pretty good amount of targets against a Jets defense that will have its hands full. As I mentioned above, the Jets defense is giving up large amounts of yard through the air and as one of Brady’s prime targets Edelman should see a good number of targets if Brady is to do well. I really like this stack as Edelman is a very consistent option with really nice upside given the right match-up, which I feel the Jets are.

Projected Stat Line – Five receptions for 110 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Kenny Stills ($6,100) – Stills hit our reception projection but missed on the yardage target and also didn’t find the endzone. He came in a touch high in terms of price versus production but nothing that would prevent a lineup that contains him from performing well.

Wide Receiver – Damaris Johnson – $4,500

Wait, what? Hear me out. Ryan Fitzpatrick just went down last week with a broken leg and guess who has been keeping Johnson’s fantasy value low. Yep, Fitzpatrick. Why do I say that? Well, when Ryan Mallett got the start for two game in the middle of the season, Johnson suddenly had two of his best games of the season. Now, do I expect a monster game from Johnson? No, certainly not, but there is reason to believe that an inexperienced quarterback stepping into the starting role this week will be looking for short passes to help settle in and get some confidence. Additionally, Houston’s opponent Baltimore isn’t exactly strong against the pass, giving up the third most passing yards in the NFL this season. So why not Andre Johnson or DeAndre Hopkins? Well, first off they’re too expensive. Secondly, Baltimore is only giving up ten and a half yards per completion, the eighth least yards per completion in the NFL. This could indicate that shorter routes are most effective against the Ravens. Given the price and the way the statistics are pointing Johnson could be a high risk, high reward player that we can slot in to help boost our lineup elsewhere.

Projected Stat Line – Five receptions for 70 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Marquess Wilson ($4,500) – Well Wilson performed above his price tag but the results were anything but pretty. If not for his touchdown (which we projected) he would have been a complete bust as he caught three receptions for a measly 16 yards. Once again Cutler didn’t help his cause any but considering each of the Bears receivers we promoted as options last week got touchdowns, we can’t be too picky.

Tight End – Travis Kelce – $5,600

Travis Kelce has appeared in this article quite a few times through the year but only now is he really heating up and becoming consistent. This week Kelce and the Chiefs face the Steelers in a game that they are going to have to pass a lot in order to keep pace and give them a chance to win. Luckily for Kelce, Pittsburgh is giving up the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Normally it’s not a matchup I’d immediately jump towards, but Kelce could be the hottest tight end in the NFL  with 12 receptions for 169 yards and one touchdown over the past two games. I expect Kelce to be targeted heavily by Kansas City and continue his hot streak with a solid performance on Sunday.

Projected Stat Line – Six receptions for 85 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Jimmy Graham ($6,900) – On any other day a five receptions for 87 yards day would be great but when you factor in that this is Jimmy Graham we’re talking about here you immediately discount this performance. However, the real kick in the teeth is the fact that Josh Hill, the Saints third string tight end, caught two touchdowns to Graham’s zero. Now that’s annoying.

Kicker – Matt Bryant – $4,800

In a matchup against New Orleans, where offense will be the order of the day, the Falcons should be able to give Matt Bryant a lot of opportunities to pile up the points. Luckily enough for the Falcons, New Orleans is giving up the fourth most fantasy points to kickers this season. Finally in a matchup where the over/under is a healthy 56 points, Bryant should get more than enough opportunities, whether they be extra points or field goals, to justify taking him at this price tag.

Projected Stat Line – Two field goals, three extra points

Follow-Up – Cairo Santos ($4,500) – Santos should have had a much better day than he had. Ultimately he still did well considering Kansas City blew out the Raiders and allowed him to get four extra points. The unfortunate part of this pick is that Santos missed two field goals which would have really made this an incredible selection. If he made those kicks he would have likely gone over 20 points. Did I mention how much kickers annoy me?

Defense – Buffalo Bills – $5,100

The Buffalo Bills are one of the more expensive defenses this week but when you have just come off of a great performance against one of the premiere offenses in the NFL and this week you face the Raiders, it’s really difficult to imagine a scenario in which your price tag won’t be high. First, the Raiders are giving up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Second, Buffalo is allowing the fifth least passing yards per game in the NFL. Third, the Bills are giving up the least passing touchdowns in the NFL. Oakland just appears heavily overmatched in this contest and I can’t believe that Oakland will succeed where Green Bay failed.

Projected Stat Line – 10 points against, four sacks and two interceptions

Follow-Up – New York Jets ($4,900) – The Jets are yet another pick who squandered their opportunity this week. Playing against the Titans, the Jets should have easily hit double digit points. Instead they posted a seven point performance against one of the worst offenses in the league. The Jets gave up both a rushing touchdown and receiving touchdown which is really surprising given the banged up nature of the Titans already miserable offense. There is just really no way to defend this performance, none at all.

George Kritikos’ is up next. Good luck as always George!

Quarterback – Matthew Stafford – $8,200

[inlinead]I love the price of Stafford as he is the 11th highest quarterback despite the great matchup. Chicago allows more passing touchdowns (34) than any other team and is third in yardage allowed. Considering he had 390 passing yards and two touchdowns in their first meeting, Stafford has the ability to take advantage. With the Lions still jockeying for playoff positioning, Stafford will be needed to keep the team in the hunt. I expect him to surpass the 20 fantasy point threshold for the third time in the last four weeks with multiple touchdown passes and over 300 yards.

Projected Stat Line – 27 completions, 360 yards, three touchdowns

Follow-Up – Derek Anderson ($5,000) – The low price was extremely attractive and Anderson was more than worth it. 277 passing yards (and another 14 rushing) with a passing touchdown was a solid day. The only concern here was the potential for turnovers and Anderson avoided them completely (a far cry from his past experience). With Cam Newton likely coming back this week, Anderson’s value was a one-time opportunity that worked out well.

Running Back – C.J. Anderson – $7,800

As many fantasy players will attest to, it is hard to find a bellcow back. In Anderson, you have a running back that has surpassed 30 touches in three of the last four weeks. Add in five touchdowns in that timeframe and you have a back who should be able to put up some big numbers. With Cincinnati on tap, Anderson gets to face a run defense that is bottom ten in rushing yards allowed and bottom five in receiving yards and rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs. With Peyton Manning coming off a rough week, the team may elect to ride their young runner in this plus matchup. Expectations of 100+ yards rushing and strong usage in the passing game and the red zone make for a fruitful day.

Projected Stat Line – 28 rushes, 160 yards, three catches, 30 yards, two touchdowns

Follow-Up – Le’Veon Bell ($9,600) – As usual, Bell did not disappoint. He may not have gotten the expected yards (119 total) but managed to find the end zone twice. The five receptions were a nice bonus as he took advantage of the awful Atlanta defense. When building a weekly lineup, Bell is the type of cornerstone you need to have as part of a winning roster.

Running Back – Mark Ingram – $7,400

This is a bit of a gamble given the instability of the Saints’ running game but the matchup and the game’s implications are hard to ignore. Atlanta allows the most rushing touchdowns (20) and are among the worst in yardage allowed to running backs. Given the “fight” for the NFC South crown and the Saints are going to need to use every weapon in their utility belt to make sure they pull out a victory. Ingram has run hard all season and he gets his number called more frequently in great matchups like this. He should find the end zone on one of his carries and see over 20 touches in this game.

Projected Stat Line – 23 rushes, 115 yards, two catches, 15 yards, one touchdown

Follow-Up – Isaiah Crowell ($6,500) – Crowell was a disappointment as he was dinged up and was completely ineffective. Handling just ten carries (which still outpaced Terrance West by two) for 17 yards, Crowell was a poor performer after hurting his hip early in the game. This is an instance to chalk up to unforeseen circumstances. Now, I would avoid him this week as it is likely that Crowell is still feeling the soreness that accompanied his injury.

Wide Receiver – Calvin Johnson – $9,200

Based on my write up of Stafford, I am anticipating a great game from this passing offense. With Johnson looking 100% and having dominated the first matchup against the Bears, he is priced this high for a reason. There is no corner on the Bears who can matchup here so Johnson will likely have a field day. I am investing heavily in Megatron as I believe he has one of those games that wins you money.

Projected Stat Line – nine catches, 150 yards, two touchdowns

Follow-Up – Antonio Brown ($9,100) – The reason Brown gets priced so well is that the floor is so high for him. With ten catches and 123 yards, Brown delivered in every way other than finding the end zone. There is no reason to avoid Brown as he is proven to be matchup proof and despite the lack of standout physical attributes, he can deliver elite level games on a weekly basis.

Wide Receiver – Donte Moncrief – $5,900

With T.Y. Hilton looking more unlikely to play here, Moncrief seems like a steal at this price. He already owns two 100 yard games this season and in both of those, he managed at least one touchdown. Moncrief has big play ability and Andrew Luck is the type of quarterback who can take advantage. Dallas is not an easy matchup but this has the looks of a shootout, especially if Dallas has another chance at the division title. Moncrief should be able to break a long one for a touchdown and will take advantage of the targets he is given.

Projected Stat Line – four catches, 75 yards, one touchdown

Follow-up – T.Y. Hilton ($8,800) – Another player on this roster who suffered an injury in last week’s game. Hilton managed four catches and 50 yards despite tweaking his hamstring in the first quarter of the game. With three catches in the first quarter prior to when the injury seemed to occur, Hilton was obviously impacted by it. Hilton is another avoid for this week as it looks like the Colts could hold him out knowing that they have the division and a first round bye is going to be difficult to come by.

Wide Receiver – Kenny Stills – $6,100

I can’t stop buying Stills as his production has largely been positive relative to price the last four weeks. He has at least five receptions in three of the last four games and has been a solid option for Drew Brees as he is catching 81% of his passes on the season. As bad as Atlanta has been against the run, they are not much better defending the pass. The secondary is prone to the big play (league high 15.7 yards per reception against) and have given up the third highest yards to wide receivers overall. Stills should be able to break something long for a touchdown here. Even if he doesn’t, his abilities in the intermediate game have improved and will provide a safe floor.

Projected Stat Line – five catches, 80 yards, one touchdown 

Follow-Up – Kenny Stills ($6,100) – Stills bounced back from a poor week 14 to put up a solid line. With five catches and 67 yards, all that was missing from his stat line was the elusive touchdown catch. Chicago was predictably awful defending the pass all night and Stills has done well when facing lackluster pass defenses. As seen above, I am rolling with Stills again in another plus matchup with the expectation that he will be again targeted frequently.

Tight End – Travis Kelce – $5,600

The hype for Baby Gronk has been rampant all season and the flashes are there. In the last two weeks, he has a 100 yard game (Kelce’s first of the season) and a five catch performance with a touchdown. Pittsburgh is one of six teams to have given up double digit touchdowns to tight ends so he has a plus matchup on tap. Kelce is seeing more snaps (roughly 80% in the last two weeks) and has become Alex Smith’s number one target. Another trip to the end zone with a fair number of catches is a reasonable outlook for the young up and comer.

Projected Stat Line – five catches, 60 yards, one touchdown

Follow-Up – Antonio Gates ($5,500) – It was pretty scary how close I was in predicting his stat line. The six catches, 54 yards, and a receiving touchdown was right in line with the 5/60/1 that I laid out last week. Denver has been soft to tight ends over the season and Gates has been responsible for three touchdowns in two divisional games. With Gates not an option this week being in a Saturday game, the crop at tight end is down one solid option for week 16.

Kicker – Shayne Graham – $4,700

Graham has been hit or miss for me when I have used him this year. I am betting big on the Saints this week to deliver and his price is right given the offense and being indoors for this matchup.

Projected Stat Line – two field goals, three extra points 

Follow-Up – Kai Forbath ($4500) – Forbath met expectations here, managing a pair of field goals and an extra point. That’s a decent return at the minimum price. He is another player in a Saturday game so he won’t be in the standard daily pool. Not a huge loss however since his replacement value is pretty low.

Defense – Buffalo – $5,100

I love this Buffalo defense and what they did to Green Bay last week was incredible. Now, they get a lackluster Oakland offense that has little to play for. They have failed to score at least nine fantasy points just once in the last eight weeks, giving a floor that is hard to find at the team defense spot.

Projected Stat Line – 10 points allowed, five sacks, two interceptions, one fumble recovery 

Follow-Up – Kansas City ($4900) – The Chiefs had a nice day against the Raiders. A touchdown was an added bonus but they still had four sacks, a fumble recovery, and held the Raiders to just 13 points. This was worth the additional price.

[ad5]