Who is Luke Willson?
Following each playoff week, waiver wires are becoming more saturated with low-upside veterans like Bobby Rainey and Wes Welker. Owners eliminated from the playoffs are searching for young players with talent and opportunity in 2015. This often comes in the form of second or third-year players, just beyond the spotlight of rookie fever and dropped by impatient owners. If your leagues are as deep as mine, or even shallow tight end-premium leagues, one such player is Seattle tight end Luke Willson.
Though not high on the radar coming out of Rice in 2013, this lack of recognition can be primarily attributed to his injury history. In his entire collegiate career, Willson caught a total of just 78 passes for 986 yards and nine touchdowns, with his best season coming in 2010 as a sophomore with 33 receptions for 425 yards and three scores. As a senior, he only caught nine passes amidst a disappointing season that did not conclude with an invitation to the 2013 NFL Combine.
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The 6’6”, 251 pound tight end posted very impressive numbers at Rice’s Pro Day however, particularly with a 4.51 40-yard dash, 10’2” broad jump, 38” vertical jump and 7.08-second 3-cone drill.. Had he participated at the Combine, these results would have placed him second in the 40-yard dash to Chris Gragg’s 4.51, second to Gragg’s 10’5” broad jump, first overall in the vertical jump, and tied with Zach Ertz for third in the 3-cone drill behind only Tyler Eifert and Gavin Escobar. In other words, he is high on the list of prospects for metrics enthusiasts.
The Seahawks, despite Willson’s minimal production as a senior and no invitation to the combine, liked his metrics and upside enough to select him with the 178th pick in the fifth round of the 2013 NFL Draft. With a very deep roster, Seattle chose to go with what they perceived to be the highest upside available.
On the field, Willson displays solid speed although he is not really a downfield threat as his 40-yard dash time might suggest. He has a wide catch radius as he has good hands and can haul in difficult passes. He also plays physically against defenders, using his size and strength to outmuscle opponents as a receiver and is an above-average blocker.
The two main knocks on Willson are his aforementioned injury history and the fact he is still very raw at his position. Both of these contributed to weak production, at least statistically, and a lot of time watching teammate Vance McDonald from the sidelines at Rice. Some scouts indicate Willson’s upside may be limited as he is only good, but not great in many aspects of the game, though clearly his coaches disagreed when they picked him in the draft.
What might ultimately be the most significant cap on his upside is usage (or lack thereof) of the tight end position in Seattle’s offense. As the top tight end target in the Seahawks’ offense since leaving Oakland in 2011, Zach Miller has 92 receptions in his career in the northwest. 2012 was his best season with 38 receptions for 396 yards and three touchdowns. Prior to joining Seattle, Miller averaged more than 56 receptions per season with the Raiders so his usage totals are less reflective of player talent than the offensive system.
Although the starting tight end in Seattle has limited upside without a scheme change, indications are that Willson stands to be next in line for the role. When he was selected, management spoke highly of the incumbent Miller as a great leader and role model to groom Willson as his eventual replacement. As a rookie, Willson played in all 16 games (including seven starts) as he caught 20 passes for 272 yards and a touchdown.
Though his statistics are modest, he received substantial playing time as a rookie. Head Coach Pete Carroll stated after the season, “He’s been a fantastic draft pick for us. To play so early and contribute in such a variety of ways, and he’s really just getting started. He’s a tremendous prospect for us for the years to come.”
Sure enough, when Miller went on IR early in the 2014 season, it was Willson who gained the starting role ahead of Cooper Helfet, Tony Moeaki and RaShaun Allen (with Anthony McCoy already on IR for the second time in as many years). Not surprisingly given his history of ailments, Willson has been somewhat slowed by an ankle sprain this season, but is still leading Seattle’s tight ends in receptions (17) and receiving yards (191). He is being used more in the short passing game than Helfet and Moeaki, who are both averaging more than 16 yards per reception on their few opportunities.
As mentioned at the beginning of this article, we are more concerned with what lies beyond this season as (hopefully) nobody is relying on Willson in their fantasy playoffs. Of his primary competitors for targets, McCoy and Moeaki both have expiring contracts. Assuming good health the remaining trio of Miller, Helfet and Willson it is unlikely either free agent resigns with Seattle. Miller (with a $4 million cap hit) and Helfet (with a 20% salary bump) are each signed for only one more season, and the former may find himself as a training camp casualty given his cap hit and own injury history.
Regardless of whether Miller and Helfet, signed as an undrafted free agent in 2012, are on the roster in 2015, the team appears committed to giving Willson more playing time. His rookie contract also goes through 2016 at a team-friendly price. With the opportunity hurdle at a minimum, now Willson just needs to avoid injury to contribute on the field. As he’s already a good blocker, and still improving, he can stay on the field all three downs to maximize his chances at getting targets.
DLF rankings have him as the 30th tight end overall, which feels just about right in the TE3 in the same range as fellow long-term prospects in Escobar and CJ Fiedorowicz. Willson will have a lower ceiling than most starting tight ends in the league due to the system he’s in, but he is worth rostering as tight end depth who should get a few fantasy points per game.
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