Dynasty Stock Market: Vets, Youth and Off-Season Value
This is an interesting time for dynasty fantasy football because there is a clear divide between two sides- championship contender and builder. Up until this week when the fantasy playoffs are beginning in most leagues, there may have been a few dynasty owners trying to convince themselves they could actually contend for a title if only they could sneak into the playoffs. Those aspirations have now been crushed and it’s time to prepare for next season. On the other hand, close to half of your league is preparing for a playoff push and the way the two sides are valuing players could not be more different.
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A few weeks ago, I wrote about Perishable Players and now that the off-season has begun for those building teams, the value of these players is all but gone. We have just begun the December dynasty mock drafts. Would you expect players like Justin Forsett, Fred Jackson or Brandon LaFell to be drafted highly in these and other off-season drafts? I don’t. These players have in-season value only due to their age or standing on their team. While players like this lose almost all of their value, veterans in general, even high performing players, take a hit as well once the season ends.
There are many reason this happens each off-season, though none of them really make sense. Dynasty owners often become intent on creating the “prettiest” roster possible, acquiring the players who are expected to breakout or simply those receiving a lot of attention during the off-season months. I have been guilty of this in the past and while it can sometimes pay off, it can also blow up in your face.
The off-season is a time the average dynasty owner imagines a best-case scenario for every young player and a completely opposite point of view for the older players in the league. Again, I’ve been guilty of this myself on many occasions and will be again in the upcoming off-season. I just can’t help myself, but maybe I can help you.
A good example of this is the San Diego Chargers tight end spot this season. Like many, I projected a breakout season for youngster Ladarius Green. I acquired him in every league I could, which was not very many because of the widespread belief he would be the next…ummm…Antonio Gates. The only problem is Gates wasn’t quite finished. Gates is currently a top five tight end in PPR scoring while Green’s appearances on the field have been few and far between. While Green did look good in limited opportunities last season, predicting a breakout at Gates’ expense was very short sighted. After all, Gates was a top ten tight end in 2013 and had a decade long relationship with quarterback Philip Rivers. He wasn’t going to just go away and he might not in 2015, either. What will happen, though, is his dynasty value will fall over the next few months due to his age. Gates is a great asset to have for those contending teams right now, but if you’re starting fresh in a new league, would he be your choice as a starting tight end? Probably not, and I wouldn’t blame you. There are dozens of examples just like this.
The simple formula is older players will lose value during the off-season and young players will gain value, even those who have proven they may not deserve it. I expect some of the biggest disappointments of 2014 to actually gain value over the next few months – this would include Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, Bishop Sankey, Michael Floyd and Christine Michael, along with the aforementioned Green. After a disappointing season, why would these players see their value increase? Because they have upside. Karl Safchick and Jarett Behar welcomed Matt Williamson on last week’s DLF Dynasty Podcast and had a great conversation about upside players and how to value them in dynasty leagues. Unfortunately, there is no easy answer, but fortunately there are some pros to go along with the cons and risks.
If we assume younger players will be the prime targets of many dynasty owners throughout the off-season and older players will be treated like the Rodney Dangerfield of dynasty fantasy football, how do we react? Acquiring young, high upside players during the off-season is paying top dollar for these risky players. You’re paying the price that would normally be required after a player had proven himself, even though that is often not that case. This is not to say these players cannot offer a good return on investment, but when you’re buying high, chances are not as great.
On the other end of the pendulum are the veterans who are now providing excellent value. This thought was a vital part of my off-season strategy a year ago and has made a huge difference in many of my leagues. While I was tempted to be a buyer on some of the hottest names of the off-season, in a couple of leagues, I chose instead to focus on acquiring older players, especially running backs, who could made an impact on my team. In one specific league, I was tied for the worst record in 2013 and focused on acquiring aging players who could help turn my team around. This season, I finished with the best record and most points scored in the league. Among the players I acquired in the off-season were Drew Brees, Arian Foster, Reggie Bush, Joique Bell and Marshawn Lynch. Most of these players came at a much cheaper cost than they would’ve if I waited until the regular season to acquire them.
Your assignment for the off-season is to identify one of your dynasty teams that is close to being a contender, or maybe already is contending. Instead of falling to the temptation of paying an exorbitant cost for unproven players, go shopping for undervalued veterans (which is almost all of them) who could put your team over the top.
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