Dynasty Stock Market: Veteran Value and Future Draft Picks

Recently, I’ve been conducting a series of poll questions with the hopes of gauging the dynasty value of the top tier of current NFL players, as well as future rookie picks. Over the past week, I’ve been asking my Twitter followers questions like this…

Name the RBs you’d be willing to trade a random future first round rookie pick in order to acquire. #dynasty

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) November 25, 2014

If you read Monday’s DLF Newsletter, you’ve already seen the results of the quarterback poll, along with some of my thoughts on the value of the quarterback position as a whole.

In case you missed it, here are the quarterback results, followed by all other positions.

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Quarterback

Total responses: 42

• We have a clear top tier and it is limited to the Colts’ Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers of the Packers.
• Five respondents don’t value any quarterback, including the young stud Luck, enough to give a random first round pick. While I understand and appreciate the late round QB and QB streaming strategies, acquiring a player who could start for the next ten years and play at a high level is easily worth a first rounder.
• The second tier is deep, but not all that appealing. Outside of the current high production of Peyton Manning, it’s hard to get behind any of these guys as my signal caller for the long haul. This means if I miss out on Rodgers or Luck, I am more apt to wait as long as possible.
• Considering that incoming rookie Marcus Mariota will likely be a late first round rookie pick in dynasty leagues, contending teams might be better off offering a second round pick for their favorite option in the second tier, rather than waiting on another rookie to produce.

Running Back 

Total responses: 19

• Much has been made of the devaluation of the running back position as a whole and we see that here. While a rather large number of back received some votes, the majority earned less than half of the votes from our 19 respondents.
• This will come as no surprise, but the Steelers’ Le’Veon Bell was the runaway leader in the voting, missing only one vote from being a unanimous selection.
• It’s obvious some dynasty players simply do not trust running backs. Even DeMarco Murray, who has dominated the league from the opening game of the season, got less than half of the votes.
• This also shows me that most dynasty players prefer to use their first round draft pick, likely on a wide receiver.
• It seems quite a few are buying in to undrafted rookie Isaiah Crowell, who comes in seventh on this list, ahead of some of the top producing backs in the league like Matt Forte.
• Although he’s barely played in his first couple of seasons, Christine Michael has more believers than his Beast Mode teammate, Marshawn Lynch.

Wide Receiver

Total responses: 16

• Here we have a lot of interesting data. First, the sheer volume of wide receivers mentioned, in comparison to other positions is notable.
• Also important, ten people responded with answers expressing their inability to make a list because it would be so extensive. Each made comments alluding to their list being in the range of 20-25 wide receivers they’d be willing to exchange a random first round pick in order to acquire.
• I find it surprising that not a single player was a unanimous selection. With such an inexact survey method such as this, it’s difficult to assess the reasons for some players being left off that might seem like obvious selections.
• While three of the “Big 5” sit at the top of the heap, some dynasty owners may be having their doubts about Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones long-term. Both players received half of the 16 votes, meaning the other half would not let go of a first round rookie pick to acquire either Johnson or Jones.
• While it’s no surprise to see rookies Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans and Odell Beckham, Jr. with so many votes, it might surprise you to see them chosen ahead of Jones, Johnson and Jordy Nelson.
• It didn’t take dynasty owners long to forgive and forget the transgressions of Josh Gordon, who sits near the top of the heap.
• My favorite player continues to have his doubters, despite another outstanding season. Randall Cobb is a top ten scoring wide receiver and still relatively young, but the possibility that he could part ways with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers hurts his long-term value.
• I mentioned the “Big 5,” which is what we’ve called the group of Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, AJ Green, Jones and Johnson, who have dominated fantasy football for the past couple of years, but the top tier now looks to be 12 deep, with a clear drop down to Cobb and TY Hilton.

Tight End

Total responses: 28

• While there are few names on this list of tight ends, there is a lot of information to be gained. First, you’ll notice the names that are missing, including Jordan Cameron, Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, Zach Ertz and Ladarius Green, among others. Many of these players have dealt with injuries this season, which has greatly affected their value.
• The large gap between Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and everyone else comes as no surprise. The only knock on Gronkowski throughout his career has been his injury history and as long as he stays healthy, he’s one of the most dominant players in the game.
• Travis Kelce of the Chiefs has drawn comparisons to Gronkowski on occasions this season, but his owners have been frustrated as he often disappears in games, likely as a result of the offensive game plan.
• Eric Ebron cost dynasty owners a first round pick and at least a couple are not ready to give up the hope that he will become a valuable fantasy asset.

Conclusions

I’ve already mentioned this, but I want to be clear – I understand this is not the most scientific exercise, considering the inconsistency in number of respondents, among other things, but I do see some value in hearing from active dynasty owners on how they value players and picks.

Let’s say a player had to receive at least 50% of the votes to be considered “worth” a first round pick. That would give us this list:

• Andrew Luck
• Aaron Rodgers
• Le’Veon Bell
• Eddie Lacy
• Jamaal Charles
• Demaryius Thomas
• Dez Bryant
• AJ Green
• Antonio Brown
• Mike Evans
• Josh Gordon
• Sammy Watkins
• Odell Beckham, Jr.
• Jordy Nelson
• Calvin Johnson
• Julio Jones
• Alshon Jeffery
• Rob Gronkowski
• Jimmy Graham

That means only these 19 players would be worthy of exchanging a first round rookie pick in order to acquire. That’s obviously a very small percentage of the offensive skill position players in the NFL and those percentages become even small when breaking down the players by position. We see only two players each at the quarterback and tight end position, while there are three running backs. That leaves 12 wide receivers who are deemed worth a first round pick. While you may want to argue about specific players who missed the cut, and I would as well, what stands out to me is how the wide receiver position absolutely dominates this evaluation activity.

If only a pair of quarterbacks and a pair of tight ends are worth a future first round pick, that tells me I probably shouldn’t be spending my early round picks on those positions. To eventually become worth an early pick and offer you a reasonable return on that investment, the rookie quarterback or tight end you select basically has to reach top two status at his position. Are you that confident in Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston? I’m not. I realize this is more of a recent trend, but the results are similar at the running back position, with only three players making the list. This leads me to the same conclusion, running backs have to do a lot to offer that eventual return on your first round draft pick investment. For another year, I’ll be looking for wide receivers with most of my first round rookie picks.

Follow @RyanMc23 on Twitter

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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