2014 Rookie Re-Draft: Round Three
It is really hard to believe the fantasy playoffs are upon us. At this point, I sure hope you know if you’re a contender or a pretender for this year. Either way, I also hope that you are starting to think about next year in your leagues. This is the time of year, when the majority of people are focusing on the playoffs that the truly savvy owners are trying to capitalize on market value. You’re of course selling off your older players if you’re out of the playoff hunt but far too often people forget about the other end of the spectrum.
This is the time of year when a lot of the current crop of rookies will be at their cheapest point during their first two years. Just think back to last off season and how the price tags skyrocketed on players who didn’t have massive production as rookies but had a lot of potential like Justin Hunter, Giovani Bernard, Andre Ellington, Montee Ball, DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson and Zach Ertz. Their price tags just prior to the fantasy playoffs last season, in the middle of rookie seasons where they weren’t producing much, were probably at their lowest points. Some of them have gone on to produce while others have fallen a little flat, but all of them could have been sold for much more this September than they would have cost last November.
Since now is the time to make those offers for this year’s rookies, it is the perfect time to look back and see how those rookies are currently being valued. The guys at our very own DLF podcast took a stab at it a few weeks ago and now we are here to do the same with a few more writers in another mock draft. If you’re unfamiliar with how our mock drafts work, here is the quick rundown. Our rules for the mock draft are as follows:
- Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
- Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
- Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need or previous players drafted
Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. From time to time we will disagree on a player, and that’s perfectly okay. There is no group think here at DLF and sometimes we get widely different opinions on players. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong. It happens!
We continue with a look at the third and final round of the mock draft. I’m honestly quite surprised at a few of the names falling into the third round as well as a few taken late in the round over a few others. There are still a few players with very wide ranges of opinions on them. It never hurts to check in your leagues and see how owners are viewing rookies. If someone has soured on a player you like, you might get a great deal.
Time to look at the third round!
3.01 – Teddy Bridgewater, QB MIN
Karl’s thoughts: I considered Jace Amaro here considering the tight end position can be more valuable than quarterback in fantasy, but Bridgewater possesses talented equaled by few in this league. He’s certainly had his early season struggles as you expect to see with any rookie starting at the most difficult position to play in all of sports, but I expect him to rebound. He has the intermediate accuracy and escapability necessary to succeed in the NFL, but will need to improve deep ball passing and reading defenses.
My thoughts: The first quarterback off the board in this mock, Bridgewater was my top quarterback for the entire off-season. I felt he had the highest floor of the quarterbacks in this year’s draft given his combination of talent and the team he was playing on. For a rookie quarterback he has performed fairly well. He’s been inconsistent, but that is to be expected given his lack of wide receivers and the fact that he is a rookie. I think he’s going to have a solid career, but I think he’s more Eli Manning-level of quarterback than a true QB1.
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3.02 – Devonta Freeman, RB ATL
Jarrett’s thoughts: Freeman had one of the better RB situations coming out of the draft. Steven Jackson is not long for this league, which would leave the door open for a starting role in Atlanta. His workload has started to increase as the season has gone on, so I like the value here.
My thoughts: Freeman has had quite the roller coaster when it comes to draft position over the last several months. He was a third round pick in most of our mocks until the draft and his selection by the Falcons. At that point he suddenly sky rocketed to a first round selection in a lot of rookie drafts. If there is a Daniel Thomas in this draft, it is Freeman. From a talent perspective, I continue to believe he is much more a high quality backup than he is a true starter in the NFL. If his value is back in the third round, he might be worth a flier as a short term starter next year if the Falcons stick with him.
3.03 – Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB BAL
Nick’s thoughts: While Justin Forsett has had a surprisingly good season, it won’t last and the Ravens will be searching for their RB of the future. Bernard Pierce has proven to not be the guy and Ray Rice was released. I’ve watched him on the All-22 film on NFL.com and am impressed with how athletic he is on a 230-pound frame. He gets downhill quickly in their zone scheme and can punish defenders. He hasn’t been incredible, but in the third round of a rookie draft, I’m going to take a chance on a player that could be a starting running back in the NFL.
My thoughts: I was never on the Taliaferro bandwagon at any point. While his build is intriguing I don’t see a whole lot to get me excited. He looks a lot like a straight ahead, one speed runner to me. This is likely to limit him to a short yardage/goal-line role. Forsett is looking very good and Pierce seems to be healthy and playing ahead of the rookie once again. I don’t see much of a ceiling for him.
3.04 – Charles Sims, RB TB
Dan’s thoughts: Although he hasn’t lit things up in his games since being activated, Sims is easily the best value still on the board at pick #28 overall. He’s averaging just 2.8 yards per carry as a rookie but his reputation as a shifty, quick runner with great vision and excellent skills as a receiver out of the backfield make him a great upside pick in the third round of this draft. The only running back on the Bucs roster that was picked by the current regime, Sims has a bright future in Tampa Bay.
My thoughts: I completely agree with Dan. Sims is a steal at this point in the third round or anywhere in the third round for that matter. Doug Martin seems to be in Lovie Smith’s doghouse, which is definitely concerning for his long term future, but good news for Sims. I think there might be some lingering issues from the ankle injury Sims suffered or else he is just rounding back into football shape, because he hasn’t flashed like he did in college just yet. I think the day is coming when he lights things up, so I’m definitely trying to scoop him up where I can at late second round or early third round prices.
3.05 – Jace Amaro, TE NYJ
My thoughts: I was really hoping Sims would slide to me at this slot once the third round got underway, but no such luck in this mock. Amaro is a very worthy consolation prize, though. Like all of the tight ends in this draft, I think people are much too impatient with them. It is a very tough position to learn at an NFL level and it typically takes at least a full season before they start to come into their own. For that reason, I don’t discount tight ends at all during their rookie season. I had Amaro as a middle second rounder during the offseason and he’s still at that value for me.
When I look at Amaro, I see someone who has the skill set to be a near elite pass catcher from the tight end position. If the Jets ever find a quality quarterback, Amaro has the talent to be the compliment they need to Eric Decker. I also think he can develop into a good enough blocker to be an every down tight end who can play in line as well as in the slot. I have some injury concerns which weren’t helped by the recent concussion, but he’s great value in the middle third. If it wasn’t him, I would have gone with Allen Hurns.
3.06 – Ka’Deem Carey, RB CHI
Zach’s thoughts: Carey, my highest rated running back in this class, has not yet had many opportunities to show his expansive skill set, but in his limited playing time, he has performed well. His biggest exposure was in week four against Green Bay, and he made the most of it, rushing for 5.1 yards per carry and 36 yards after contact. Over half of his total rushing yards for the season have come after contact, which is on par with starter Matt Forte. Carey would be going much higher in this mock if he wasn’t backing up the All-Pro, and that is my main issue with him. Forte could continue to outplay his age and keep Carey relegated to handcuff status for the next several years. If I wasn’t concerned Carey could become the next Michael Bush, handcuff extraordinaire, I would have him in my top seven overall rookies.
My thoughts: Zach is the first person I’ve seen brave enough to admit they still have Carey as their top rated running back. I’m on the other end of the spectrum when it comes to Carey. I don’t know if I ever had him in my top seven running backs, let alone my top seven players. He was super productive in college, but I think it was more a product of the system and massive space to run in than pure talent. With that said, the Bears offense is about as idle of a fit as he could have hoped to find, which means he might actually be a very serviceable backup. I expect him to be Forte’s backup for the next few years before the Bears draft a different running back of the future.
3.07 – Blake Bortles, QB JAX
Brian’s thoughts: Love the value I got on Blake Bortles in this draft. I think the Jaguars are committed to surrounding Bortles with offensive talent and the future in Jacksonville should be exciting with Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson. Bortles was the top selected quarterback in the draft and has shown signs of growth throughout the season. I like his dynasty stock moving forward and would rank him as my QB17 in dynasty.
My thoughts: I mentioned earlier that Bridgewater was my top quarterback for the entire off-season, largely because he had the highest floor. I had concerns about how Bortles would transition to the NFL. He’s had some great moments and some terrible ones, but after seeing him play I was impressed. I always felt he had a higher ceiling than Bridgewater and his play as made me feel better about his floor. He’s currently my top quarterback from this class and he’s great value in the middle of the third round. In two quarterback or super flex leagues, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him going in the first round.
3.08 – Paul Richardson, WR SEA
Eric’s thoughts: The end of the third round is when it becomes time to shoot the moon and the speedster Richardson fits that bill perfectly. He’s not big (far from it, in fact), but has speed to kill and was essentially the University of Colorado’s entire passing offense in 2013. I don’t believe he’ll ever become an elite player, but given his physical skills he has a chance to become a poor man’s DeSean Jackson.
My thoughts: I’ve gone on and on an awful lot about the lack of production from the Seattle wide receiver position and how I don’t think Richardson’s skill set translates to the NFL. When you combine the two I’m not very optimistic about Richardson’s chances of being fantasy relevant. I think he’s much more returner than he is wide receiver. He honestly isn’t even on my draft board, but I know there are several who think extremely highly of him.
3.09 – Derek Carr, QB OAK
Jeff M’s thoughts: I wanted a quarterback with this pick and was thrilled when Carr was available. I currently have him ranked number two among rookie signal callers, and just a few slots behind Blake Bortles in my overall quarterback ranks. He has done some game managing this year, but he has also displayed poise, arm strength, accuracy, athleticism, and the ability to sling the ball when called upon. I believe he has a higher floor than Bortles, if not quite the same ceiling, and I vastly prefer him to both Teddy Bridgewater and Johnny Manziel.
My thoughts: We won’t ever know the answer to this, but I often wonder what the scouting report would have been on him if his last name wasn’t Carr. He just might have been in the discussion for the top quarterback in the NFL draft. I’ve been more impressed with Carr than any of the other rookie quarterbacks. He has shown a lot of maturity and leadership while losing the first 10 games of the season and a lot of talent while leading the offense. He is the rare winning choice by a Raiders front office which has whiffed on the vast majority of draft picks over recent years.
3.10 – Andre Williams, RB NYG
Jeff B’s thoughts: The best thing Andre Williams has going for him is his ability to run in a straight line for 10 to 12 feet at a time. Tom Coughlin doesn’t care if Williams is incapable of running past a defensive back or that watching him try to catch a pass is more painful than listening to a toddler learn how to play the violin. All Coughlin cares about is if he can gain a few yards per carry and hold onto the football. If Williams can prove adept at those two skills, he should have consistent employment for as long as Coughlin remains the Giants head coach. This might not sound like the most glowing review but players who can consistently get near double digits are paramount to any fantasy team’s success.
My thoughts: Unlike a lot of rookies, Williams had his chance at a starting role for several weeks while Rashad Jennings was out due to injury. At best you can say he was serviceable, but that might be a little too generous. He did okay in fantasy leagues thanks to his touchdowns, but his roughly three yards per carry and lack of use in the passing game are really going to limit him. I don’t think he’ll get another shot at such a large role unless there is another injury, so the upside is capped as a short yardage specialist.
3.11 – Jeff Janis, WR GB
Nathan’s thoughts: I loved this guy during draft season – his metrics are something to admire. He is a Jordy Nelson clone of sorts. Randall Cobb is likely gone at the end of the season which will make Janis the third target for Aaron Rodgers if all goes well.
My thoughts: It is hard not to be impressed about Janis’s athletic ability. The small school prospect hasn’t had the best of luck so far this year, though. He started as the fifth man on the totem pole and he still seems to be there even though he is clearly more athletic than at least one if not two of the receivers ahead of him. He is a great stash for a third round price tag, but I wouldn’t pay much more than that. There are a lot of things which need to fall into place for him to see the field on a regular basis including Cobb moving on, no new receivers coming in, and Janis winning the battle for the third spot.
3.12 – Johnny Manziel, QB CLE
Ghost’s thoughts: Apparently I’m a Browns homer in this draft. Manziel has what it takes to succeed in the NFL talent-wise. I like Cleveland’s decision to let him season as long as possible so he will be much better prepared when his time comes to step in and take the starting role over.
My thoughts: When it comes to Manziel, there isn’t a whole lot of middle ground. You either love him and think he’s going to be a long term starter and potential All-Pro or you already believe he is a bust. I’m in the latter group. I think he is a lot of flash and his game isn’t going to translate very well to the NFL. He isn’t going to be able to get away from NFL level defenders to keep plays alive like he did college defenders. I think his work ethic and dedication are also questionable, which aren’t good characteristics for your quarterback and face of the franchise. The Browns have a major choice to make with how well Brian Hoyer is playing and what they decide will tell us a lot about Manziel behind the scenes. If they try to keep Hoyer, it could mean they are questioning their choice of Manziel.
Notable Absences: Allen Hurns, James White, Zach Mettenberger, Alfred Blue, Richard Rodgers
This is it for our rookie mock re-draft. I’ll be back with an overview of some of my biggest targets to check on in your leagues. Good luck in the fantasy playoffs if you make it in!
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
