2014 Rookie Re-Draft: Round Two

Jacob Feldman

mason

It is really hard to believe the fantasy playoffs are just around the corner. At this point I sure hope you know if you’re a contender or a pretender for this year! Either way, I also hope that you are starting to think about next year in your leagues. This is the time of year, when the majority of people are focusing on the playoffs that the truly savvy owners are trying to capitalize on market value. You’re of course selling off your older players if you’re out of the playoff hunt but far too often people forget about the other end of the spectrum.

This is the time of year when a lot of the current crop of rookies will be at their cheapest point during their first two years. Just think back to last off season and how the price tags skyrocketed on players who didn’t have massive production as rookies but had a lot of potential like Justin Hunter, Giovani Bernard, Andre Ellington, Montee Ball, DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson and Zach Ertz. Their price tags just prior to the fantasy playoffs last season, in the middle of rookie seasons where they weren’t producing much, were probably at their lowest points. Some of them have gone on to produce while others have fallen a little flat, but all of them could have been sold for much more this September than they would have cost last November.

Since now is the time to make those offers for this year’s rookies, it is the perfect time to look back and see how those rookies are currently being valued. The guys at our very own DLF podcast took a stab at it a few weeks ago and now we are here to do the same with a few more writers in another mock draft. If you’re unfamiliar with how our mock drafts work, here is the quick rundown. Our rules for the mock draft are as follows:

  • Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
  • Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
  • Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need or previous players drafted

Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. From time to time we will disagree on a player, and that’s perfectly okay. There is no group think here at DLF and sometimes we get widely different opinions on players. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong. It happens!

We continue with the middle round of our draft. With 11 of the top 12 picks being at the wide receiver position, the second round pick is dominated by the other positions, including a few players who were first rounders prior to the season as well as a few players who were largely undrafted prior to games kicking off.

Let’s take a look!

2.01 – Jeremy Hill, RB CIN

Karl’s thoughts: The running back position is a tough position in which to find value. Players these days either don’t play very long, don’t get the volume in which they used to, or both. While Hill plays a volatile position, and shares a backfield with the talented Gio Bernard, he’s still worthy of a high second round pick. In just his three starts without Bernard, he’s accumulated 361 yards on 63 carries – those are easily RB1 numbers.

My thoughts: I’ve been a little hot and cold on Hill over the draft process. Originally I really liked him and had him as a top three running back in this class. Then I soured a bit. As it turns out, my first impression seems to be true. The issue with Hill is much more situational than anything else. With Bernard around, Hill won’t approach 20 touches a game and might not even get 12-15 touches if Bernard is healthy. At that point you’re either counting on a touchdown or an injury to Bernard to be able to count on Hill. With Bernard around, he’s a very risky RB2, and I’m not sure he’s worth this early of a pick with the situation factored in. By talent alone he is for sure though.

2.02 – Cody Latimer, WR DEN

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Jarrett’s thoughts: The forgotten man in this large crop of productive rookie WRs.  Wes Welker and Julius Thomas are UDFAs after this year.  The opportunity should be there for this size/speed freak and it should be there with Peyton Manning.

My thoughts: The off-season hype on Latimer was a very interesting phenomenon. It seemed like his value went up on an almost weekly basis because people wanted to be higher than the crowd on the newest trend. I honestly did get it. I still don’t see a top tier receiver when I look at him, but the truth of the matter is if you have Manning throwing you the ball you don’t need to be a top tier talent to be highly productive. Latimer is currently still fourth on the depth chart, unable to surpass Andre Caldwell so far. It could easily be the rookie learning curve, but he’s going to need a few pass catchers to move to new teams if he’s going to get a chance. He’s a high risk, high reward choice.

2.03 – Jerick McKinnon, RB MIN

Nick’s thoughts: Unfortunate circumstances thrust McKinnon into early playing time after transitioning from a HS offense in college, where he played QB/RB/Wing. He’s had to learn the RB position, but has performed very well in the NFL with a 4.9 yards per carry average on almost 100 carries. At the NFL combine, McKinnon flashed great athletic ability and he’s proven that on the football field. As the Vikings continue to improve, I expect McKinnon to be in the running to be their starting running back.

My thoughts: McKinnon was one of the players I was most interested to see where he fell in this mock draft since I recently traded a later second and fourth plus a few pieces for him. At the time of the mock, Peterson’s legal case had been settled but his punishment from the league had not been finalized, which means McKinnon’s value was in great flux. The raw athletic ability for McKinnon is undeniable, but he is far from a finished product when it comes to playing running back. His blocking is hit and miss as is his pass catching at times. He also needs to work on running behind his pads between the tackles just a bit, but the potential to be a bell cow is definitely there.

2.04 – Marqise Lee, WR JAX

Dan’s thoughts: After Moncrief and Bryant were taken, Lee is the only receiver with top-20 fantasy upside at the position. Although he hasn’t looked particularly impressive as a rookie and has failed to overcome the likes of Allen Hurns for playing time, Lee has good speed and is excellent as a downfield receiver and after the catch. He’ll get the chance to play a little more now that Allen Robinson is on injured reserve. If he takes advantage of the opportunity and makes plays like I think he will, Lee will be a steal at pick 16.

My thoughts: I was always higher on Robinson than I was on Lee, both before and after the NFL Draft. The general consensus is starting to agree with me on the gap. The question is exactly what is Lee worth since he is clearly behind Robinson and potentially also behind Hurns at the current point in time. Long term I expect Lee to be a lot like his former teammate Robert Woods. He’ll be a second or third receiver on an NFL team with occasional good game, but he’ll also disappear quite a bit. Personally, I’m staying away from him at his current price, but there is always a chance he explodes with his opportunity.

2.05 – Eric Ebron, TE DET

My thoughts: When I landed in the fifth spot in the draft, I expected to be looking at McKinnon or Tre Mason at this spot. I never expected Ebron, the consensus top tight end in this draft during the off-season, to be available in the middle of the second round. Several others were also quite surprised he slipped this far saying they viewed him as more of a late first round pick than a middle second rounder.

When it comes to rookie tight ends, it is very important to remember they tend to take a very long time to develop. In most cases, we’re talking 2-3 years with tight ends before they start to produce. You need to draft them with this in mind. Nothing about my view of Ebron has changed with anything this year. If he was a middle/late first round pick in the off-season, he should still be in roughly that range right now. It is definitely worth checking to see if he’s being discounted by his owners in your league. At a second round price tag, I’m definitely buying him. He still has the ability to be elite in the Lions’ offense.

2.06 – Tre Mason, RB STL

Zach’s thoughts: I really like Tre Mason. He was my #2 rated running back in this year’s draft class. It has taken him awhile to get on the field in St. Louis, but he has shown well when given the opportunity. According to Pro Football Focus, his Yco/Att (yards after contact) of 2.25 ranks 24th overall for backs receiving at least 25% of his team’s attempts and fifth overall among rookies. Mason is a powerful runner with a knack for finding yardage beyond what is blocked. My main concern is that he is fairly slight of build, but if he takes care of his body, that should not be a major issue for him.

My thoughts: I’ve been very impressed with Mason’s running over the last several weeks. He has clearly been the best runner on his team and is a large part of the reason why I felt Zac Stacy’s days were numbered as a starter. The problem for Mason is he’s a true liability in the passing game. His pass protection is almost non-existent and has a very long way to go if he’s ever going to be on the field on passing downs. Until that point in time, his ceiling is going to be very limited given how often the Rams are going to be playing from behind. Overall, I think a middle second for Mason is right on given the risk and potential reward.

2.07 – Bishop Sankey, RB TEN

Brian’s thoughts: Aside the bad footwork (according to Ken Whisenhunt), I think Sankey still has some solid value in fantasy football. However, he has not produced the way many fantasy football owners were hoping up to this point. He is an explosive athlete, but he’s playing on a team that lacks a solid quarterback and an offensive line hampered by injury. Sankey has only played more than 50% of the snaps four times this season and got the start on two occasions. He is a threat to score solid PPR points if he gets an opportunity to take on the bulk of the carries. I still like him moving forward and look for him to improve down the stretch.

My thoughts: The largest drop off of this year’s draft class belongs to Sankey. He was routinely taken in the top half of the first round this off-season, often as the top running back off the board. Now he’s the fifth rookie rusher in this mock, and you could even argue he should be lower than that. He’s the classic example of value being inflated by his situation. While I won’t go as far as to say he’s Daniel Thomas all over again (he is more talented than Thomas), it is close. He does have talent, but he isn’t exceptional. With the starting role he could be a solid RB2, but I don’t think he’ll ever be a RB1.

2.08 – Jarvis Landry, WR MIA

Eric’s thoughts: Landry has been arguably the season’s most surprising rookie. He surpassed Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson with ease, and is already the second option in the Dolphins’ passing game behind Mike Wallace. Despite his below-average physical attributes, Landry is simply a football player in the mold of a smaller Anquan Boldin. He makes for a fine stash with PPR WR2/3 upside.

My thoughts: I was very down on Landry heading into the year and I might have been a little harsh given what we have seen from him this year. He is a far superior player with his pads during the game than he is in shorts. He won’t ever be a WR1 and might not even be a WR2, but he could be a very solid complement for the Dolphins moving forward and be a solid WR3 for your fantasy roster if the offense continues to progress. He’s definitely worth consideration in the late second, just keep your expectations realistic.

2.09 – Isaiah Crowell, RB CLE

Jeff M’s thoughts: Crowell was the only player I wanted with this pick. Looking at the remaining options, I felt like he had the most legitimate shot of being an impact fantasy player. Crowell is pretty clearly the most talented of the backs in Cleveland. Hopefully by next August the coaching staff will have caught up to what we all know. When that happens, he will be a player we consider in the top ten at the position.

My thoughts: The Browns’ backfield is in a state of constant flux. Depending on the week, you could easily flip flop Crowell and West as far as order. When it comes to Crowell, he is the more extreme of the two. He has more pure athletic ability and a higher ceiling, but he also has a lot more issues both on and off the field. Crowell has struggled to hang on to the ball at times and his effort has been questioned at times as well. If you’re willing to deal with the risk and potential headaches of who might be playing on any given week, he is worth the stash.

2.10 – Branden Oliver, RB SD

Jeff B’s thoughts: Oliver came back down to Earth after his two monster performances against the Raiders and Jets earlier this season, but those games were showcases for his talent.  Surrounded by uninspiring runners like Ryan Mathews, Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead, I imagine Oliver will get another chance to lock down the starting role sooner rather than later.  His ability to catch the ball out of the backfield is a sure sign he’ll be able to thrive in Mike McCoy’s system.

My thoughts: Oliver is a very interesting case. He has looked exceptional at times and he has also looked like an undrafted rookie at others. With Mathews back and healthy, Oliver will be pushed into a back-up role once again. I don’t think he did enough to work his way into more snaps this year as anything more than a change of pace rusher – that means his value long term is completely dependent on what Mathews does this offseason. My gut feeling is he’ll be back with the Chargers on a team friendly deal, killing a lot of Oliver’s long term value, but you never know.

2.11 – Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE TB

Nathan’s thoughts: I’m not totally convinced this guy will ever be a well-rounded tight end who will get you 6-8 catches for 70+ yards between the 20’s, but he is an excellent blocker and is really good at scoring touchdowns. He and Mike Evans are going to be a lethal red zone combo for Tampa for years to come. I have him and Jace Amaro close, but I just think ASJ scores more touchdowns

My thoughts: Another victim of people being a little too impatient with rookie tight ends. I had ASJ in the early/middle second round heading into the season and I think he still belongs in that range. Like I talked about with Ebron, rookie tight ends just take time. They need to learn to run routes like wide receivers and block like offensive linemen. That’s an awful lot to take on in addition to adjusting to the NFL pace and lifestyle. He’s a great value as a late second round pick.

2.12 – Terrance West, RB CLE

Ghost’s thoughts: I was pretty surprised to see West fall this far given his use this far by the Browns. While Crowell is certainly one of my favorites overall, I can see a situation in which West carves out a nice niche for himself while maintaining fantasy relevance.

My thoughts: The whole West/Crowell debate is something which could continue all the way through the off-season and heading into the 2015 season. I really like West and definitely think he belongs in the NFL. The problem for West comes down to raw athletic ability, because Crowell has him beat in that department. West isn’t the type of back who will rip off 80-yard runs or break ankles in the open field, but he is a very solid rusher who can be a complete back and carry a team. I see him as being a Rashad Jennings-type of player if he gets the chance. I think it is almost a coin toss between which one I would rather own, him or Crowell.

That’s it for round two. There’s a ton of value to be had in this round, but there is also a lot of value left on the board, reminding us of just how deep this draft class really was. Come on back tomorrow to see who went (and where) in the third round.

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jacob feldman