2014 Rookie Re-Draft: Round One

Jacob Feldman

watkins

It is really hard to believe the fantasy playoffs are just around the corner. At this point, I sure hope you know if you’re a contender or a pretender for this year!.Either way, I also hope that you are starting to think about next year in your leagues. This is the time of year when the majority of people are focusing on the playoffs that the truly savvy owners are trying to capitalize on market value. Of course you’re selling off your older players if you’re out of the playoff hunt, but far too often people forget about the other end of the spectrum.

This is the time of year when a lot of the current crop of rookies will be at their cheapest point during their first two years. Just think back to last off season and how the price tags skyrocketed on players who didn’t have massive production as rookies but had a lot of potential like Justin Hunter, Giovani Bernard, Andre Ellington, Montee Ball, DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson and Zach Ertz. Their price tags just prior to the fantasy playoffs last season, in the middle of rookie seasons where they weren’t producing much, were probably at their lowest points. Some of them have gone on to produce while others have fallen a little flat, but all of them could have been sold for much more this September than they would have cost last November.

Since now is the time to make those offers for this year’s rookies, it is the perfect time to look back and see how those rookies are currently being valued. The guys at our very own DLF podcast took a stab at it a few weeks ago and now we are here to do the same with a few more writers in another mock draft. If you’re unfamiliar with how our mock drafts work, here is the quick rundown. Our rules for the mock draft are as follows:

  • Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
  • Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
  • Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need or previous players drafted

Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. From time-to-time we will disagree on a player and that’s perfectly okay. There is no “group think” here at DLF and sometimes we get widely different opinions on players. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong. It happens!

Rounds two and three will be appearing in later articles, but here is round one. It makes clear something which a lot of us have been saying ever since last season ended – this is the year of the wide receiver. In fact, the first round featured only one player who isn’t a wide receiver. I can’t ever remember a year like this. Given the production of some of these players, this just might be the best rookie class ever without any exaggeration needed.

Let’s take a look at how the first round unfolded.

1.01 – Sammy Watkins, WR BUF

Karl’s thoughts: There are plenty of talented wide receivers in this year’s group, but Watkins tops the list. He may not have the physical tools of a player like Mike Evans, but Watkins is the better football player. Despite playing with the combination of EJ Manuel and Kyle Orton, and having no real opposite threat, Watkins is putting up high end WR2 numbers. I suspect he’ll be the best long term player of this year’s class.

My thoughts: Heading into rookie drafts this year, the top two players were pretty much locked in and I don’t think that has changed one bit. A few months ago, I felt Watkins was the very clear choice for the top spot with Evans a fair amount behind. This was largely due to the extremely high floor I felt Watkins had. He has everything you want from a wide receiver outside of the 6’3” frame that some people think top receivers need. While I don’t see truly elite ceiling for Watkins, I think he can definitely be near elite and at the backend of the top ten, right around the same area as players like Jordy Nelson. You should be very happy if you were lucky enough to land him. Just don’t be surprised if he is an inconsistent option for a few years while Buffalo figures out the rest of their offense.

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1.02 – Mike Evans, WR TB

Jarrett’s thoughts: The no-brainer 1.02 at this point.  He’s now the PPR WR12 after two huge outbursts the last two weeks.  There were concerns he was a little raw coming into the league and might take longer than Sammy Watkins to develop, but that does not appear to be an issue anymore.  The bigger question seems to be whether he belongs in the first tier of all dynasty WRs, not just the rookies.

My thoughts: I agree with Jarrett. If Watkins is the top pick, 1.02 would be the easiest pick in the draft. I think the gap between Evans and Watkins is very slim at this point in time. As I mentioned earlier, prior to the season I felt the order was definitely Watkins then Evans. At this point, I couldn’t fault anyone who wanted to switch the two. While Evans still has some things to work on to become a complete receiver, he has adjusted better than I expected. In terms of a ceiling, Evans might actually have a higher ceiling than Watkins. With that said, to answer Jarrett’s question of if Evans belongs in the top tier at this point, my answer is a definite no. It takes more than a few weeks of production for me to be willing to build my entire franchise around someone, which is what you’re doing with anyone in that top tier. There is risk with any rookie, no matter how talented. Just ask people who paid top dollar for the likes of Cordarrelle Patterson.

1.03 – Brandin Cooks, WR NO

Nick’s thoughts: To be a great fantasy wide receiver for many years, several different things have to come together, but one thing I don’t have to question is his character. Brandin Cooks bought his mother a vehicle with the first money he received after the combine for fastest 40 yard dash. Reduced risk of drinking, smoking, beating out of the league should be considered now in evaluation of players. While he’s a nice guy off the field, he’s a bulldog on the field and you can see he’s passionate. Quick as a hiccup, great route running, work ethic, hands and speed make him a terrific prospect. That should be enough in of itself, but having an elite quarterback in Drew Brees means Cooks should see plenty of targets and Sean Payton is utilizing him in many ways. He’s already passed up Marques Colston and I think he will only continue to develop into a consistently good threat.

My thoughts: I really like Cooks and from a pure athletic standpoint, he might have been the top receiver in the draft. When you combine it with the rest of the package you get a player who might have been the 1.01 pick in a few other draft classes. The questions about Cooks coming into the season largely revolved around if his smaller frame can hold up to an NFL beating and if he’ll be a consistent option. A few might point to his broken thumb as a red flag but breaking a bone is more of a fluke thing than having soft tissue issues, so I’m not overly worried. What has me more concerned is consistency. With how much Brees spreads the ball around it is going to be difficult to lock Cooks in as a WR1 in any lineups. You never know if it will be the six receptions for 95 yards and a score or the two catches for 25 yards. Regardless, he’s definitely a top prospect and you can hope the consistency improves as he gets experience.

1.04 – Jordan Matthews, WR PHI

Dan’s thoughts: This was such a tough decision. Allen Robinson and Odell Beckham Jr. were both given consideration but in the end I had to go with Matthews, who has risen up my draft board dramatically since July. He runs great routes, has shown good hands even when in traffic and is already becoming a focal point of one of the best offenses in the league. Right now he’s starring in the slot for the Eagles but he’ll no doubt be featured as an outside threat at some point. The sky is the limit for Matthews and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t develop into a WR1 for dynasty owners.

My thoughts: I remember the good old days when I got into a major discussion with someone because they didn’t even think Matthews was a top ten receiver, let alone a top ten draft choice in rookie drafts. It is amazing how much can change in just three months! I’ve been a big supporter of Matthews all through the draft process, and I’ve been very happy with what he has done. While I would probably put Beckham ahead of him in my WR rankings, you can’t argue with what Matthews has done. My biggest concern is how high is the ceiling for Matthews? I think he’s more of a high end WR2 than a WR1 type of talent. He’s more in the same tier as players like Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins than the next step up.

1.05 – Carlos Hyde, RB SF

My thoughts: This was a really tough call for me and looking back on things, I probably would have gone with Beckham with a little more thought on the matter. Even when I made the choice, it had more to do with supply and demand than it did talent level. Beckham is a truly unique talent who is a much more impressive athlete than most people realize and who can make catches few others can. The issue is he’s a back-end WR1 and there seems to be quite a few of them around these days with how much NFL teams are throwing the ball. What seems to be in extremely short supply, especially with several of the current ones aging, is the bell cow running back.

Maybe it is a little bit of my old school blood showing, but it is tough for me to pass up a player I feel is one of the next generation of bell cow running backs in the middle of the first round. Hyde has been my top running back in this draft class ever since Melvin Gordon decided he was going back to school and that hasn’t changed. He has the build and the skill set to be an every down running back for a team which is built to run the ball. I think Gore is likely gone after this season for contract reasons, which means Hyde will be a RB1 starting next year. Tough to pass that up even if I think Beckham is a better talent overall. There just aren’t many running backs you can trust as your top guy.

1.06 – Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR

Zach’s thoughts: Admittedly, he hasn’t had the greatest rookie year, but it wasn’t that long ago when we gave receivers a few years to develop. His seven drops on 82 targets is alarming but can be fixed. As a rookie, he has run good, not great, routes and has received a respectable 27% of quarterback Cam Newton‘s targets. If the Panthers can begin to protect Newton even a little bit, the connection between the two will continue to grow even stronger.

My thoughts: I’ve been very vocal about Benjamin ever since he declared for the draft. He has great size and his ability to go after the ball at his height is a rare treat for a quarterback, especially one who can be a little bit off with his throws from time to time. My problem with Benjamin stems from my view that he is an incomplete receiver. He lacks focus at times, as evidenced by his drops, and doesn’t create much separation with his route running. Aside from his physical size, he also isn’t the most gifted athlete. I think a lot of his rookie production is based off of his situation instead of his talent. I think he’s much more of a number two target in an offense than the true top dog, which will probably limit him to low end WR2 numbers down the road. I honestly don’t even have Benjamin in my top 12 rookies due to long term concerns about his role, but time will tell.

 1.07 – Odell Beckham, WR NYG

Brian’s thoughts: The number twelve overall pick of the NFL draft has really stepped it up following his early season hamstring injury and Victor Cruz headed to IR. Beckham was ranked as the WR17 from Week five to Week 11, averaging nearly 14 PPR points per game – the same as Watkins. Beckham already runs some very polished routes and the loss of Victor Cruz has given him an opportunity to step up in the offense. I had Beckham as the fourth guy on my board and I am ecstatic getting him at 1.07.

My thoughts: To be fair to everyone who participated in the mock draft, the picks were made before Beckham’s absolutely ridiculous catch and overall performance on Monday night. I know it sounds silly to change values based on one catch, but I think a performance like that was so special he would have been drafted higher than this. Beckham is a truly gifted athlete who not only has straight line speed, but acceleration, agility and body control you very rarely see. He is a special talent. The only concerns I have for Beckham at this point are about his role and if he’ll stay healthy. The Giants already have Cruz locked up long term and with Eli Manning’s inconsistent play I question if Beckham will be a reliable option. As for health, he struggled this summer with injuries which always makes you wonder with someone who plays as fiercely as he does, but I don’t foresee any major issues.

 1.08 – Allen Robinson, WR JAX

Eric’s thoughts: I have Robinson ranked as my rookie WR5, which in this class means he’s my fifth-ranked player overall. In just a few short weeks he had already ascended to lead duties amongst the Jags wide receiver corps, and on the year was on pace for over 120 targets, showing abilities in both the short game and with YAC. I already know he can win downfield from his time at PSU, and expect him to improve upon that in the pros. I firmly believe his ceiling is nearly as high as the top receivers in the class of 2014.

My thoughts: Heading into rookie drafts I had Robinson as my sixth wide receiver, very close to Matthews who was my fifth. Since then the gap has widened a little bit. I disagree a little bit with Eric when it comes to the ceiling Robinson can reach. I think he is much more of a WR2 than the WR1 level of talent I feel the other receivers in this draft class possess. I’m also a little bit concerned by the fact that injuries and poor play allowed undrafted free agent Allen Hurns to play ahead of Robinson for a brief period. While those days are gone, it is still sitting in the back of my mind. If Robinson was really a WR1 talent, how could that happen? Regardless, there seems to be one view which isn’t being debated much anymore – if he’s better than Marqise Lee. For me the answer is clear.

1.09 – Davante Adams, WR GB

Jeff M’s thoughts: There is a pretty big tier break after pick eight, so I was disappointed when I drew the nine-hole for this mock. All things considered, Adams is a nice consolation prize. I very briefly considered the upside of Martavis Bryant, but instead went with a guy I drafted numerous times in our pre-season rookie mocks. Adams has shown his college production is a result of talent over circumstance as he quickly moved into the WR3 role in Green Bay. He’s been productive on limited targets and has all the makings of a future WR2. The big question concerns will be when that opportunity will come, as he is stuck behind one of the best receiving duos in the NFL.

My thoughts: I think Jeff nailed it when he said there is a pretty significant tier break in the middle of the first round. There is some debate about exactly who is above and who is below that line. For example, I have Eric Ebron still in that top tier and would not include Benjamin, there is a definite drop off. That isn’t to say players like Adams aren’t good picks, they just aren’t at the same level. In regards to Adams, I went on record many times as being a little concerned about not being able to tell if his college production was him or his quarterback. From what we’ve seen so far, Adams seems to be legitimate. As Jeff says, the real question with him is what kind of role he’ll have. If Randall Cobb moves on, which isn’t as certain as some people like to think it is, Adams could be a solid WR2. If not, he’s a boom or bust WR3.

 1.10 – John Brown, WR ARI

Jeff B’s thoughts: Explosive, a threat to score every time he touches the ball, a dynamic weapon – there is no shortage of superlatives to describe Cardinals rookie John Brown.  Admittedly, I was one of those naysayers who doubted the comparisons to T.Y. Hilton, but I’ve since become enlightened.  With an almost identical smallish frame, Brown might even be a “better” version of the Indianapolis wideout and his penchant for making full-speed over-the-shoulder catches means he’ll have some monster games for fantasy football purposes.

My thoughts: This was the first true curveball of this mock draft. He is the first player drafted who wasn’t a first round pick at some point in our mock drafts this past year. In fact, Brown went undrafted in the majority of our mock drafts this past off-season and when he was drafted it wasn’t until just before the season when he was a third round pick. While I really like Brown, I don’t know if I’m willing to give up a first round pick for him. There are a lot of question marks around him at this point. Who will be the quarterback of the future in Arizona? What will happen with Larry Fitzgerald and his contract next year? Which Michael Floyd is the real Michael Floyd? Can Brown evolve to be more of a consistent weapon or will he always be more of a complement? Maybe I’m a little off on his value, but I have Brown as more of a second round selection in this stacked draft class.

1.11 – Donte Moncrief, WR IND

Nathan’s thoughts: He is a big, fast receiver who is catching passes from Andrew Luck. It is hard to ask for much more, really. The drops are a little bit of a concern, which is why he is at the bottom of the second tier, but well worth a late first right now. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Reggie Wayne retire after the season and Moncrief has already eclipsed Hakeem Nicks who wasn’t going to be a Colt after this year anyways.

My thoughts: Moncrief was a player I identified as soon as the draft happened as someone I was going to target mid-season in my leagues. He is the perfect player in that regard because he was likely to struggle during his rookie year but had a very favorably long term outlook and plenty of talent to go with it. It seemed to be a great plan until week eight against the Steelers came along and he exploded for seven receptions, 113 yards and a touchdown, pushing his value back up. With five catches for 40 yards in the three games since, his price might be coming back down but I wouldn’t hold my breath. The Moncrief we saw against the Steelers is the player he can become. He’s the ideal complement to Hilton long term and someone I’m definitely targeting if I’m rebuilding. It might take another year for him to be consistent, but the talent is there.

1.12 – Martavis Bryant, WR PIT

Ghost’s thoughts: The way Bryant has been integrated into the Steelers offense leads me to believe that he will be a big part of their plans for a long time to come. He is clearly one of the more explosive receivers in this class so far.

My thoughts: I’m a little surprised Bryant wasn’t a bit higher on the list. I’m not saying he should have been, just that his recent production has definitely pushed his trade value through the roof. Bryant seems to be the missing piece the Steelers have been looking for in their pass catches. He is the big, tall receiver they have needed to pair with their smaller pass catchers. Defenses can’t afford to pay extra attention to him with the likes of Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell also on the field, and Bryant is talented enough to beat one on one coverage most of the time. While he might end up being a little touchdown dependent and his ceiling is WR2 level, he is a huge reason why the Steelers’ offense has taken the next step this season. I don’t think I would offer a first round pick for him, but I would gladly pay a second rounder.

That concludes our look at the first round. We will be back with round two tomorrow!

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jacob feldman