2015 Free Agents: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

Brian Bulmer Posted On November 21, 2014

maclin

I want to give a huge shoutout to our friends at Spotrac.com. The website is full of information that makes the research and writing of this article series and many others much easier. Myself and the rest of DLF would like to thank those at Spotrac for all of their hard work and allowing us to share invaluable information with fantasy football managers that help shape and mold their teams now and in the future.

Outside of the NFL Draft, few things are more exciting to dynasty owners than free agency. The 2015 free agent class is full of players who are elite high value players, misused players and players who could benefit from a fresh start. The player’s current situation and how each individual is being used by their current team directly affect their current value. What would happen if one of these players landed in another location?

The dynasty landscape is fluid and full of changes just as the NFL landscape. At this point in our dynasty seasons owners need to evaluate the direction of their teams. Are they in position to make a push and win a championship? Or is it time to cut bait with some older veterans and garner younger talent. Maybe it is a player who has been misused or needs a fresh start and the value of said player would significantly increase if they landed elsewhere.

In this series I will focus on the 2015 free agent class and see how the possible changes could affect each player’s value moving forward. I am a realist and I know not every team will let these players walk, so I will also look at potential value changes if the players stay at their current locations. I will use ADP generated by DLF’s own Ryan McDowell (@ryanmc23). He recently generated ADP based on mock drafts for the month of November. I will use these values to look at the 2015 free agents currently with a dynasty rank in the top 26-100.

Jeremy Maclin, WR PHI
Age 27, Dynasty ADP 34

Maclin spent 2013 rehabbing an ACL injury. Now he is spending the 2014 smoking the competition as a fantasy football WR1 ranked fifth overall in PPR points. The Eagles offered him a five-year contract prior to the 2014 season, but it wasn’t near the amount of money Maclin was hoping to make on his second contract. Maclin bets on himself, signs a risky one-year deal and now heads into an off-season where the opportunity for a much bigger pay day is within reach. Will Maclin re-sign with the Eagles? He did pass on a long term deal already, but what is the meaning of it all? Is he seeking out a bigger payday in free agency or a bigger payday from the Eagles? Maclin is having a Pro Bowl year and is set to have his best statistical season to date. With Mark Sanchez and Casey Matthews set to become free agents as well, the Eagles have some decisions to make in the upcoming off-season. Based on 2015 cap numbers, the Eagles are not in good position to resign Maclin without other roster adjustments. The Eagles have about $5 million dollars in cap space heading into the 2015 off-season. With no current contract talks in place, I would say Maclin’s time in Philly is likely up at the end of 2014, but as a Maclin owner, I hope I am wrong.

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Michael Crabtree, WR SF
Age 27, Dynasty ADP 42

Crabtree has been through trials and tribulations in the NFL. After injuring his Achilles tendon last season, he bounces back with a WR3 season so far that leaves him ranked #31 overall with what some consider a pedestrian season considering his talent. Crabtree is splitting targets with teammate Anquan Boldin and cannot seem to separate himself from the pesky veteran when it comes to earning Colin Kaepernick’s trust. The Niners are currently over the cap heading into the 2015 off-season with many players to re-sign. Starting left guard Mike Iupati will take on some more salary while veteran Frank Gore will either take a pay cut or get released. I expect backup quarterback Blaine Gabbert to also take a paycut or get released as well. Crabtree is currently making $4 million per season and I see that number increasing to about $5 million per year in his next contract – that is a contract the 49ers can afford and I expect him to be back in San Francisco in 2014.

Shane Vereen, RB NE
Age 26, Dynasty ADP 58

Vereen has been a weapon in the New England offense when healthy. He missed half of the games in 2013 due to a wrist injury, but has been pretty healthy this season. Vereen finished last season averaging a solid 16 fantasy points per game. Within the Patriots offense, he has been very game flow dependent and Bill Belichick may have underutilized him at times. Vereen unfortunately hits free agency along with many other Patriots including Stevan Ridley, Darelle Revis, Dan Connolly, Steven Gostkowski, Patrick Chung and Jonas Gray. I don’t think it is likely Belichick resigns Vereen or Ridley with Jonas Gray and 2014 fourth round pick James White waiting in the wings – this may benefit Vereen if he were to land in the right situation. Many running back needy teams lead the league in cap space in 2015 including the Raiders, Jaguars, Jets, Browns and Colts. I believe it is very likely Vereen hits the open market and hopefully lands in a situation that will allow him to display his talents and score owners some consistent fantasy points.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL
Age 26, Dynasty ADP 61

Torrey Smith finally saw the exit of Anquan Boldin in 2013 and finished as a low WR2, finishing #23 overall in fantasy points even with an abysmal Ravens rushing attack. His 1,100+ yards were a career high, but he didn’t have the touchdowns to go with it only scoring four on the season. The Ravens added offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak in the off-season and fantasy footballers were hoping to see a spike in production that could take Smith into the top 15 wide receivers. The bad news in 2014 is that the wrong Smith took over in Baltimore and is producing like a solid WR2. Steve Smith is having a great season, but Torrey Smith is only a flex play at this point and is currently the WR41 in fantasy production. Ugh. I think Torrey may benefit fantasy owners most with a change of scenery, but I am not so sure that will happen. The Ravens have a young wide receiver who is still growing in a new offense and most likely will not have to break the bank to sign him back. I think this season is the floor for Torrey – he is getting the deep touchdowns but is not seeing the targets fantasy owners were hoping for in the Kubiak offense. Smith will be 26 years old heading into next season and still has room to grow. He is a fantastic trade option because he has great upside and owners may be able to get him cheap right now with his limited production.

Mark Ingram, RB NO
Age 25, Dynasty ADP 62

Ingram has only played in seven games this season and is still a fringe RB1. He heads into an off-season as one of the few key players who needs to be signed by the Saints. The primary issue is the Saints currently sit $18 million over the cap heading into 2015. With a draft class loaded with running back depth, the Saints may choose to save some money and use a second or third round pick on a running back. Khiry Robinson becomes a free agent in 2016 and has shown flashes this season when healthy as well. New Orleans has not positioned themselves in the cap well enough to likely re-sign Ingram. I expect him to become a free agent and unless the Saints use a high draft pick on a running back, Khiry Robinson could be the back to own in New Orleans in 2015.

Jordan Cameron, TE CLE
Age 27, Dynasty ADP 79

The Browns are in great cap position to resign Cameron heading into 2015, but do they want to? The concussions are starting to stack up for him, so is he really worth the risk for the Browns or fantasy owners? The numbers don’t lie and Cameron had a great 2013 season. At this point, the 2015 draft class does not have a lot of tight end depth, either. Jermaine Gresham, Robert Housler, Charles Clay, Owen Daniels and Julius Thomas are all set to become free agents in 2015 and may be targets for the Browns unless they can get Cameron back in Cleveland for cheap. As much as I believe the Browns will re-sign Cameron, I also believe he is too much of a risk at this point for his dynasty cost.

Ryan Mathews, RB SD
Age 27, Dynasty ADP 86

The oft-injured Mathews played 16 games for the Chargers in 2013 and finished as the RB17, but has again battled injuries this season. This seems to be a theme as he has had some abysmal seasons finishing outside of the top 30 running backs in two of the last four seasons. The Chargers are in position to re-sign Mathews, but they also have a few other veterans who have to be signed as well. Rookie running back Branden Oliver has shown well in limited action this season. Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead are under contract through the 2016 season as well. I think the writing is on the wall for Mathews and it may be time to move to a team that needs a complementary running back. I see the Chargers moving to an RBBC that includes the three headed monster of Oliver, Woodhead and Donald Brown. As mentioned above, many teams could use a veteran running back to offer some depth and some pass catching ability. I expect to see Mathews in a new location in 2015.

Look for the next article in the series where I spotlight Steven Ridley, Mark Sanchez, Ryan Mallett, Darren McFadden, Jonas Gray, and Cecil Shorts.

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