Daily Optimized Lineup: Week Eleven

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As part of that experience, we at DLF felt it might be of particular interest to our readers to provide them with an optimized lineup that they should be able to plug into a Head to Head or 50/50 game and fully expect to win some money.

There is a saying I like that comes from a poem by the Scottish writer named Robert Burns. The poem is called “To a Mouse” and the line that strikes a particular cord when looking back at last week is, “The best laid schemes of mice and men often go awry.” That certainly was the case last week where our duo of top notch wide receivers simply did not live up to their price tags. Luckily, other players on our squad stepped up in big ways to help rescue the day. This week we finally come out of the “Byepocolypse” and only have four teams on bye as opposed to the six teams on bye each of the past two weeks which made building lineups fairly difficult. This week, however, the price on many players appears to have risen so it’s still going to be difficult to build a dream lineup, it will just be a different kind of difficult, so let’s give it a shot though and jump right in:

Quarterback – Ben Roethlisberger – $8,300

Given Roethlisberger’s performance in the past few weeks, I think it’s safe to say this pick doesn’t require a whole ton of explaining. Over the past three weeks, Roethlisberger’s average game looks like this – 402 passing yards for four touchdowns. Keep in mind that’s not his total over those three weeks, that’s his average. Even though the Steelers didn’t have an amazing game against the Jets last week, Roethlisberger actually put together a salvageable game by fantasy standards by recording 343 passing yards. This week Roethlisberger and the Steelers face the Tennessee Titans in a matchup in which I fully expect them to seek some degree of retribution for the embarrassing loss they suffered last week while making a statement on national television under the lights of Monday Night Football. Everything about the Titans’ pass defense is very vanilla and their statistics are all very middle of the road. However, short of Indianapolis and Dallas, the Titans haven’t really faced a team particularly dominant via the pass like Pittsburgh is. When you factor in Roethlisberger’s price value this week (coming in as only the eighth most expensive quarterback despite three consecutive 340+ passing yard games), you are almost forced to take him no matter who his opponent would be.

Projected Stat Line – 25 completions for 380 yards and three touchdowns

Follow-Up – Mark Sanchez – ($6,600) – Mark Sanchez turned out to be a really nice play against a completely overmatched Carolina defense on Monday night. He ended up passing for 332 yards and two touchdowns en route to 21.18 fantasy points. This brought his dollars per point total to a very attractive $311 dollars, making him one of the better quarterback plays on FanDuel this past weekend.

Running Back – Matt Forte – $9,300

There hasn’t been a whole lot Matt Forte hasn’t been able to accomplish this season. Take the fact that over the past five games Forte has average just under 25 fantasy points per game. If Forte reached just his average in this game he’d be sitting at a dollar per point value of $372, which is a no-brainer to jump on right away. However, I’m expecting Forte to have a very nice day in the passing game this weekend. The Vikings are giving up the eighth most fantasy points to running backs this season, but a huge reason for that is due mainly to their inability to stop running backs catching passes out of the backfield. Minnesota is giving up the fifth most passes to running backs due primarily to an incredible 89% completion rate to running backs in a single game when they played the Vikings. Meanwhile, Forte leads all running backs in receptions at 61 and is actually the fifth leading player in the NFL in terms of receptions. Additionally, he leads all running backs in receiving yards as well with 517 receiving yards making the matchup prime for lots of passes out of the backfield that Forte can exploit.

Projected Stat Line – 18 rushes for 75 yards and one touchdown, eight receptions for 70 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Follow-Up – Marshawn Lynch – ($8,300) – Beast Mode returned with a vengeance on Sunday, throwing down an incredible 140 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. Now that performance was way beyond what I expected from him, but it was a welcome surprise nonetheless. His dollars per point value of $203 is nearly unheard of from an elite player and is the best running back value we’ve identified thus far this season. His performance helped get our lineup into contention in 50/50 games and likely in head to head games as well.

Running Back – Ryan Mathews – $6,200

Normally I wouldn’t go with this play, but a series of opportunities this week make it intriguing. First, any team going against Oakland requires you to look deeper at their roster in order to see if there are any opportunities to exploit. In this instance, Mathews has been out of action for a large chunk of the season and this will be his first game back. As such, his price is pretty well depressed for being a bell cow back. This is due to the question marks surrounding whether he will be able to handle a full workload for an entire game or if he’ll be part of a timeshare in the backfield. To be fair, he likely will have a bit of a time split with Branden Oliver but also remember he had a time share all of last season as well with Danny Woodhead and he was still able to perform at a high level. Meanwhile, Oakland is giving up the sixth most rushing yards in the NFL and the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Clearly the opportunity is there for Mathews to significantly outperform his price tag, even in a bit of a time share.

Projected Stat Line – 16 rushes for 105 yards and one touchdown, three receptions for 25 yards

Follow-Up – Charles Sims – ($4,800) – I really feel Sims should have been used much more significantly than he was actually used last weekend. While he got a majority of the carries for Tampa Bay, he was never put in particularly advantageous positions and it was often very clear what the Buccaneers intended to do each time he came into the game. While he was still clearly acclimating to the professional game Tampa Bay didn’t exactly help him with their game planning either. I still fully expect Sims to be an absolute stud in the NFL, but it may take a little more time and better planning than the Buccaneers had hoped or expected.

Wide Receiver – Antonio Brown – $9,000

Antonio Brown has continued to be just an absolutely dominating force in the NFL this season. Brown leads the NFL in receptions and receiving yards and is second in receiving touchdowns and in yards gained after the catch. Obviously, if you can get Brown into your lineup, it’s very likely to pay dividends for you at the end of the week. This play is an excellent complement to the Ben Roethlisberger play I mentioned earlier as well. As with Roethlisberger, the Titans just haven’t had the opportunity to matchup against many players the caliber of Brown. Also keep in mind that the game will be played on Monday night so it could provide a great opportunity for the Steelers to make a statement on national television while giving your lineup the nice little extra boost to get up and over the hump and into the money at the last moment. Nothing like an adrenaline rush to make a pay day feel even better!

Projected Stat Line – Nine receptions for 150 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Jeremy Maclin – ($8,700) – This play was just so depressing. Everyone on the Eagles seemed to be having great games, Sanchez was looking like a rock star, Jordan Matthews appeared to be exactly what Philadelphia thought he’d be and even Brent Celek appeared out of nowhere for a season high box score. All of this and where was Maclin? Barely able to be found all night, apparently, as he only posted three receptions for 38 yards. His 5.3 points on Monday night made his dollars per point value a stomach churning $1,641 dollars. Ouch!

Wide Receiver – Kelvin Benjamin – $6,600

[inlinead]For much of Monday night Kelvin Benjamin was a non-factor. He had only one catch by halftime and things were looking very bleak for his owners. However, in the second half (and mainly in the fourth quarter), Benjamin came alive and ended up with a 20.5 fantasy point night. Why am I recapping Benjamin when this part of the article is reserved for talking about how he should do this week? Well it’s simple, it just proves how dominating this receiver can be if given the opportunity. This week, Benjamin and the Panthers face the abysmal defense of the Falcons. Atlanta is giving up the eighth most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, but even that is a bit misleading to just how bad they are. Take for instance the fact the Falcons are giving up the most passing yards per game out of any team in the NFL this season. When you factor in the fact Benjamin is accounting roughly 30 percent of all passing yards the Panthers gain, you can start to see that given his $6,600 price tag, Benjamin starts to looks like a pretty nice deal this week. Coming into a divisional battle and after being embarrassed as badly as they were last week, look for Carolina to come out swinging in an effort to try to regain some of the dignity they lost at the hands of the Eagles.

Projected Stat Line – Four receptions for 80 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Antonio Brown – ($9,100) – Antonio Brown was the other high priced wide receiver who just didn’t put it together for us last week. The Jets were highly effective at keeping Brown contained for much of the game and ended up keeping his fantasy point total pretty low. Despite catching eight receptions for 74 yards he was held out of the end zone. His performance netted him 7.4 fantasy points which made his dollars per point total an incredibly disappointing $1,230 – not even close to what we were hoping for.

Wide Receiver – Jordan Matthews – $5,500

Jordan Matthews had a very nice game on Monday night and has slowly been becoming a bigger part of Chip Kelly’s offensive plans over the past few weeks. This past weekend, Matthews made his presence known to the tune of seven receptions for 138 yards and two touchdowns and was a clear favorite of Mark Sanchez in the passing game. The concern, obviously, is was this a one-time burst or is this a glimpse of things to come? Well, I’m inclined to believe that while he won’t have another game on the scale of the game he just had anytime soon, he should continue to see his role in the Eagles’ offense continue to grow. Additionally, the price that was posted for Matthews this week came out prior to his big game Monday night, so we can potentially take advantage in a bump in his production this week before FanDuel’s pricing system is able to catch up – these kind of opportunities tend to be rare and there is definitely some risk involved, but the potential upside is worth it, especially if he can out-produce his price point while allowing us to stock up elsewhere in our lineup with studs who tend to be more consistent.

Projected Stat Line – Five receptions for 75 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Kelvin Benjamin – ($6,700) – As I mentioned earlier in this piece, Benjamin had a quiet evening Monday night that was only saved by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, points are points and his 20.5 points were a welcome addition at the end of the week. His performance provided a dollars per point value of a respectable $327. Given his price last week and the points he produced for us, Benjamin performed almost exactly as expected.

Tight End – Travis Kelce – $5,900

Travis Kelce has been appearing in this column quite frequently due to his high upside and low price point week in and week out. However, this week he appears here for more than just that, you see Kelce now has the possibility of seeing increased playing time as well. First, the Chiefs’ Head Coach Andy Reid was quoted on Thursday as saying, “He’s (Kelce) really kind of up to speed with the whole deal right now,” meaning that Kelce now has a full understanding of the Chiefs’ offense, something he may not have had up until this point. Second, the one obstacle to an increase in Kelce’s playing time, Anthony Fasano, has been sidelined all week with an injury and has been unable to practice. All signs currently point to Fasano being sidelined for a very prime matchup against the Seahawks who are giving up the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends this season. When you factor in the production that Kelce is already capable of producing, a potential increase in playing time and an excellent matchup then you can start to see why, at $5,900, Kelce is a very interesting play this week with the potential to significantly out-produce his price point.

Projected Stat Line – Four receptions for 60 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Heath Miller – ($5,300) –Much like Antonio Brown, Heath Miller was just not able to get anything started against a Jets defense that clearly came in with a game plan and ready to execute it. Miller just wasn’t involved in the offense for the first half and only was able to get a few catches in the second half. Posting a box score line of three receptions for 29 yards gave Miller 4.4 fantasy points on the day and a dollars per point value of $1,205 dollars – extremely disappointing since we really needed our Pittsburgh players to perform even remotely close to their established averages. Unfortunately, the Steelers offense just looked lost and, while they dispute it, they look very much like they overlooked or underestimated the Jets.

Kicker – Blair Walsh – $4,500

At this time last season, Blair Walsh was at or near the top of kicker values week in and week out. While I don’t value kickers all that highly (as you’ve likely read throughout this series), this could be quite a value pick here since we know Walsh can boot the ball when given the opportunity. With a game this week against Chicago, I have a feeling the Vikings will be looking to add any points they can in a likely battle of field position.

Projected Stat Line – Three field goals, two extra points

Follow-Up – Dan Bailey – ($5,200) – Dan Bailey had a very nice 54-yard field goal last week which got us a few points. That’s not to mention the four extra points he was able to collect as well when the Cowboys made the Jaguars look silly in front of the Wembley Stadium crowd in London. Unfortunately, Bailey also had a kick blocked, but you can’t really pin that failure on him as the offensive line should never have let that happen. Nonetheless, a nice ten point game from Bailey placed his dollars per point value at $520 points, a value that is about as good as you can reasonably expect from a kicker.

Defense – New York Giants – $4,600

I’m not overly thrilled trotting out the New York Giants defense this week, but they have the best matchup of the low priced options. Additionally, their low price tag allows us to bulk up some of our other positions as well. While not traditionally a great matchup for defenses the 49ers haven’t looked as scary in recent weeks as their reputation would have you believe. For instance, only two weeks ago the St. Louis Rams were able to sack Colin Kaepernick a career high eight times. In what amounts to a must-win game for the Giants, I expect them to step up defensively and apply more pressure to Kaepernick in an effort to fluster him.

Projected Stat Line – 20 points against, four sacks and two interceptions

Follow-Up – Denver Broncos – ($5,300) – Denver’s defense didn’t exactly knock it out of the park last week against Oakland, but they did put up seven points, roughly the same as their season average thus far. In all honesty, the Broncos should have been able to handle the Oakland offense much better than what they actually did, so this is a bit disappointing. However, fantasy defenses tend to be very volatile in their scoring and seven points isn’t exactly horrible from a defense, it’s just average.

George Kritikos is out for the week so it’s just me riding solo. We’ll see him back here next all refreshed and ready to keep dispensing excellent daily advice to all of our readers!

 

 

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