Dynasty Stock Market: Perishable Players

Ryan McDowell

bradshaw

Every season, there are players that surprise us with their play and fantasy scoring. Sometimes, these players prove they are legitimate talents, despite the lack of hype prior to their breakout. Some examples of players like this are Alfred Morris, Arian Foster, Marques Colston, Victor Cruz and Tony Romo. None of these were highly drafted in their rookie year, yet they all eventually proved to have staying power in the NFL and the world of dynasty fantasy football.

Not all players are like this, though. Just because a player has some value now or is playing well now, that doesn’t mean he will automatically maintain that value. No, in fact, many of those surprise players quickly fade away as soon as the confetti drops and a Super Bowl champion is crowned. I refer to these types as Perishable Players. Just like many items currently inhabiting your refrigerator, these players come with a strict expiration date. Just like when pushing the limits on your milk, keeping these players past this date can be scary and may even make you ill.

There are some commonalities between all Perishable Players that may help you be able to easily identity them in the future. First, the player must be performing at a surprisingly high level. This does not necessarily mean the player is a top ten option at his position, just that he is easily outscoring all projections that were made of him. Next, Perishable Players are viewed as short-term answers for their team. Many players will lose value over the coming months and it is difficult or even impossible to correctly predict their identities, especially if they are younger and look to be there to stay. This brings me to the next characteristic that the majority of Perishable Players have in common…age. Many of this year’s Perishable Players have long track records of success in the NFL and they’ve been valuable assets in past years, but age has caught up to them. While it may not be affecting their play on the field this season, it has destroyed their dynasty value.

Before we dive into some specific examples of this season’s Perishable Players, let’s discuss what to do with these players. If your team is not contending, you must move these players, regardless of the value you’re getting in return. After all, once the proverbial clock strikes midnight, these players have lost all value and will often find themselves on dynasty waiver wires this off-season. Because these players are producing, they do have some short-term value to contending teams. This scenario is ideal for crafting a win-win trade that can lead one team to a title and the other reloading for a playoff march in the coming seasons.

If you are currently managing a contending team, the decisions regarding these players become much more arduous. If you already own these types of players, you most likely have to stick with them, barring a deep team where they can’t make their way off your bench. If they are starting for your championship contender, you have to hold, despite their near guaranteed ensuing value drop. Acquiring these players from the aforementioned building teams is often a good idea as the price is very reasonable compared to other more established players that could be on the trading block. A Perishable Player can often be had for a second or even third round pick as the owner wants to get out from the declining asset before it’s too late. The decision on whether you should buy or sell comes down to your honest assessment of your team’s status for this year.

Here are a list of players I consider Perishable Players for 2014:

Kyle Orton, QB BUF

Kyle Orton surprisingly took the starting gig away from second year man EJ Manuel and hasn’t looked back. Since his time as a starter, Orton has been a QB1 and a cheap option for fantasy owners who were lacking at the position. Unfortunately for Orton owners, there are so many other cheap options that it will likely be impossible to get any trade value for Orton. I don’t see much of a chance he enters 2015 as the Bills’ starter and he should hit waiver wires as soon as the fantasy season ends.

Justin Forsett, RB BAL

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The Ravens’ veteran starter Justin Forsett has been one of the great stories of the year. When the Ravens needed help the most, following the off-field issues and subsequent suspension and release of Ray Rice, combined with the complete flop of a season by Bernard Pierce, Forsett stepped up. He’s currently the RB6 on the season, ahead of players like Andre Ellington, Jamaal Charles and Eddie Lacy. Forsett is already 29 years old and I can’t see any way he could ever repeat this performance in future years.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB IND

The Colts’ Ahmad Bradshaw is a tough player to figure. He’s always had the talent, but his downfall has been constant injury issues. In each of the past two seasons, he’s overtaken Trent Richardson and has shown to be the better runner. I’ll be honest, I would’ve tagged Bradshaw as a Perishable Player last season as well, but here he is again. Bradshaw is RB8, but is also 28 years old with that extensive injury history. If the Colts decide Richardson is not their back of the future, I expect them to look somewhere else, rather than return to Bradshaw, though he is among the more valuable of the Perishable Players.

Matt Asiata, RB MIN

The Vikings’ Matt Asiata is probably one of the easier players to peg as having short-term value. Whether it’s the potential return of Adrian Peterson or the ascension of rookie Jerick McKinnon, Asiata will soon be riding the pine. If you can get anything of value for him, do it!

Fred Jackson, RB BUF

Much like Bradshaw, Fred Jackson just keeps going and going. Although he has missed some time due to injury this year, he’s been widely mentioned lately as a player to acquire for teams pushing for a playoff spot or title run. Jackson, like his teammate CJ Spiller, is a free agent following this season and the Bills could finally opt for a younger option, such as Bryce Brown. As the oldest running back in the league, this could be the swan song for Jackson.

Bobby Rainey, RB TB

It’s really surprising Bobby Rainey has maintained any value in Tampa Bay. Of course, they still have Doug Martin, who not too long ago was valued as one of the top backs in the league. They also added rookie Charles Sims. Both Sims and Martin have dealt with injuries this year, allowing Rainey to once again lead the team in rushing yards. It looks like the team is basically giving up on Martin and counting on Sims to be the man. While Rainey may maintain some in-season value, he has no real long-term value and will be cut by dynasty owners in the near future.

Steve Smith, WR BAL

The revitalization of Steve Smith has been a beautiful thing to watch this year, but he’s beginning to show his age and his value his bottomed out. I recently drafted him in the twentieth and final round of one of our in-season dynasty mock drafts. He may never go quietly and his name value could keep him on a dynasty roster through the off-season, just don’t let it be your roster.

Brandon LaFell, WR NE

The New England Patriots have been responsible for creating several Perishable Players over the past few years. While Brandon LaFell is not as old as some of the players on this list and while he is likely to return to the Patriots next season, I can’t see him scoring like he has this year. I also get the feeling that most fantasy owners don’t quite trust him yet, despite his impressive run of late, meaning his value just isn’t there.

Eddie Royal, WR SD

You don’t think of a player like Eddie Royal being touchdown dependent, but that’s just what has happened over the past two seasons. After all, over 30% of his fantasy points the past two seasons have come from touchdowns and just like last season, that’s proving to be a bit of a fluke as the season continues.

Malcom Floyd, WR SD

When I first thought of the term Perishable Players, Malcom Floyd is the player that came to mind. He’s actually a repeat offender. Every season, he puts up enough fantasy points to earn a spot on some owner’s roster and every off-season, he’s dropped for a player with more youth and upside. I don’t expect this year to be any different.

Andrew Hawkins, WR CLE

Andrew Hawkins is a player who was on waiver wires when he was playing well for the Bengals. His move to Cleveland didn’t inspire any waiver action either, until we learned that Josh Gordon would miss extensive time and someone would have to catch the ball for the Browns. Hawkins has played well, but has been inconsistent. With Gordon due back soon, Hawkins looks will decrease, as will any value he has left.

Antonio Gates, TE SD

Much like running backs Bradshaw and Jackson, tight end Antonio Gates is a player who just keeps playing well, even though dynasty owners are ready to move on. Gates is again a top six player at his position, just as he’s been for much of his career. Gates is signed through 2015 and with his current level of production, expect him to be back next year, meaning while his value is likely to drop during the off-season, he should be well-worth the risk of acquiring now or anytime prior to 2015.

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ryan mcdowell