2015 NFL Free Agents: The Elite

Brian Bulmer Posted On November 12, 2014

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I want to give a huge shoutout to our friends at Spotrac.com. The website is full of information that makes the research and writing of this article series and many others much easier. Myself and the rest of DLF would like to thank those at Spotrac for all of their hard work and allowing us to share invaluable information with fantasy football managers that help shape and mold their teams now and in the future.

Outside of the NFL Draft, few things are more exciting to dynasty owners than free agency. The 2015 free agent class is full of players who are elite high value players, misused players and players who could benefit from a fresh start. The player’s current situation and how each individual is being used by their current team directly affect their current value. What would happen if one of these players landed in another location?

The dynasty landscape is fluid and full of changes, just as the NFL landscape is. At this point in our dynasty seasons, owners need to evaluate the direction of their teams. Are they in position to make a push and win a championship? Or is it time to cut bait with some older veterans and garner younger talent? Maybe you have a player who has been misused or needs a fresh start and the value of said player would significantly increase if they landed elsewhere.

In this series, I will focus on the 2015 free agent class and see how the possible changes could affect each player’s value moving forward. I am a realist and I know not every team will let these players walk, so I will also look at potential value changes if the players stay at their current locations. I will use ADP generated by DLF’s own Ryan McDowell – he recently generated ADP based on mock drafts for the month of November. I will use these values to look at the 2015 free agents currently with a dynasty rank in the top 25.

Dez Bryant, WR, Age 26
Dynasty ADP 1

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Dez Bryant is a dynasty darling and at this point there is very little that can change that. Bryant is third in the league in targets and in the top ten in receptions and touchdowns. He is currently in the top ten among fantasy wide receivers. He signed with a new agent over the weekend as he joined Jay Z’s Roc Nation. In my opinion, it is highly likely Bryant returns to the Cowboys in 2015. Although there is some current speculation surrounding his off the field issues and how it will affect the amount of guaranteed money in his contract. There are reports he has been offered a 10 year $114 million dollar deal per NLF.com and Ian Rappaport. With the contract of both Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray on the table, it will be interesting to see how the Cowboys approach this situation and if Bryant is willing to earn significantly less than most elite NFL wide receivers.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, Age 27
Dynasty ADP 2

The Denver Broncos have a big off-season ahead of them as they try to sign both Demaryius and Julius Thomas. Demaryius has morphed into a solid route runner in the Denver offense and after a slow start is currently second among all wide receivers in PPR points. The Broncos will likely part ways with Wes Welker and free up some cap space to resign at least one of the Thomas’. I project Demaryius to be back with Peyton Manning next year in Denver. His dynasty value remains unchanged and his fantasy production steady.

DeMarco Murray, RB, Age 27
Dynasty ADP 16

Murray has been running at a blistering pace this season with eight games with over 100+ rushing yards from scrimmage. The Cowboys continue to mention they are going to get their running back fewer touches. The last two weeks, Murray has averaged 23 touches a game after averaging 29.9 touches in the first seven games. Is this the Cowboys trying to reduce punishment for this season or for Murray’s future? The Cowboys have several players set to be free agents including starting right tackle Jeremy Parnell, linebacker Bruce Carter, along with wide receiver Dez Bryant, and comeback player of the year candidate Rolando McClain. With many key players to re-sign and the potential depth of 2015 running back class, should fantasy owners expect the Cowboys to resign Murray? Currently they seem to have a blueprint for winning and Murray is a big part of that. I expect the Cowboys to make an offer to make Murray one of the top paid running backs in the league. How they handle Murray moving forward could tell us more about his future. At 25+ touches a game, Murray will break down very quick. History shows a dramatic drop in production following seasons with running backs getting 400+ touches. If I am out of playoff contention I may be trying to deal Murray this season to an owner if I could get a nice return. Otherwise, outside of Matt Forte, there is no other back I would rather have in the fantasy playoffs than him.

Randall Cobb, WR, Age 25
Dynasty ADP 17

Redzone Randall has scored nine touchdowns on the season and nearly 36% of his fantasy production comes from those touchdowns. Regression is likely, but his usage in the red zone cannot go unnoticed. Cobb’s red zone usage is higher than any other wide receiver in the NFL, including his teammate Jordy Nelson. Cobb has scored on 58.3% of his snaps inside the twenty compared to Nelson’s 21.4%. Nelson signed a new contract prior to the start of the 2014 NFL season and now Cobb is due for a new contract this season. At 25 years of age to start the 2015 season, Cobb will still be a young talent in his prime, but he could be seeking top ten wide receiver money. The Packers addressed the wide receiver position in the 2014 draft by adding Davante Adams in round two, Jared Abbrederis in round five and Jeff Janis in round seven. The addition of tight end Richard Rogers in round three included another pass catcher in the Aaron Rodgers-led offense. What will be done with Randall Cobb? I expect the Packers to trim some of the cap by releasing Matt Flynn and possibly BJ Raji. A pay cut or release of Tramon Williams would also be a possibility to make cap room to resign Cobb and right tackle Brian Bulaga. Ted Thompson has created some flexibility by adding to his crop of wide receivers. The re-signing of Cobb is tough to predict at this point. He will likely have many suitors, but will he chase the money or will Thompson lock him up long-term?

Julius Thomas, TE, Age 27
Dynasty ADP 24

No one has benefited more in the Denver offense the last two seasons than Julius Thomas. He has really shined and patient dynasty owners are finally getting paid back in monster fantasy production. Orange Julius has been a big play tight end finishing second in fantasy points in 2013 among all tight ends. His 2014 campaign is off to a blazing start with ten touchdowns in nine games as he’s fifth among all tight ends in fantasy points. However, Peyton Manning makes Thomas a more productive tight end in both NFL and fantasy football. Will the Broncos be able to make room financially to sign both Julius and Demaryius Thomas? With Wes Welker likely moving on after this season and Manning nearing the end of his career, I would say John Elway will make all the moves necessary to keep both of the Thomas’ in Mile High next season.

Look for the next article in the series where I spotlight the likes of Michael Crabtree, Jordan Cameron, Jeremy Maclin, Shane Vereen, Torrey Smith, Mark Ingram and Ryan Mathews.

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