Tuesday Transactions: Week Ten

Eric Hardter

floyd

Dynasty football is undoubtedly a marathon, not a sprint. With that said, in-season roster management is still every bit as critical as in a standard re-draft format, and arguably even more so given the potential long-term ramifications. As such, this weekly piece is here to provide you with a dozen moves it might just behoove you to make.

Continuing, these transactions will be broken down into four categories: players you should buy low, sell high, buy high and sell low. The first two are self explanatory and follow the typical stock market analogy, which is that you should pounce when the market fluctuates in your favor – if you can get the most bang for your buck or scoop up the metaphorical penny stocks who have room to grow, it could be in your best interest to do so. Conversely, the latter two categories represent a contradictory stance, and some might even consider them “desperation” moves – however, it’s my belief that buying high beats buying higher, and selling low is preferable to selling even lower.

Before I dispense my advice though, I want to provide one final disclaimer – these opinions are my own. If you’re higher or lower on any of the players mentioned below you should absolutely stick to your guns. With that said, I believe there’s also enough of a sample size thus far in the season where we can begin to diverge from our off-season assessments.

In the interest of transparency, here were my week nine suggestions:

Buy Low: Robert Turbin, Michael Floyd and Marqise Lee

Sell High: Mark Ingram, Ben Roethlisberger and Bobby Rainey

Buy High: Alfred Blue, Robert Quinn and Ryan Tannehill

Sell Low: Ben Tate, Wes Welker and Colin Kaepernick

Turbin (6-32-0) had a decent day on the ground but lost a fumble, Floyd (1-11-0) was once again nowhere to be found, as was Lee (1-13-0). Ingram put together a surprisingly effective (27-120-0, 3-19-0) performance versus the 49ers, Roethlisberger’s line (30/43, 343/1/2) was saved by a garbage time touchdown bomb and Rainey (6-14-0, 4-42-0) had his predictable letdown following a good game last week. Quinn (4 tackles, 1.0 sacks and 1.0 TFL) stayed hot, Tannehill (27/38, 204-1-1, 0 yards rushing) cooled off and Blue was on bye. Tate (10-34-1, 2-27-0) received the third most carries amongst Browns running backs, Welker (4-24-0) remained a distant fourth receiving option and Kaepernick (14/32, 210-1-0, 24 rushing yards) struggled for the majority of the game against the Saints.

Onto the fallout from week ten!

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Buy Low

  1. Cody Latimer, WR DEN – Let’s face it, thus far this season we’ve been spoiled by the early returns from the rookie class of 2014, namely the receivers. But make no mistake, this remains the exception, not the rule – more often than not it takes years for pass catchers to develop into fantasy-viable forces, be it due to adjustments to the professional game or simply because there’s a glut of talent at the position. The latter aptly describes Latimer, who remains behind Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Wes Welker and tight end Julius Thomas in a fight for fantasy relevance. With that said, Welker is more than likely gone next year, and the Broncos still need to re-sign the Thomas Brothers – should they fail to ink both, Latimer could slide in as the third option in a Peyton Manning-led passing attack come 2015. If you’re not contending, now is the time to buy players like Latimer.
  2. Rashad Jennings, RB NYG – Ever since Jennings got hurt in a week five clash with the Falcons, backup Andre Williams (he of the Hall of Fame Game hype) has turned 80 carries into a meager 230 yards (2.9 YPC), while only contributing five receptions in the passing game. While his dynasty value remains intact, it’s glaringly obvious how much Jennings’ presence has been missed in the backfield. Given his feature-back ability, including running, catching and blocking, I expect Jennings to resume his place as the Giants’ bell-cow, and once again flirt with PPR RB1 viability. This is more than likely your last chance to buy low.
  3. Travis Kelce, TE KC – Low is a relative term here, as the majority of Kelce owners might choose the athletic tight end over their own first-borns if push came to shove. With that said, ever since his week four immolation of the Patriots (8-93-1), Kelce has slowed considerably. He’s only achieved six targets once in the last five games (20 total), sporting an average line of 3.2/35.8/0.4, culminating in 9.2 fantasy points per game. It will more than likely still cost at least a mid-to-late first round pick to acquire his services, but based on his previous price point (and factoring in his talent) that’s not a bad deal right now.

Sell High

  1. Adrian Peterson, RB MIN – In a somewhat surprising turn of events, Peterson’s plea deal, as well as the Vikings brass seeming willingness to welcome him back, have turned the erstwhile RB1 into a legitimate fantasy commodity for the remainder of the season. While the NFL has yet to officially accommodate Peterson’s return, it’s expected he’ll be good to go some point soon. This gives rebuilding squads a great chance to cash out, which might not be a bad idea regardless. Peterson is owed an untenable $12.75 million in 2015, only $2.4 million of which is guaranteed, and Minnesota could very well choose to part ways with the soon-to-be 30-year old. Rookie Jerick McKinnon has looked good in limited opportunity, so even if Peterson returns this season, the future remains murky.
  2. Frank Gore, RB SF – While Gore finally got the volume (23 carries) that had been lacking earlier in the season, he did precious little (81 yards) with it despite a plus matchup with the mediocre Saints run defense (4.2 YPC against, t-15th on the season). A rushing score helped his final line, but it was only his second on the year, and he continues to be mystifyingly underutilized in the passing game (six total receptions). A date with the Giants next week should theoretically boost his value, but we’ve seen Gore struggle against bad defenses lately (2.9 YPC carry in two games versus the Rams over the past month), so there’s no guarantee he turns it around.
  3. Roddy White, WR ATL – White has looked better over the course of the past three games, with 20 receptions for 238 yards and two touchdowns. While that looks nice in print, it’s imperative to remember that a good chunk of that (9/100/1) came versus Detroit, when White accumulated a whopping 15 targets. That represented only the second time this season White had recorded double-digit looks, and with 65 total targets on the season he’s been a clear second to teammate Julio Jones (94 targets). Rowdy Roddy has been winning with efficiency lately, catching 74.0% of his targets over the afore-mentioned three-game stretch – that clip easily trumps his career average of 58.7%, and is a lock to regress. I’d sell before that inevitably occurs.

Buy High

  1. Percy Harvin, WR NYJ – Ever since the early-season trade from Seattle, Harvin has been playing (and more importantly has been utilized) like a new man. Despite having little time to assimilate the Jets’ offense, the former Seahawk has been targeted 27 times in the past three games, good for a 27.6% market share. Harvin has corralled 17 of those passes, which in addition to his 11 rushing attempts means he’s touching the ball 9.3 times per game, a total nearly unheard of for a wide receiver. Though the pace might slow a bit, it’s clear to see he’s being utilized as a full-time player, not a gadget/decoy as he was with the Seahawks – in all likelihood the cost will reflect this change, but given his dynamic abilities Harvin could very well be worth it.
  2. Josh Gordon, WR CLE – In 14 games during the 2013 season, Gordon eclipsed 100 yards receiving seven times. Nine games into 2014, Cleveland pass catchers have aggregated to top 100 yards all of twice. While this isn’t altogether unsurprising, it goes to show just how good Gordon truly is, and how much of an upgrade he’ll likely provide to the passing offense. Even though the Browns have reinvented themselves as a running team, I expect Gordon to hog targets and return to his previously elite form – both the Browns and fantasy owners alike could use him.
  3. Jarvis Landry, WR MIA – Two weeks ago in this space I called Landry’s receiving counterpart Brian Hartline a “sell low” and as I’ve describe previously there’s likely an equal, opposite reaction. Enter Landry. Despite lacking elite (or even average) measureables, the rookie Landry has emerged as the team team’s second-best pass catcher behind Mike Wallace. In fact, since the opening game where he didn’t receive a single look, Landry has averaged 6.1 targets per game, concluding in a ten-target day on Sunday. While his playmaking ability (9.6 YPC) leaves much to be desired, Landry is catching a large portion of his looks (75.5%), and in addition has managed a pair of receiving scores. As he continues to ascend I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect PPR WR3 ability for the future, with a WR2 ceiling.

Sell Low

  1. Vernon Davis, TE SF – Boy, those 13 touchdowns in 2013 sure seem like a long time ago, huh? Indeed, since Davis’ two-score opener this season, he hasn’t reached the end zone once. While this would be okay on numerous other teams, San Francisco simply doesn’t present nearly enough passing volume to support multiple options, and Davis hasn’t seen more than six targets in any given game this year. Maddeningly touchdown-dependent, Davis has been completely useless this season, as his yearly line (17-169-2) reads like an elite game from Demaryius Thomas. Continuing, 20.4 of his 45.9 PPR points (44.4%) came in week one, meaning his weekly average for the rest of the season stands at a pathetic 4.3 points. While there’s always a possibility he could turn it around, I’d rather let someone else take that bet.
  2. Marques Colston, WR NO – Essentially the wide receiver version of Davis above, Colston has only eclipsed 100 yards once since a strong opener (5-110-0), falling well behind Jimmy Graham and rookie Brandin Cooks in the target pecking order. Also similar to Davis, Colston only has one 2014 score, resulting in a failure to eclipse 10.0 PPR points five times in nine games. Again, there’s always the possibility for a turnaround, but when it comes to aging players, I’ll almost always bet the under.
  3. Carson Palmer, QB ARI – While it pains me to effectively pile more dirt on Palmer’s fantasy gravestone, the prudent move here (likely only applicable in deep leagues or superflex/2QB leagues) is to sell. Though he was having one of the best seasons of his career, Palmer remains a soon-to-be 35-year old signal caller coming off a second ACL tear. Already immobile, this injury could make him a sitting duck in the pocket and it’s fair to wonder if Palmer himself will even want to come back. Given the depth at the quarterback position, this story simply isn’t worth seeing through – sell for whatever you can, as soon as you can.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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eric hardter