Off-Season Reflections: Great Expectations
Over the past few weeks, you have had to make season-altering decisions. Maybe it’s deciding to go for the championship this year, or maybe it’s moving on from veterans and stockpiling picks or young players who will hopefully contribute to future success. While the focus should be on making that future great, this is always a good time of the year to reflect on the past – where you went wrong or right. All the decisions, big or small, that crafted your teams are worth looking back on and learning from. Our Ty Miller was also feeling in a reflective mood this week:
Well, its time for some self-reflection in regards to my preseason predictions.
— Ty Miller (@Ty_In_StL) November 6, 2014
… and I believe everyone should take some time in the midst of the ‘business’ part of the season to reflect on how well we did at predicting what is happening now. Are we doing it the right way? Where can we improve? So far in this series looking at ADP data from the off-season, we have covered running back risers and some big-name fallers. Here I look at more big names who rose due to expectations of improvement.
Julius Thomas, TE DEN
March ADP: 44, August ADP: 30 (+14)
AND
Jordan Cameron, TE CLE
March ADP: 52, August ADP: 41 (+11)
We saw both these players benefit from the ‘tight end thirst’ heading into the season. With the lack of clear stars at the position, these two who had huge breakout years in 2013 were targeted early. We expected Thomas to see even more of the ball with Eric Decker moving on, and he came up big early; scoring nine touchdowns in his first six games. Interestingly, he has only gone over 70 yards one time this year (and only four times in his career), but as long as the touchdowns keep coming he is a difference-maker in your team. Cameron hasn’t benefited from the absence of Josh Gordon, as he has rarely seen the field in at full health in 2014. His third concussion in as many years might have his owner worried so if you can afford to be patient with him, take a gamble.
September ADPs: 24 and 40
Matt Stafford, QB DET
March ADP: 63, August ADP: 47 (+16)
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He jumped from QB6 to QB3 over the summer, but has yet to live up to his usual standards (ranking 4th, 9th and 5th over the last three seasons). The assumption was that fellow riser Golden Tate would provide an extra outlet for Stafford, but we haven’t seen much of the Calvin Johnson and Tate duo after Johnson’s injury late in week three, though this week provided us a glimpse of what could be possible. It is difficult to see Stafford falling out the top five dynasty quarterbacks as long as he keeps slinging it to his favorite target now that he’s returned.
September ADP: 44
Justin Hunter, WR TEN
March ADP: 75, August ADP: 56 (+19)
We beg of you Justin – please break out. The sophomore has many believers here at DLF, but we must remain patient with him. Seeing as the Titans have been through three different quarterbacks so far this year, I’m still willing to give him some time to show his talent. If you are considering letting him go, I urge you to wait a little longer.
September ADP: 54
Jeremy Maclin, WR PHI
March ADP: 104, August ADP: 81 (+23)
The ‘Eagles WR1’ position is becoming a valuable commodity. Maclin was very deserving of the off-season rise in ADP after stepping into the starting role with DeSean Jackson’s departure, but his dynasty future may hinge on his contract and where he ends up in 2015. Assuming he does stay in Philadelphia, he is arguably a top 15-20 receiver moving forward. If he moves on, pay close attention to who will step into that valuable role.
September ADP: 41
Golden Tate, WR DET
March ADP: 148, August ADP: 98 (+50)
Tate has been on a tear recently as he had at least seven catches and 100 yards in four of the five games since Calvin Johnson’s injury and posted another great line yesterday. He moved from a run-first offense (Russell Wilson probably wishes he had another receiver right now) to a pass-happy one and will continue to see targets, but I am very wary that he will not continue at his current pace now that Johnson has returned. I believe Tate is a great sell-high coming off some fantastic games.
September ADP: 72
Emmanuel Sanders, WR DEN
March ADP: 147, August ADP: 99 (+48)
Little Sanders is killing it. His ADP rise was sound and sensible – a new toy for Peyton Manning to play with. He carved out his own role in the Denver offense and halfway through the season has already set a career-high in receiving yards. He has seen over nine targets in 75% of his games this season including a massive 16 against New England in week nine and until young Cody Latimer can gain Manning’s trust and make an impact, Sanders will continue to be a great play every week.
September ADP: 55
Kenny Britt, WR STL
March ADP: 166, August ADP: 130 (+36)
Unfortunately, we can never really quit Kenny Britt. He has been the type of player who is ‘worth a late-round flier’ for a while now, and it’s about time we let go. He should have made much more impact in a very underwhelming Rams receiver group, but he didn’t. The injury to Brian Quick may only drag us in again, but when all is said and done, he will not fail to disappoint. Don’t let him hurt you anymore.
September ADP: 188
Greg Jennings, WR MIN
March ADP: 162, August ADP: 138 (+24)
The arrival of Norv Turner had a big impact on Jennings’ outlook for this year, which Jeff Miller outlined in his take down of Cordarrelle Patterson back in April. Unfortunately, for all of Norv’s genius, the Vikings rank 29th in total offense having been hit hard by injuries and one obvious suspension. Jennings has now only gone over 20 points once in his last 20 games and Teddy Bridgewater’s rookie struggles don’t bode well for that to change.
September ADP: 156
Other Notables
Kenny Stills, WR NO (March ADP: 128, August ADP: 102), Marquess Wilson, WR CHI (March ADP: 186, August ADP: 148), Andre Holmes, WR OAK (March ADP: 189, August ADP: 165), Andrew Hawkins, WR CLE (March ADP: Undrafted, August ADP: 166), Mike Williams, WR BUF (March ADP: Undrafted, August ADP: 184), Heath Miller, TE PIT (March ADP: 232, August ADP: 181), Geno Smith, QB NYJ (March ADP: 230, August ADP: 199)
Evaluate Your Processes
Looking back at past draft data helps you understand that we all rank, evaluate and project in different ways. Your past experiences shape the way you feel about players, but don’t let that past tarnish a potentially improved future. One ill-advised process I have that sometimes hinders my success is taking comparisons personally. Rather than taking an independent view of a player being compared to one of my ‘favorites,’ I tend to hold a grudge and over-compensate by exaggerating my views. Two examples of this are Ryan Tannehill and Mike Evans. I’ve been very negative with my view on Tannehill for a long time now, as he was still regarded by some to be part of the talented group from the 2012 class along with Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson after his rookie year (and even second). I reacted badly because I don’t see him anywhere near those two but rather than accepting he could still be a good and serviceable quarterback, I made up my mind that he was ‘the worst.’
Evans hasn’t exactly ‘arrived’ yet, but he has started to show the talent many believe he has. In my mind, he doesn’t come close to Sammy Watkins, but he is still seen as the number one dynasty receiver in the 2014 class by many people (including some here at DLF). My initial reaction when he rose up rankings in 2013 was to drop him out of my top ten receivers in the class (which doesn’t seem that bad considering the amount of talented ones), but I settled for WR6 in my rookie WR rankings as he holds value taken higher even if I am not a fan. I may be right on Evans long term, but I let the initial comparison to Watkins cloud my judgement of him. Even if I hit on one or two players like this, it is not a smart or logical way to approach evaluating them. Recognize the problem, and make sure it doesn’t happen in the future.
What lessons did you learn from the off-season? Are there any processes that cloud your player evaluations? Share them with James @JS_Football
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As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football
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