Daily Optimized Lineups: Week Nine

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As part of that experience we at DLF felt it might be of particular interest to our readers to provide them with an optimized lineup that they should be able to plug into a Head to Head or 50/50 game and fully expect to win some money.

Winning at daily fantasy requires such a precise mix of skill and luck that sometimes it seems impossible to master, even to those of us who have been playing since its inception. Take for instance last week when many of our less heralded picks outperformed their prices but then the sure bet, Dez Bryant, had a horrible game. What’s worse is his horrible game wasn’t really even his fault, it was due in large part to an injury (and I use that term lightly) to his quarterback which then threw Dallas’ whole game plan into disarray. It’s these kind of developments that make daily fantasy so maddening, yet also so addictive when it happened to others or when the luck you encounter is of the good variety. Speaking of good luck, that’s what I’m hoping we all experience this week with the following picks:

Quarterback – Nick Foles – $8,400

Nick Foles is one of the more expensive options we’ve profiled in this column thus far, but with a brutal bye week you are going to have to pay for production at positions of scarcity this week. Foles is at the controls of Chip Kelly’s high-profile offense which loves to spread the ball around in order to keep defenses off their game. The Eagles, however, love to pass the ball in order to drive down the field as evidenced by their 61.4% passing play percentage, the sixth highest in the NFL. This high percentage of passing has allowed them to rack up 283.6 passing yard per game, also sixth highest in the NFL. Meanwhile, their opponent Houston have seen their opponents pass on 60.7% percent of plays against them, the eighth most among NFL defenses. The Texans have also surrendered 271.4 passing yard per game, the fourth most in the NFL. Furthermore, Houston is giving up roughly two passing touchdowns per game, the fourth most in the league, so look for for opportunities to get even more points for Foles off some passing touchdowns as well.

Projected Stat Line – 28 completions for 316 yards and two touchdowns

Follow-Up – Carson Palmer – ($7,400) – Palmer proved to be a very nice bargain for us last week, posting his best fantasy game of the season thus far. His 21.16 point performance pegged him at a price per point total of $350 dollars. Palmer hit almost exactly my prediction for him and actually surpassed it by just a hair.

Running Back – Jamaal Charles – $9,000

Charles faces the New York Jets this week after a nice return to form last week. There may be some understandable concern here given Charles’ performance throughout the rest of the season as well as the Jets defensive performance versus the rush. Most notable here is the Jets have only given up 85.4 rushing yards per game on average thus far this season, the fifth fewest in the NFL. Starting a running back against this kind of opponent normally isn’t the kind of matchup one would look to be a part of. However, the play here is the fact that Charles is such a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield that this decision starts to make a lot more sense. Given the fact that Charles is such a big part of Kansas City’s passing game and Donnie Avery is out this week, look for Charles to get a few more additional targets as well. The bump should be enough to spike his production a bit. Finally, given the point spread on this game Charles could be racking up points in the pass game early and the rush game later, a win-win kind of situation.

Projected Stat Line – 24 rushes for 85 yards and one touchdown, eight receptions for 65 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Follow-Up – Marshawn Lynch – ($8,500) – Lynch is such a frustrating player. He has an immense amount of talent but appears to be derailed by emotional issues. The rumor going around fantasy circles is that Lynch just didn’t have his heart in last weeks game due to Seattle trading Percy Harvin. Now, I’m not sure I believe that completely, but what was clear is Lynch was well off his game for one reason or another. Last week Lynch scored only 6.9 fantasy point putting his price per point an an absolutely abysmal $1232 per point! Disappointing is the only way to describe a performance as poor as this.

Running Back – Jeremy Hill – $5,200

These are the kind of plays I love, a rookie running back who has already been a significant contributor to his team thus far, gets a shot at stepping into the starting roll. Jeremy Hill is already very familiar with the Bengals offense and he knows where he needs to be and when to get there. With Giovani Bernard possibly out this week, look for Hill to get a lion’s share of the Bengals backfield work this week. He should be able to stay in on passing downs and should also see a few passes out of the backfield as well which makes him even more valuable given his low price tag. Also, he’s facing the Jaguars which means he could be running the ball a lot throughout the game if Cincinnati is able to build any kind of lead, which they definitely should be able to do. There’s a whole lot to like about Hill’s price, situation and matchup this week. The only question will be just how many people will ultimately end up thinking the same way?

Projected Stat Line – 22 rushes for 115 yards and two touchdowns, three receptions for 30 yards

Follow-Up – Jerick McKinnon – ($5,800) – For as talented as I believe Jerick McKinnon is, he may ultimately need a bit more seasoning before I trust him in my daily lineups in the near future. McKinnon scored a fairly pedestrian 8.7 points last week which put his price per point total at $666 dollars per point. The dollar amount is fairly ironic because it felt like hell watching McKinnon being kept out of the endzone and seeing such a great value play evaporate with every second that ticked by against a fairly easy opponent in Tampa Bay.

Wide Receiver – Jeremy Maclin – $8,400

So this Jeremy Maclin play is basically the ying to the Nick Foles yang play. If Foles is going to be passing the ball a lot, it’s extremely likely a large percentage of those passes will be thrown to Maclin. Furthermore, Maclin has been doing pretty well in the touchdown department averaging just about a touchdown per game this season. Additionally, the primary opposing receiver in games against Houston have averaged just under 105 yards thus far this season. When you factor in the amount of passing plays Philadelphia uses against their opponents, suddenly you’ve got quite the matchup for Maclin this week. Against a traditionally stiff Texans rush defense the most likely way to move the ball for Philadelphia is going to have come through the air. So while Maclin’s price is a bit steep it should definitely be worth it to pay a little more for his production and possible upside this weekend.

Projected Stat Line – Eight receptions for 125 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Dez Bryant – ($8,800) – Sometimes when a player underperforms, it just isn’t his fault, such was the case with Dez Bryant. For those of you who didn’t watch the game, Bryant’s quarterback (Tony Romo) went down when he was kneed in the back during a play. In my opinion, nothing looked all that serious on the play, but Romo stayed down and had to be taken to the training room for an evaluation. He returned very late in the fourth quarter after he seemed to be begging to get back on the field. I didn’t buy any of this display truthfully, but I digress. Once Romo left the game, the Cowboys’ offensive game plan changed and Bryant failed to get many target which inevitably made an underperformance possible. Bryant scored 10.5 points which made his price per point a lowly $838 per point scored.

Wide Receiver – DeAndre Hopkins – $6900

[inlinead]If I like Philadelphia enough to stack them, I probably should like the Houston wide receivers also since they look to be headed into a shootout with the Eagles. Hopkins has developed in a very talented and dependable professional. Hopkins has had five receptions or more in all but one game this season and he’s averaged a little over 100 yards receiving over the past two games. Meanwhile, the Eagles aren’t doing much better than their opponents this week since they they are giving up roughly 267 passing yards per game thus season, seventh most in the NFL. Philadelphia is also giving up the third most passing touchdowns per game with 2.1 touchdowns surrendered through the air per game this season, third most in the NFL. I expect the ball to be constantly in the air between Houston and Philadelphia and Hopkins could be a big part of that.

Projected Stat Line – Six receptions for 104 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Jeremy Maclin – ($8,000) – Jeremy Maclin really lit it up last weekend going on a 36.7 point scoring-fest, his best performance this year. His performance was so good that it far exceeded my already high expectations for him. His point total brought his price per point to a very welcome $218 dollars. I think this deal is the new lowest price per point total since we began tracking it early this season.

Wide Receiver – Anquan Boldin – $6,300

The good think about Boldin is he tends to show up for the games you’d expect him to and this week is one I think he could really shine in. The last time Boldin faced the Rams he had a great game, posting seven receptions for 94 yards and a touchdown which netted him 18.9 points. This week, the 49ers are at home against those same Rams and now there are some injuries in the Rams secondary which he should be able to exploit. For further confirmation of that you need look no further than the past three games in which the Rams’ opponents have thrown for 283 yards per game against them, the seventh highest total in the NFL. While the last time these two teams faced each other the outcome proved to be a close game, I don’t expect that to be the case again. San Francisco is coming off a bye and the Rams are very banged up. Boldin should be a heavily featured in this NFC West rematch and his price tag is just right for a high-upside bargain play.

Projected Stat Line – Seven receptions for 95 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Doug Baldwin – ($6,800) – Doug Baldwin (and the whole Seattle offense, for that matter) just didn’t look all that ready or interested in their game last week. Baldwin did fine but was kept out of the end zone and wasn’t able to do much with the passes he caught. He ended his day with 9.1 points, which brought his price per point to a disappointing $747 dollars – not exactly the kind of performance that’s going to win you many games, especially given the amount of production elsewhere in the league this past week.

Tight End – Travis Kelce – $5,400

Travis Kelce has been a huge help for the Chiefs this season, helping to keep their passing game at the very least respectable. I wouldn’t say defenses fear him exactly, but they must account for Kelce if nothing else with the complete disappearance of Dwayne Bowe this season. This week Kelce and the Chiefs face the New York Jets. Kelce is interesting for all of the reasons I mentioned with Charles, namely the fact Avery is out for this game. However, what’s also interesting is the fact the Jets have given up the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends thus far this season. Meanwhile, Kelce is the Chiefs leading receiver, which is saying something considering he had limited snaps and had to earn his time on the field through many of the early games. Look for Kelce to get a lot of looks as Kansas City will try to move the ball through the air against one of the Jets’ biggest weaknesses.

Projected Stat Line – Four receptions for 52 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Delanie Walker – ($5,600) – Delanie Walker didn’t do a whole lot in the receiving department, registering only four receptions for 37 yards. However, his saving grace last weekend was the fact that he scored one of the Titans two touchdowns. While we didn’t expect a whole lot of action from Walker he did come through and provide us a decent amount of points based on his affordable price tag.

Kicker – Randy Bullock – $4,800

This week, Bullock isn’t the cheapest kicker available, which is usually how I prefer to pick my kicker each week, but he has a nice matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles in which he should have plenty of opportunities to score. The Texans should move the ball ssufficiently to put Bullock in position for a few field goals and they should also score a few times to allow him to get some extra point attempts.

Projected Stat Line – Two field goals, three extra points

Follow-Up – Patrick Murray – ($4,600) – Patrick Murray goy a few scores in his game versus Minnesota last week with two field goals and one extra point, which put him at 10 points on the day. This set his dollars per point at $460 dollars which while not all that great for a skill position, is acceptable for a kicker.

Defense – Seattle Seahawks – $5,500

The Seattle Seahawks defense has one of the better matchups this week as they face a hapless Oakland Raiders offense. Oakland has very little in the way of a rushing game to speak of so Seattle should be able to focus heavily on stopping the pass. With Richard Sherman likely on James Jones for the afternoon, it’s going to fall to Andre Holmes to win the game for them, which just isn’t something I feel he’s prepared to do against a defensive squad like the Seahawks have. Additionally, expect some sack and interceptions on Derek Carr as the rookie gets flustered and confused against one of the best defenses he’s faced in his short NFL career. This is much more than I usually spend on a defense, but with this bye as heavy as it is you need to try to pick up as many sure points as possible, even if you have to pay more for those points.

Projected Stat Line – 10 points against, three sacks and two interceptions

Follow-Up – New York Jets – ($4,500) – Well, nothing about the Jets defense even resembled an NFL squad last weekend. I’m not even a fan of the Jets and I was embarrassed for them. It appeared as if the Buffalo Bills could score at will on them as they hung for passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown on last week. What’s worse is the Jets should have seen it coming, the Bills has just lost their top two running backs, the writing was on the wall, they were going to have to pass! I’ve been shaking my head all week over this one. For supposedly being a defensive minded coach Rex Ryan had an incredible whiff on this game.

George Kritikos will now present his picks and recap for the week in the following section of this article. Good luck George!

Quarterback – Colin Kaepernick – $7,800

This is a great matchup for Kaepernick as the Rams rank second in completion percentage allowed (69.9%) and third in quarterback rating (105.5). Guess which game was Kaepernick’s best of the season so far? That’s right, against the Rams just a few weeks ago; he managed 343 yards and three touchdown passes. I don’t expect a repeat but I expect multiple touchdown passes and a good yardage total with some rushing yards to boot.

Projected Stat Line – 22 completions, 300 yards, two touchdowns, 40 yards rushing

Follow-Up – Carson Palmer ($7,400) – A great value last week and delivered near what I expected last week. He had a little luck with an 80-yard touchdown but you have to take these plays when they come. With 329 yards and two touchdowns, Palmer was the perfect moderately priced quarterback who slightly outperformed expectations.

Running Back – Marshawn Lynch – $8,200

Seattle likely won’t need to score much here to get the win so I expect them to ice the lead with a lot of Lynch. While he hasn’t scored a touchdown in three weeks, Oakland is third in the league in rushing touchdowns allowed with nine in just seven games. This could be the type of week where Beast Mode takes over and I want a piece of it.

Projected Stat Line – 23 rushes, 115 yards, two catches, 20 yards, two touchdowns

Follow-Up – Le’Veon Bell ($8,400) – With nearly 150 total yards (148) including six catches, Bell certainly ate up the yardage. However, as has been the case with him this season, Bell failed to score and ultimately fell short relative to price. Not a bad blunder but you need huge games from players when you pay this price.

Running Back – Jeremy Hill – $5,200 

Even if Giovani Bernard is able to play, Hill is going to be featured, especially if the Bengals pull out to an early lead. Jacksonville is an average run defense but their offense includes a quarterback leading the league in turnovers so good field position will help the Bengals get a few additional scores. Hill has shown versatility in the passing game as well so he is capable of being a three-down back for the Bengals.

Projected Stat Line – 16 rushes, 70 yards, four catches, 30 yards, one touchdown 

Follow-Up – Jerrick McKinnon ($5,800) – Another instance where a player fell just short of expectations. McKinnon did well on the ground (83 rushing yards) but only had one catch and did not score a touchdown. Against a defense as lowly as Tampa Bay, you need to get more.

Wide Receiver –Jeremy Maclin – $8,400 

Operating as the primary option in a high octane offense has given Maclin a lot of targets and deep pass opportunities that help inflate a fantasy score. We saw this last week against an anemic Arizona pass defense and Houston is no different. They are bottom five in yards, touchdowns, and receptions allowed to wide receivers. While his numbers won’t be quite as good as last week, another monster game is not out of the question.

Projected Stat Line – six catches, 105 yards, two touchdowns

Follow-Up – Mike Wallace ($7,500) – Wallace showed consistency with yardage (59 receiving yards) but only had two catches and did not reach the endzone. For this price, you need much more to make it worthwhile and Wallace failed to do so. He came into this game as one of the most consistent receivers so it is disappointing to see that end here.

Wide Receiver – DeAndre Hopkins – $6,900

If I’m taking one side of the Philadelphia-Houston ledger, it only makes sense to hedge my bet on the other. Hopkins is completely healthy while Andre Johnson is battling injury yet again so he should be heavily targeted. With five or more catches in five of the last six weeks, Hopkins is developing a very safe floor. Philadelphia could be the type of opponent that helps him rise above that floor and deliver a strong game for a moderate price.

Projected Stat Line – six catches, 95 yards, one touchdown

Follow-up – Randall Cobb ($8,400) – Taking Cobb for a second week in a row was a great decision as he hit expectations with 126 receiving yards and a touchdown. Jordy Nelson wasn’t so lucky and you always take a gamble with spread offenses like Green Bay, fortunately it paid off.

Wide Receiver – Rueben Randle – $6,400

Sometimes, you choose a player you don’t like at a price you love. That is the case with Randle as he has at least four catches in each of the last six weeks and faces an Indianapolis defense that may be without Vontae Davis. As the new number one receiver, Randle will continue to see ample passes his way and remain the primary red zone option. The Giants will need to score in bunches to keep up with the Colts offense and Rashad Jennings is out yet again, so they will be airborne for this one.

Projected Stat Line – six catches, 85 yards, one touchdown

Follow-Up – Sammy Watkins ($7,300) – What was a great return (157 yards, one touchdown) could have been brilliant if Watkins would have avoided showboating on his way to a touchdown last week. That said, he still earned a profit despite just three catches and Kyle Orton clearly will feed him so I suspect his price rises very soon.

Tight End – Julius Thomas – $7,800

While I normally go cheap at tight end, I like Thomas here for a bounce back game. New England is a middling defense against tight ends but are a terror against wide receivers (league low 74 receptions allowed). My expectation is Peyton Manning will look to Thomas when the team goes to the air and with Tom Brady playing at a high level, the Broncos will need to win this game.

Projected Stat Line – five catches, 70 yards, one touchdown

Follow-Up – Jordan Reed ($5,200) – Reed was targeted plenty and caught seven balls against Dallas. Unfortunately, they were short passes as Colt McCoy was not looking to Reed down the field, causing Reed to end up with only 40 receiving yards. It’s a fine return on the price and I didn’t expect fireworks here so I’ll live with it.

Kicker – Brandon McManus – $4,600

The price was low and McManus should see plenty of opportunities in what is expected to be a high scoring game. While he has only had more than one field goal attempt in a game twice, I suspect the Broncos will take any points they can in this one.

Projected Stat Line – two field goals, four extra points

Follow-Up – Randy Bullock ($4,700) – Three field goals, three extra points. Bullock had his best game of the season and it came at a low price. This is a good haul from any kicker so the fact he was so cheap is icing.

Defense – San Diego – $4,700

San Diego is a safe option this week as they are hard to score against. While they don’t have the big play ability of other teams, I am looking for a safe floor. With nine or more points scored in five of their games, this is how you can afford premium players at other positions.

Projected Stat Line – 17 points allowed, three sacks, one fumble recovery

Follow-Up – Buffalo ($5,300) – The turnover fest in New York led to a great day for the Buffalo defense. Four sacks, four interceptions, and two fumble recoveries offset a decent scoring day for the Jets (23 points) and led to a nice profit on a moderately priced defense.

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