2015 Rookie Mock Draft ADP: A Look at Next Year’s Class

Scott Fish

funchess

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Hey again fellow football fans!

Each year I run rookie mock drafts well in advance of the NFL Draft to get a view on how players are being valued. Normally this means January mocks. This year I have decided to run two or more mocks each month leading up to the NFL Draft. If you would like to be part of one of these mocks, let me know!

October 2015 Rookie Mock 1
October 2015 Rookie Mock 2

These mocks were conducted in the traditional format of your average dynasty league. They were done NFL Draft style where a drafter keeps his or her same draft position in each round. This was done in hopes to give readers a perspective on what might be available to them at his or her projected draft position for 2015. The Average Draft Position (ADP) from these two mocks should help curb a little bit of subjective bias from individual drafters.

Let’s go over the first ten in average draft position from these two mocks.

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Pick Player  Position – School Times Picked
1 Todd Gurley RB – Georgia Picked in 2 mocks
2 Melvin Gordon RB – Wisconsin Picked in 2 mocks
3.5 Devin Funchess WR – Michigan Picked in 2 mocks
3.5 Amari Cooper WR – Alabama Picked in 2 mocks
6 Jaelen Strong WR – ASU Picked in 2 mocks
6.5 Kevin White WR – West Virginia Picked in 2 mocks
8.5 Jay Ajayi RB – Boise State Picked in 2 mocks
9.5 D’haquille Williams WR – Auburn Picked in 2 mocks
10 Mike Davis RB – South Carolina Picked in 2 mocks
10.5 DeVante Parker WR – Louisville Picked in 2 mocks

Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon being selected as the top two picks is a surprise to no one. Gurley’s increased suspension only helps his value. He will have fresher legs, less miles and had nothing left to prove in college anyway. That announcement sent smiles across the developmental dynasty universe and on the faces of owners having a very bad year in dynasty.

Before you question the picking of running backs at the top of a rookie draft next year (or even in the first couple rounds), you need to remember dynasty fantasy football is a cyclical beast. Sure, Bishop Sankey hasn’t worked out, but he wouldn’t even be in the top six or seven of next year’s running back class. If you have been playing for five years, ten years, since 1992 like me or even over 35 years like a few people I have interviewed; you have seen the league change and positions be flooded and go through droughts. The NFL has seen a huge influx of wide receivers in this ever increasing pass heavy league. When you pair that with the amount of wide receiver talent and lack of running back talent that has come out of college in recent years, the running game is bound to see a bump back to the mean here soon. Although the league will remain pass heavy, the quality of running backs entering the league next year is extremely high. Many of their skillsets are suited perfectly to give you points on the ground as well as in the passing game, making them great fantasy assets. I could quite easily make the argument that over half of the NFL could use a solid back to take the reigns of their running game. The Patriots, Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Ravens, Broncos, Chargers, Raiders, Colts, Titans, Jaguars, Panthers, Saints, Falcons, Buccaneers, Lions, Vikings, Seahawks and Rams could all use help or at least bring in a running back that could take over the lead role. You may disagree with a few of those, but the argument can be made.

The next two picks are clear. Nearly everyone in the mocks seemed to agreed that the top four is fairly set right now. Some prefer Devin Funchess, some Amari Cooper. I see this debate being nearly identical to the debate on Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans from last year. I am not comparing the players, just the debate. Evans and Funchess being the higher upside big men with Watkins and Cooper being the more polished and currently more complete normal sized guys. I’m not going to say they are small receivers, because they are not. It’s sexy right now to go after the size, but just ask yourself how Antonio Brown, TY Hilton, Watkins and Randall Cobb are doing right now. It’s about talent. Sometimes that comes in big packages, medium packages or small packages.

Next up are some bigger wide receivers and a couple of running backs. I’ll star with the backs. Jay Ajayi is a dual threat running back for Boise State that has the ability to play three downs and catch four or five balls a game. He is a player I was admittedly too high on last year, drafting him in the first round of devy mocks when others were taking him in the second round. Poor value play on my part. However, now it looks like he has played his way into that draft slot. I can see him taking the lead role on many of the teams listed above. Mike Davis is another three down back who can also catch. He hasn’t been asked to as much as Ajayi, but the ability is there. Although Ajayi went before him in both mocks, many prefer Davis. In full disclosure, my love of Ajayi did not effect either draft. I took Cooper in one and Davis in the other. Both of these backs can carry the rock 20 to 30 times in a game without any difficulty.

Jaelen Strong, Kevin White, D’haquille Williams and DeVante Parker round out the top ten as wide receivers who have only helped their stock this year. Strong has continued on what he was doing, but Kevin White came out of “virtually” nowhere. Yes, many knew him, but he went from being obscure to most to being a player who could easily be in the discussion for the top wide receiver off the board in dynasty rookie drafts next year. I’m very curious to see where he goes in the November mocks. He is a 6’3″ 210 lb. guy that started the season by reeling off seven straight 100 yard games including 10 catches per game and seven touchdowns. Parker had missed the entire season up until the last 2 weeks. These drafts were done prior to his nine catch, 132 yard performance last week and his eight catch, 214 yard effort this week. Williams has outplayed Sammie Coates who many have considered a day two NFL draft pick.

Let’s move on to the next ten.

Pick Player  Position – School Times Picked
11 Dorial Green-Beckham WR – Missouri Picked in 2 mocks
11 TJ Yeldon RB – Alabama Picked in 2 mocks
13.5 Ameer Abdullah RB – Nebraska Picked in 2 mocks
14 Stefon Diggs WR – Maryland Picked in 2 mocks
15 Duke Johnson RB – Miami Picked in 2 mocks
15 Tevin Coleman RB – Indiana Picked in 2 mocks
15.5 Marcus Mariota QB – Oregon Picked in 2 mocks
17 Sammie Coates WR – Auburn Picked in 2 mocks
19 Karlos Williams RB – FSU Picked in 2 mocks
19.5 Nelson Algholor WR – USC Picked in 2 mocks

Now we enter a realm of a few more question marks. Had Karlos Williams come out last year, his stock might have been higher and the running back class was weaker. Now he finds himself dropping in ADP, going in the mid to late second round of rookie mocks. Some still love Dorial Green-Beckham, others have soured. I personally am still very high on him and feel if it wasn’t for off the field issues he would be a mid-first round pick. I love his current value at the end of the first, but understand the risks are greater than those above him. He’s the sexy, upside play. It was clear in drafting that Ameer Abdullah is a player who people just didn’t want to take. Many sites rank him as a top three running back in next year’s draft. Shane Hallam (@ShanePHallam on twitter and owner of DraftTV.com) took him in the first mock almost begrudgingly. I felt the same way when I took him in the second mock and Shane and I discussed how we had similar thoughts on him. I personally feel he runs through the biggest holes of all the backs in this class. I like him more than I liked Lamar Miller who also ran through large holes at Miami (and was generally tackled by the first guy that would slightly brush up against him). Abdullah is more talented than Miller in my opinion, but I just don’t see him as special, much like I felt about Doug Martin at Boise State and Montee Ball at Wisconsin. I didn’t see anything special and that another back in that spot could have done much better. Michael Pichan (@FantasyNomad on twitter and in true nomadic fashion, a free agent fantasy writer) disagreed saying:

Don’t those who have to overcome things like being called too small,  too slow, etc… usually end up having the better career then most of those so called upside guys with all the talent in the world but a shaky character/work ethic? You guys don’t want the next Marshall Faulk, I’ll gladly take him.

I respect Michael, his evaluation skills and opinions. I don’t disagree with this statement. I would not be shocked if Abdullah becomes a great player in the NFL. Players like Montee Ball, I never saw an NFL quality back. In Abdullah, I can see the possibility, I just don’t fully buy in. More than that, I just prefer several other backs in this class. I picked Abdullah with the 16th overall pick in the second mock because I can see the potential. A player like Ball I never drafted once in a rookie draft or mock. I only draft players I actually see the ability in.

Spending all of this time talking about Abdullah forces me to gloss over the rest. I wrote a sleeper article last year highlighting Tevin Coleman and he has only improved. With the right landing spot, he could be a nice get in rookie drafts. TJ Yeldon was heralded as the next big thing at one point. You may or may not remember, but he was a top three devy pick coming out of high school. He was even talked about alongside Gurley after their freshman years despite significantly less use. The injury to Kenyan Drake has given him the opportunity to really shine in that backfield with Derrick Henry. Of course Marcus Mariota falls into the second round given the late round quarterback feelings around the fantasy world, but his upside and running ability become too much to pass up here. I think the biggest upside play at running back in this grouping is Duke Johnson. If you play in a devy league with me, I own him and I’m not trading him. He is a threat on every touch and will likely enter the NFL right between Barry Sanders size 5’8″ 203 lbs. and Emmitt Smith 5’9″ 213lbs. See what I did there? All joking aside, when healthy Johnson has the ability to make things happen and has special traits. I love his value in the early second round. If you have a horrible running back situation, you can get Gurley and Johnson in the first two rounds of your rookie draft and really turn around your team.

Pick Player  Position – School Times Picked
21.5 Javorius Allen RB – USC Picked in 2 mocks
23.5 Ty Montgomery WR – Stanford Picked in 2 mocks
24.5 Quinshad Davis WR – North Carolina Picked in 2 mocks
25 Shock Linwood RB – Baylor Picked in 2 mocks
25.5 Jameis Winston QB – FSU Picked in 2 mocks
26 Rashad Greene WR – FSU Picked in 2 mocks
27 Josh Robinson RB – Mississippi State Picked in 2 mocks
27 Devon Cajuste WR – Stanford Picked in 1 mock
31 Jonathan Williams RB – Arkansas Picked in 2 mocks
31 Byron Marshall RB – Oregon Picked in 1 mock

Then next ten start with a player who was also featured in that sleeper article from last year, Javorius Allen, a bruising three down pass catching back for USC. I love Allen and feel like he is one of those players who may or may not have his value destroyed by the time rookie drafts come around. In the January 2012 Rookie Expert Mock I was in, I took Christine Michael in the fourth round and I considered him in both the second and third but knew I could wait. I can see this happening to Allen. The hype might start to roll and his mid-third ADP will disappear. Ty Montgomery finally goes in the earlyto mid-twenties. Many draftniks have him as a day two NFL Draftee. If he gets the right landing spot, he could be a nice asset especially in return yardage leagues. I think his combine measurables may really effect his rookie value for many dynasty league owners. Rashad Greene has done nothing but be a great wide receiver at Florida State for nine years now. OK, maybe it hasn’t been nine years, but it feels like it. As DLF’s own Russell Clay so aptly put it upon selecting Greene: “you could see him and his future QB becoming best friends.” I’ll pass over the fall of Byron Marshall and talk for a moment about Devon Cajuste, drafted in the third round by Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL of UTHDynasty.com). I admittedly didn’t expect this pick, but I get it. He’s the 6’4″ 228 lb. teammate of  Montgomery at Stanford. Much Like Martavis Bryant to Watkins, Cajuste doesn’t have the stats of Montgomery, but makes plays. He is a sneaky player to keep an eye on. That size will probably draw dynasty eyes. I’ll also note here that a few people didn’t realize that Shock Linwood is draft eligible. He is a redshirt sophomore this year.

The rest:

Pick Player  Position – School Times Picked
31.5 Leonte Carroo WR – Rutgers Picked in 2 mocks
32 Austin Hill WR – Arizona Picked in 2 mocks
32 Antwan Goodley WR – Baylor Picked in 1 mock
32.5 Tyreek Hill RB – Oklahoma State Picked in 2 mocks
33 Jesse James TE – Penn State Picked in 1 mock
33.5 Jeremy Langford RB – Michigan St. Picked in 2 mocks
34 Keith Marshall RB – Georgia Picked in 1 mock
34.5 David Cobb RB – Minnesota Picked in 2 mocks
35 David Johnson RB – Northern Iowa Picked in 2 mocks
36.5 Deontay Greenberry WR – Houston Picked in 2 mocks
37 Kenyan Drake RB – Alabama Picked in 1 mock
38 Travis Greene RB – Bowling Greene Picked in 1 mock
39 Darren Waller WR – Georgia Tech Picked in 1 mock
41 Dak Prescott QB – Mississippi State Picked in 1 mock
42 Malcolm Brown RB – Texas Picked in 1 mock
45 Brett Hundley QB – UCLA Picked in 1 mock
46 Tyler Kroft TE – Rutgers Picked in 1 mock
47 Shaq Roland WR – South Carolina Picked in 1 mock
48 Tony Lippett WR – Michigan St. Picked in 1 mock

Once again, we see quarterbacks go really late. I might have to do a 2-quarterback and/or superflex mock to get some value for that. Some picks at the end of these drafts interest me. One being Austin Hill, a 6’3″ 215 lb. wide receiver for Arizona who was just lights out last year. Every year we see players like Donte Moncrief, Alshon Jeffery and others who have a poor final year of college and still bring value to the NFL. Of course Moncrief and Jeffery were considered by many to be top three wide receivers in their class before their poor final year, but this kind of thing does happen. I think Keith Marshall and Kenyan Drake are nice sleeper picks. I personally believe they both stay in school, but both had enormous perceived talent, had injuries sideline them and were overshadowed by top players in Todd Gurley, TJ Yeldon and Derrick Henry. Admittedly, David Johnson of Northern Iowa wasn’t really on my radar in this four round mock. He’s a 6’3″ 225 lb. running back who has averaged over 30 catches per year in college. It’s hard not to like a big bruiser who can catch like that. Lastly, I’ll mention Tyreek Hill of Oklahoma State. Who knows what position he will play in the NFL, but he is your smaller sized pass catcher who runs the ball well. He might be a gadget player in the NFL, but those can be fun pieces in PPR leagues.

I would like to thank the many people that helped in these mocks. Thanks to Nathan Powell from DynastyFootballWarehouse.com, Shane Hallam from DraftTV.com, Chad Parsons and Doug Veatch from UTHDynasty.com, Michael Pichan (The Fantasy Nomad), Clint Ward, Mike Beckley, Matt Andrews, Brett Romano and Jonathan Smith. I guess I should also thank the many DLF Team members that mocked as well: Ryan McDowell, Rob Leath, TheFFGhost, Russell Clay, George Kritikos, Jeff Beran, Brian Bulmer and Nick Whalen.

The November mocks are set to start Monday. You can follow along using the links below.

November 2015 Rookie Mock 1
November 2015 Rookie Mock 2

If you would like to participate in any upcoming 2015 Rookie Mocks, please let me know and I will put you on the list and get you in one when I can. If you have interest in a specific type of mock, like two quarterback or Superflex, let me know as I will also try to make on of those happen.

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scott fish