The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

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Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1. In my 16-team PPR dynasty league my starting quarterback is on a bye and I don’t have a backup. I’d claim one on waivers but all of the starting options are already on rosters. I was offered Geno Smith and Cordarrelle Patterson for Mike Wallace and Davante Adams. What do you think of the offer?Dylan in PA

As quite possibly his biggest apologist it pains me to say this, but the leagues where quarterback Geno Smith can actually be considered a valuable asset are few and far between.  One such exception, however, is the 16-teamer described in the question above.  In these types of formats, the quarterback position turns from one of relatively little value to a focus of championship teams.

As such, Smith and his 13.6 fantasy points per game (15.9 if you subtract a wretched week five tilt with the Chargers) represent a vital failsafe against bye weeks and potential injuries to your starter.  Given the recent acquisition of receiver Percy Harvin, it’s also fair to wonder if his stats are set for an uptick.  Given the totality of the situation, Smith turns from a throw-in to an important part of the deal.

The other piece you’d receive, Vikings pass catcher Cordarrelle Patterson, is arguably the most important part of the deal.  Though his production hasn’t come anywhere close to catching up to his value (he was the WR9 according to our mid-season mock draft), CP is clearly still regarded as one of the top young assets in the game.  Even if you’re not a believer in his ability, you’d undoubtedly be able to flip him after the fact.

Even given that, I think I’d stand pat.  Smith, while still a solid stash in my (totally biased) opinion, is only going to start for you one week out of the year if all goes according to script.  Patterson, though valuable, isn’t putting up the stats of Miami’s Mike Wallace, and even Packers’ rookie Davante Adams has made up ground as a promising stash.  If not having a quarterback for one week causes a loss, so be it – it’s simply not a compelling enough trade to temporarily cover your bases.

2. I own Branden Oliver in a 12-team PPR league, however I’m currently sitting at 1-5. I’ve been getting a lot of inquiries for him, and was curious if you think he’s someone worth holding onto for the future? If not, what value do you feel I should get in return?Drew in IL

Since taking over the backfield for good against the Jets, San Diego running back Branden Oliver has been a revelation.  During that time he’s rushed 60 times for 282 yards (4.7 YPC), while also chipping in 10 receptions for 102 yards and three overall scores.  On average, these statistics have culminated in a weekly fantasy stat-line of 22.1 PPR points.

[inlinead]This has turned Oliver from a relative unknown into a weekly game-changer.  Despite only having four games with at least 13 total touches, and only appearing in five games overall, Oliver quietly resides as the PPR RB19, as well as the RB11 in terms of points per game.  While I’m not suggesting you’re going to receive a return commensurate with those statistics, it goes to show Oliver has as much promise as the majority of the dynasty running backs.

The one glaring pockmark on Oliver’s value is the impending return of erstwhile starter Ryan Mathews.  Though Mathews’ early-season statistics were far from spectacular (3.1 YPC), he also had the misfortune of playing against the stout run defenses of Arizona and Seattle.  Nevertheless, he has proven an ability to shoulder the load, functioning as a true every-down back.

The silver lining to the above, however, is Mathews’ contract situation which currently dictates he’ll be playing ball elsewhere come 2015.  As you’re already a long shot for the playoffs, that’s the most important variable in the equation.  Even if Mathews returns to siphon touches from Oliver, the Bolts are unlikely to pay top dollar to him with Oliver (and the returning Danny Woodhead) under contract – this could and should render Oliver as the unquestioned lead dog in the future.  Given that, I’d just stand pat unless someone gives you a Godfather offer, such as a project early first – you’ve already got a lottery ticket with known value anyhow.

3. I’m looking to add a second option to my running back barn in my 14-team half-PPR league. I have Giovani Bernard, Jeremy Hill, Trent Richardson, Darren McFadden, Darren Sproles and Storm Johnson. A team in rebuilding has Arian Foster (one-year of contract remaining) on the trading block. Am I overvaluing Foster if I trade away my first round pick in next year’s rookie draft? I also just picked up Philip Rivers and this is his last year of his contract, so should I proceed knowing I only get to pick Rivers or Foster to franchise next year?Ryan in TX

Despite a hot start to the season, Texans running back Arian Foster remains one of dynasty’s bigger lightning rods.  His year thus far has effectively represented a sandwich, with two pieces of statistically tasty bread surrounding a duet of hamstring-hindered contests.  Ever an injury risk, this roller coaster season begs the question as to which is the Foster we’ll see for the remainder of 2014.

One interesting hint has been the quality of Foster’s opponents thus far.  In games where he averaged at least 4.0 YPC he faced Oakland (4.0 YPC against – t-12th), Indy (4.6 YPC against – t-25th) and Dallas (4.9 YPC against – t-29th).  When he faced tougher competition (Washington, 3.8 YPC against – t-8th and Buffalo, 3.2 YPC against, t-1st) the numbers looked dramatically different, as Foster averaged only 3.1 YPC – his passing game usage (3.2 receptions per game) will always elevate his floor, but it’s fair to wonder what will happen if Houston faces stiffer competition.

Throwing in the injury risk and I’d be loathe to trade a first round pick for the Texans ball carrier, but I also recognize I likely represent the minority in this instance.  If you believe Foster will push you over the top and your first rounder will be late, it’s certainly worth consideration.  Fortune favors the bold, and if Foster stays healthy he could prove you with a true RB1.

Finally, I wouldn’t worry about Chargers signal caller Philip Rivers as it relates to your decision.  14-team leagues effectively represent the point where quarterbacks begin to gain value, but not to the point where a second-tier player would make or break my decision making process.  It’s a problem I’d simply worry about when you get there.

4. We just started our dynasty league this summer, and I didn’t quite draft good enough a team to compete. I did acquire AJ Green and Jimmy Graham, so I flipped them to get some more young depth (Graham for Michael Floyd and two mid first round picks, and Green, Ka’Deem Carey and Derek Carr for Randall Cobb and Le’Veon Bell). I also got Andre Ellington from Nick Foles and Tyler Eifert). I was hoping to hear your thoughts on my trades, as my strategy is to get some nice picks and keep my team super young.Kyle in MS

Given the recent injuries suffered by Saints tight end Jimmy Graham and Bengals receiver AJ Green, it’s not terribly surprising to see how your team could’ve been suffering.  With that said, dynasty football is a marathon, not a sprint, so I’m surprised you gave up on them so early in the game, even given your team’s record.  Switching fields once again though, you certainly received good return upon your investments.

Graham is widely considered as dynasty’s top tight end, as well as a first round pick in startup drafts.  Cardinals receiver Michael Floyd isn’t too far behind, routinely being selected as a WR1.  The two first round picks you received on top are easily enough to bridge the gap.

The Green trade is a bit more dicey, as his place as one of dynasty’s top receivers remains secure.  Le’Veon Bell has been one of the season’s biggest risers and Randall Cobb has continued to show well in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense, but there are warning signs with this deal.  Bell plays in a relatively devalued position and has only produced a small sample size of elite play, while Cobb could very well leave Wisconsin at the conclusion of the season – on the surface the value is fair, but I’d be more skittish about this deal.

As for acquiring Cardinals running back Andre Ellington for the combination of Nick Foles and Tyler Eifert, little more needs to be said.  Simply put, you made like Macklemore and produced “The Heist.”  Ellington is an ascending RB1, while Foles is a replaceable quarterback and Eifert remains more project than substance.

On the whole, if your vision was to get younger while also stockpiling future picks, you’re well on your way there.  Losing the most valuable assets on your team certainly hurts, but you did well with regards to who you received in return.  If you make good picks and these juvenile assets continue to age gracefully like a fine wine, you won’t have to worry about being in this scenario again for a very long time.

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eric hardter