Twitter Observations: Week Seven
Each week I will be walking through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis.
Travis Kelce, TE KC
Travis Kelce scored in three straight games before the Chiefs’ week six bye. In two of those weeks though he caught three and two passes for 36 and 15 yards respectively. Without the touchdowns he would have been a major letdown. As the perceived best receiving option for Kansas City his upside seemed very high the remainder of the season and the foreseeable future. Unfortunately fantasy owners and NFL coaching staffs do not always see eye to eye. As John Paulsen noted,
Travis Kelce only saw four targets (4-33). This is befuddling given the team’s receiving personnel. He played 53% of the snaps.
— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) October 20, 2014
Pat Thorman also mentioned the low snap count with the additional caveat that Andy Reid is unlikely to change his formula for success.
Kelce got his increasingly common 40 snaps (53.3%), 22 routes… and one win – which won’t teach Andy Reid to play him more. — Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) October 20, 2014
While Kelce ranks anywhere between 10th to 16th overall in targets, receptions and yards amongst tight ends, he also ranks outside the top 40 in regards to total snaps. After six weeks it is hard to believe we will see Kelce’s usage jump dramatically. The Chiefs have played well enough to win or keep games close as well so hoping for more opportunities in late game situations is also unlikely. Kelce remains a low end TE1 for this season and the future until his involvement in the offense jumps.
Jason Witten, TE DAL
Unlike Kelce, Jason Witten is nearing the end of his career, or at least his fantasy relevant career. To date he is fighting to simply stay a TE2 in most leagues. At the age of 32, Witten also appears to be slowing down considerably as Alessandro Miglio tweeted,
Jason Witten looks like he’s speed-walking when he runs.
— Alessandro Miglio (@AlexMiglio) October 19, 2014
In week 6 fantasy owners watched Gavin “Who Is That Guy?” Escobar record one catch albeit for a touchdown. He followed up that performance in week 7 with three catches and two touchdowns as Denny Carter so aptly captured the emotions of Witten owners everywhere,
Witten owners, probably. pic.twitter.com/kceeLVu9IA — C.D. Carter (@CDCarter13) October 19, 2014
Escobar still only saw the field in week 7 for 26 total snaps compared to Jason’s 63 but saw more targets and yards for the first time this season. The final nail in the fantasy coffin for Witten is that the Cowboys’ run control offense is leaving fewer opportunities for the passing game. The days of Witten being an every year staple at the top of the tight ranks are over and appears to no longer be the best fantasy tight end on his own team.
Ronnie Hillman, RB DEN
Coming into the season many expected Montee Ball to be an every week fantasy starter. The presence of Peyton Manning alone normally made even the most average of runners perform at a higher level. Before getting injured, Ball could only muster 3.1 yards per carry and found the end zone one time. In Ball’s absence, Ronnie Hillman has averaged 4.8 yards per carry against two of the tougher run defenses in the league. He also capped off his week seven performance by scoring twice. Ball is expected to miss at least one more week and the question everyone is asking is what will the backfield rotation look like when he returns. Adam Harstad likely echoed the sentiments of most tweeting,
Hillman has now had the best two games by a Broncos RB this year. Not by stats, but by quality of play. Deserves the job going forward.
— Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad) October 20, 2014
The stats would appear to favor Hillman retaining the starting gig, but as we have seen too often coaching staffs in the NFL make curious decisions. The most likely scenario to play out will be some version of the dreaded time share leaving fantasy owners of both players wary of starting either on a given week. Looking down the road as well, Ball still has two years remaining on his rookie deal while Hillman is under contract through 2015. Montee still has the most fantasy value of the two, but at this point I find it difficult to believe he can retain his top 20 running back status.
Julio Jones, WR ATL
Through the first three weeks, Julio Jones was the #1 WR. He has been the #27 WR over the last four weeks. — John Paulsen (@4for4_John) October 20, 2014
Coming into the season I had Julio has my number two wide receiver in both standard and dynasty leagues. The Falcons projected to be one of the pass heaviest offenses and all signs pointed to a healthy Julio Jones. Jones was on an absolute tear but the wheels have quickly fallen off the Atlanta offense as Evan Silva pointed out,
#Falcons have gone from dumpster fire on D to dumpster fire on D & O. Inability to pass protect makes O condensed/limited. Get Lions D next.
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) October 20, 2014
Through seven weeks of the season Atlanta has lost four offensive lineman to season ending injuries. Matt Ryan is under way too much pressure for the offense to develop any sort of rhythm and there is no quick solution or turnaround to the problem. The remainder of 2014 will likely continue to see Julio struggle to maintain weekly WR2 status. Jones is only 25 and has plenty of good years ahead of him, but the emergence of so many young receivers this season will continue to lessen his elite status.
Percy Harvin, WR NYJ
Two weeks ago in this article I highlighted the struggles then Seahawks receiver Percy Harvin was going through. His yardage and targets were decreasing weekly and he was playing considerably less snaps than a guy making 1/64th his salary. A sudden trade to the New York Jets left many owners wondering what to make of Harvin’s fantasy value. DLF’s Ty Miller provided a more in-depth look for all parties involved and overall it really could not get any worse. The main problem I find, particularly for this season is that Harvin will be learning a new system and likely continue to be a gimmick guy rather than an every down player. Your best bet is to quote the stat below from Chase Stuart to potential buyers and get what you can.
Reminder: In Percy Harvin’s last 16 healthy games with the Vikings, he gained 1,532 yards and scored 11 offensive TDs http://t.co/u1pS2jq6qw — Football Perspective (@fbgchase) October 20, 2014
Sammy Watkins, WR BUF
To quote the legendary Ron Burgundy, “Boy, that escalated quickly.” Two weeks ago in this article I commented to, “Look for Orton to make Watkins’ fantasy floor higher by feeding him the ball and letting the talented rookie make plays and rack up yards.” Besides being trapped on Revis Island (yes that is still a thing) for one week we have seen that and more. The difference between quaterbacks EJ Manuel and Kyle Orton are pretty telling as Rich Hribar pointed out,
Sammy Watkins 16 game pace with EJ: 68-788-8. With Orton: 96-1259-11.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) October 20, 2014
There were even some shout outs for my home site from Josh Moore,
Sammy Watkins coming out party. Thank you Kyle Orton, and thanks to @DLFootball for consistently sticking w/him at #1. — Josh Moore (@4for4_Josh) October 19, 2014
Orton is not the long term solution in Buffalo, but Watkins appears to be the world class talent many that placed him as the number one rookie in the class of 2014 saw. Now with their top two running backs lost for the season, look for Watkins to get fed even more as the Bills may struggle to move the chains. If you own Watkins, congrats as you have a top fantasy receiver for years to come.
As always special thanks to Pro Football Focus’ Premium Stats.
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Luke practically owns the Twitter machine at @FFGator
- Weekly Twitter Observations - April 2, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 26, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 11, 2016
