Dynasty Stock Market: The Trading Post
In Monday’s edition of the DLF Newsletter, I shared some recent dynasty trades. These were actual trades that were agreed upon in actual leagues. My reasons for sharing these were twofold. First, researching and monitoring trades that are being made in active dynasty leagues helps dynasty owners gauge a player’s value. The mock drafts we host and the ADP data produced from those drafts can also do this, but dynasty trades are made every day, offering a more updated picture of a player’s value. Also, seeing a completed dynasty trade can provide an idea or a template for you to try a similar deal. Of course, just because a trade is made in one league doesn’t mean it would work in another, but it does give you a starting point. By the way, if you missed Monday’s Newsletter, subscribe here and never miss another!
I was fortunate enough to receive some very kind feedback on the reported trades and the general consensus was more, more, more! I’ll do just that. I hope to begin a new weekly article here at DLF focusing on reporting recently completed dynasty trades, including my analysis of the deals. I’ll choose ten trades each week that are relevant to the most recent happenings around the league. Here we go!
Indulge me as I start with a pair of deals from my own leagues. Following the injury to Victor Cruz Sunday night, one member of my HyperActive leagues made him available with an asking price of a third round pick. With my injured reserve spot open, I quickly made the offer. In another league, the same owner dealt Cruz for Saints’ wide receiver Kenny Stills. You can expect the price for Cruz to nearly bottom out after his serious injury last week, which will keep him out for the remainder of the season and beyond. If you’re like me and have not made use of your injured reserve spot yet, I suggest making a play for him at his reduced cost.
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While this appears to be a minor deal, it’s a move I really like. Here, Willy takes advantage of the roster makeup and dealt the handcuff, Ka’Deem Carey, for a similarly valued player, Tre Mason. Mason finally saw some action in Week Six and has the clearer path to playing time of the two rookies. Mason was also valued over Carey in most rookie drafts as well. As you look over your rosters, look for opportunities like this one, selling a handcuff for a premium price.
Nathan’s pair of deals are a good reminder of the time of year it is. With the fantasy regular season about halfway over, all dynasty owners must decide if they are contenders or builders. Contenders should be looking to buy players who could help them make a push for a title, as Nathan did with Frank Gore and Andre Johnson. On the other hand, if this is not your year, waste no time in acquiring additional draft picks and young players who can help you down the road.
The value of quarterbacks has been a hot topic over the past two years. With the “late round quarterback” strategy becoming commonplace, the draft and trade value of all quarterbacks have suffered. As it stands now, Colts’ quarterback Andrew Luck is the top dynasty quarterback and brings a huge return in this deal in the form of Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin and Ben Roethlisberger. While the rest of this team is unknown, slotting Roethlisberger in as the starting quarterback is offset by adding two long-term starting wide receivers. I place a very high value on Luck, but this would be more than enough for me to move him.
There is a lot going on with this deal I want you to notice. First, Justin notes that he is punting in year one. If you’ve read my Dynasty Blueprint series, you know I am in favor of what I call the Productive Struggle in year one of a dynasty league, so I already like his thinking here. Considering Justin is also moving a running back, I like the move even more, as I prefer to build around wide receivers. Regardless of the information noted, I love the deal on face value. I don’t think Ben Tate is worth a first round pick, and Justin gets some added pieces on top of the pick. Finally, it’s revealed that the picks actually represent scaled amounts of money, which will be used in the rookie auction next spring. Leagues using this scaled rookie auction format are growing and becoming more popular. I am in a few of them and have found that the overall value of picks is even greater than typical leagues. This makes the trade even more of a win for Justin.
The value of Josh Gordon has been a hot topic in dynasty circles for over a year now. At first, it was due to his meteoric rise a year ago when he turned the Big Five into the Big Six. As we know, his fall from grace was nearly as speedy after his suspension and subsequent DUI arrest. Gordon’s value plummeted before we finally got some good news with the new substance abuse policy, which allowed Gordon and others back on the field before we expected them. Gordon’s 2014 season debut is nearing and the closer we get, the higher his price will go.
This trade illustrates a couple of points of importance for dynasty players. First, thanks to his breakout season, the value of wide receiver Brian Quick is on the rise, maybe more than any other player in the league. Conversely, second year man Keenan Allen has failed to match his rookie campaign despite the huge season enjoyed by Chargers’ quarterback Philip Rivers so far this year. That has to be a concern for Allen owners and here we see an example of his lowered price tag. With players like Quick and Allen, whose price is changing, based on the first few games of the season, dynasty owners must make the decision if they believe the hype and if they want to buy low. These can be make or break decisions, not only for the remainder of this season, but years to come. Personally, I’m a believer in Quick, which is a huge change of opinion, considering I’ve never been a supporter even during his rookie season. Regarding Allen, I am somewhat worried, though I also expect him to turn things around and remain a valuable dynasty asset. In short, we may have set our expectations too high for Allen.
In last week’s debut of Five Burning Questions, Jeff Miller suggested selling Vikings’ running back Matt Asiata, especially if your team is not a contender. We saw some reasons why that suggestion was made in Week Six as rookie Jerick McKinnon out touched and outplayed Asiata in what can be viewed as a sign of things to come. Asiata is an average talent who was thrust into a perfect spot following the suspension of former starter Adrian Peterson. In this deal, Phil flips Asiata along with a late round rookie pick for receiver Larry Fitzgerald. While the Cardinals’ offense has struggled of late, we saw what it can be with a healthy Carson Palmer and even at his age, Fitzgerald is an excellent return for a middling talent like Asiata.
When players like this seem to come “out of nowhere” it’s crucial that dynasty owners make a quick decision if they are for real and can make a lasting impact, or if they are simply a flash in the pan which should be quickly peddled for the best offer.
While it’s unclear if Ryan completed this trade, the fact that it was being considered is noteworthy. The fall of running back Adrian Peterson has been endlessly discussed, though the affect on his dynasty value remains a mystery. Some have already dropped Peterson, while others still value him based on the expectation that he returns to the field and is back to form. I think the odds are against that, considering his age and the unknown legal status. The demise of CJ Spiller is almost as strange. Once viewed as one of the most electric playmakers in the game who just needed more touches to have an impact, Spiller continues to be outplayed by veteran Fred Jackson. With the value of the two running backs clearly deflated, let’s turn our attention to the other side of the agreement. The rookie class of 2015 looks to be a deep one, just as this past season was, so even second round picks will have nice value. Some DLFers are currently participating in a 2015 rookie mock draft and the early second round could earn a team a player like a top prospect like DeVante Parker, Marcus Mariota or Duke Johnson. This may seem crazy, but I think I’d take the pick in this deal, showing it’s important dynasty owners not get caught up in name value, but instead recognize the current value based on their play on the field and realistic expectations.
Thanks to his injury troubles, the dynasty value of Calvin Johnson is in flux, as evidenced by this trade. Don’t get me wrong, being on the receiving end of running back Le’Veon Bell is not a bad thing, just a few weeks ago, Johnson would’ve brought this type of return on his own. Now, the owner had to include other valuable pieces like Percy Harvin and Rashad Jennings. Johnson is one of the most talented and dominant players we’ve seen in years and while the past few weeks have been frustrating, it’s not a wise choice to sell low at this point. If I’m dealing Johnson, I’m looking for a group of players including at least one second tier young wide receiver.
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