Dynasty Mythbusters: The Offense of the Jets
Another week is now in the rear view mirror and the injuries to fantasy starters continue to pile up. When you add in aging veterans who are in rapid decline there is opportunity for a lot of young players to step on up to the plate and show what they are made of. Some of them look like the stars of tomorrow, but we know from the past that most of them are just a flash in the pan. Of course the tricky part is figuring out who are those special exceptions. That is where I come in. For those of you unfamiliar with the Dynasty Mythbusters series, the goal of the article is to analyze certain trends, potential breakouts or just downright bad play in an attempt to predict what we can expect in the future.
Am I always right? Definitely not. But I did suggest that you sell, sell, sell on Trent Richardson very early in the season last year (before it was a trendy thing to say!), ignore the week one “breakouts” of Jerome Simpson and Leonard Hankerson just to name a few.
The fantasy community as a whole tends to have a very strong tendency to overreact to small sample sizes. This is especially true when it comes to early season production. After all, it is only natural after months and months of buildup, thinking your team is great, to get disappointed when your stud disappoints. Don’t go trading them for pennies on the dollar. They will be back. It works in the opposite direction as well. We all like the feeling of grabbing that virtual unknown and watching them turn into the next Jimmy Graham. The problem is the vast majority of the time they don’t pan out and trading your first round pick or an every week starter away for him would be a major mistake.
Through this series, I’ll do my best to focus on guys who are likely to be talked up as potential waiver additions or who are end of the bench guys on most rosters who you might be able to snag with a reasonable trade offer.
This week I’m going to break from my traditional format and look at some struggles to see if there is some light at the end of the tunnel or if the current trend will continue. Normally I try to focus on a player, but since things have been so bad across the board, I’m going to make an exception. Sorry Jets fans, but your offense is very suspect so I’m going to try and take a look at all of the big players.
The Running Game
During their week six game against the Broncos, the trio of Jets running backs managed only 13 carries for a combined 20 yards. That’s getting into the territory where we need to start measuring production in feet per carry for it to look respectable. Yes, they were going against a very stout run defense, but when your starting quarterback is averaging less than 190 passing yards per game you need more than that from your running game.
Given the ineptitude from their starting quarterback, it if fair to wonder how much of the lack of production can be blamed on the Jets running backs. After all, they are facing a stacked box more often than the vast majority of teams in the league. They also have one of the worst run blocking offensive lines in the league. While their center, Nick Mangold, is one of the best in the game, the rest of their offensive line is made up of players who might be better cast as matadors when it comes to run blocking. Three of the four are in the bottom 10 at their position according to profootball focus with the fourth still in the bottom half. Some of the poor performance of the line can likely be blamed on the increased number of defenders near the line, but that isn’t going to account for all of it. Outside of Mangold, it is a terrible run blocking line, but he brings the average of the line up to keep them out of the bottom five units.
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Let’s take a look at the individuals to see if there is a pulse for any of them.
| Player | Rushing Attempts | Rushing Yards | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Touchdonws |
| Chris Ivory | 67 | 325 | 8 | 85 | 2 |
| Chris Johnson | 51 | 200 | 10 | 40 | 2 |
| Bilal Powell | 11 | 43 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
At first glance, Ivory looks to be the clear leader in terms of production. His yards per carry is a very healthy 4.85 though his 12.5 touches per game are definitely lower than his owners hope. If you look a little bit deeper the disparity between him and the others isn’t so clear. Ivory has only one rush over 20 yards on the season, and it was a big one! He had a 71 yard touchdown during week 1. If you view the play as an outlier and remove it, his yards per carry fall to 3.85, which puts him last of the trio since Johnson and Powell have 3.92 and 3.91 respectively. Of course neither Johnson nor Powell have really done much of anything to set themselves apart from the group either in terms of production. All three have had very similar production running the ball with their given opportunities.
When it comes to usage, it has been more of a three headed monster than most people realize. Powell is the best pass blocker of the bunch and it has earned him 23.2 percent of the snaps. Johnson, in his change of pace role, has been on the field for 35.2 percent of the snaps while Ivory is the “starter” with 41.6 percent of the snaps. What it means is that none of them are seeing enough playing time to be a worthwhile asset given their current rates of production.
Is there much of a chance for a silver lining? Unless the passing game can pick up their efforts to get fewer defenders out of the box, I don’t see much changing this year. If Ivory suffers yet another injury, Johnson’s snaps would increase and he could be a back end RB2 or flex option. Short of that, I don’t see much hope for any of them being startable in anything outside of an emergency. If you can get decent value, move them while you can. Looking down the road, rebuilding the offensive line needs to be a priority, but there are so many holes on the entire roster that it will be a very slow process.
The Passing Game
As I mentioned earlier, Geno Smith is averaging under 190 passing yards per game this season. To put it into perspective in regards to just how terrible that is, it is 32nd in the NFL. It is also only 57 percent of what Andrew Luck is averaging per game this season. No matter how you slice it, Smith just hasn’t been a good quarterback in real life or in fantasy leagues. As I mentioned earlier, the lack of production in the running game is unlikely to improve unless the passing games picks up to force defenses to be a little more honest. Is it fair to place all of the blame on Smith or are there other factors at work here?
Much like the running game, let’s start with a look at the big boys up front. Mangold is once again the leader of the pack and one of the best centers in the game for pass blocking as well. The rest of the line hasn’t fared nearly as well according to profootball focus’s stats. At guard, they have one who is slightly above average in pass blocking, Willie Colon, while the other one, Brian Winters, is one of the worst in the league. At the tackle position both are in the middle of the pack with one slightly above average while the other is slightly below average protecting the passer. As a unit, thanks once again to Mangold’s performances, they are a very average group. While they aren’t helping Smith a ton, they aren’t the source of his struggles.
If the offensive line isn’t to blame, how about the weapons at Smith’s disposal? Can they possibly get him off the hook? I’ll give that question a resounding maybe as an answer. Eric Decker is the leading receiver in the box score with 20 receptions for 258 yards and three touchdowns. That is a very underwhelming statline for your top receiver, but he did miss some time due to injury. When Decker has been healthy and on the field, he’s been a starter worthy option in fantasy leagues and should continue to be a WR2/WR3 depending on the matchup. The issues are with the rest of the receiver group. Jeremy Kerley, David Nelson, and Greg Salas are all replacement level players. None of them should be starting for an NFL or fantasy team and with the exception of Kerley, none of them should even be seeing the field during game days. The lack of weapons at the position outside of Decker is staggering and isn’t going to change very quickly.
The only silver lining in the weapons department is Jace Amaro. Rookie tight ends normally take some time to develop and we saw a lot of struggles from Amaro early on. He seems to be breaking out of those struggles now though and has definitely come on recently. He heads into week 7 leading the team in receptions with 24 and trailing only Decker in the yards department with 212. While they aren’t massive numbers, they hint at the promise Amaro has going forward. For a large part of the pre-draft process he was neck and neck with Eric Ebron for the top tight end. He has the talent to be the second target on his team for the rest of this year and going forward.
Final Verdict
I hate to confirm what most Jets fans already suspect, short of Decker and Amaro there isn’t much hope here. The issues for the Jets run much deeper than just poor performance. It comes down to a massive lack of talent on the offensive side of the ball. Could Smith be a solid starting quarterback if he had the right weapons around him? I think he could probably be an average starter. The problem is they need a massive infusion of talent and that takes time. Smith isn’t going to be given that much time to turn things around.
If you can get something worthwhile for any of the Jets not named Decker or Amaro, I would be taking it. They all seem to be roster cloggers who are unlike to produce with the only potential exception being Johnson if Ivory goes down with an injury. It is time to fold up shop on the Jets and hope they spend a lot of picks on the offensive side of the ball in the next few draft classes.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
