Tuesday Transactions: Week Six
Dynasty football is undoubtedly a marathon, not a sprint. With that said, in-season roster management is still every bit as critical as in a standard re-draft format, and arguably even more so given the potential long-term ramifications. As such, this weekly piece is here to provide you with a dozen moves it might just behoove you to make.
Continuing, these transactions will be broken down into four categories: players you should buy low, sell high, buy high and sell low. The first two are self explanatory and follow the typical stock market analogy, which is that you should pounce when the market fluctuates in your favor – if you can get the most bang for your buck or scoop up the metaphorical penny stocks who have room to grow, it could be in your best interest to do so. Conversely, the latter two categories represent a contradictory stance, and some might even consider them “desperation” moves – however, it’s my belief that buying high beats buying higher, and selling low is preferable to selling even lower.
Before I dispense my advice though, I want to provide one final disclaimer – these opinions are my own. If you’re higher or lower on any of the players mentioned below you should absolutely stick to your guns. With that said, I believe there’s also enough of a sample size thus far in the season where we can begin to diverge from our off-season assessments.
In the interest of transparency, here were my week five suggestions:
Buy Low: Brian Tyms, Joseph Randle and Eric Decker
Sell High: Riley Cooper, Steven Jackson and Jarius Wright
Buy High: Kelvin Benjamin, Dwayne Allen and Andre Ellington
Sell Low: Bernard Pierce, Toby Gerhart and Donald Brown
Tyms (1-43-1) reaped immediate dividends, Randle (5-52-0) continued to look good in a limited role and Decker (6-54-1) bounced back against his old team. Cooper (5-59-0) had a solid game in a laugher against New York, Jackson (6-25-0) did precious little in a loss to Chicago and Wright (4-17-0, 21 rushing yards) came back down to earth. Benjamin (7-49-1) continued his scoring ways, Allen (3-49-0) took a backseat to TY Hilton and Ellington (19-67-0, 6-26-0) continued his stranglehold on the starting job. Pierce (15-32-1) resumed backup duties despite limited efficiency, and both Gerhart and Brown were inactive.
Onto the fallout from week six!
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Buy Low
1. Jace Amaro, TE NYJ – Low is a relative term here, as Amaro (10-68-1) is easily coming off the best performance of his rookie season. With that said, the tight end hierarchy is littered with “future stars,” and there’s a solid chance Amaro could be your trade partner’s TE3, or even lower. Settling in as quarterback Geno Smith’s second target (behind Decker), Amaro has now corralled an impressive 34 of his 41 targets while also sporting an average of 6.83 yards-per-target – while not impressive on the surface, that value is actually 15% greater than Smith’s 5.96 YPA average. Though rookie tight ends are unpredictable, Amaro is now on pace for 91 receptions, 747 yards and 2.7 scores, which would render him a low-end PPR TE1.
2. Isaiah Crowell, RB CLE – Similar to Amaro above, Crowell is arguably coming off his best game in the young season (11-77-1). Also analogous, however, is that his price will likely continue to increase. His 5.4 YPC easily lead the team, and while starter Ben Tate has been no slouch (4.6 YPC), his propensity for getting nicked up borders on legendary. Perhaps more importantly, Tate’s deal (two years, $6.2 million) doesn’t guarantee him a roster spot in 2015, and supposed backup Terrance West was a healthy scratch on Sunday. Crowell could potentially be both the present, and the future of the franchise.
3. Davante Adams, WR GB – Finalizing our trend here, Adams is another rookie whose window to buy “low” could be closing soon. In a week six tilt with the Dolphins he was the second most targeted player on the team, turning eight looks into seven receptions for 77 yards. If Adams continues to improve, the Packers could very well let contract-year receiver Randall Cobb walk – this would all but assure Adams of triple-digit targets in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense come 2015. If he’s owned by a contender in your league, now’s the time to offer a veteran starter for his services.
Sell High
1. Andrew Quarless, TE GB – Don’t get me wrong, as a Penn State fan I like “God’s Gift” as much and possibly more than most. And even though he’s surprisingly leading the Packers’ tight end corps, his scoring (two touchdowns on just 18 targets) is more than likely to come down to earth. I’m aware this suggestion is only relevant to those in deeper leagues, but coming off a game where he secured the game-winning score, now is the time to move him.
2. Joe Flacco, QB BAL – When a player who has previously averaged 1.2 passing touchdowns per game puts up five in just a little over a quarter of game action, you know regression is coming. To that point, Flacco’s Sunday outburst (21/36, 306, 5) represented 42% of his passing scores this year, while also tying his season-best in both YPA and completion percentage. Flacco’s a serviceable QB2 in superflex leagues, and that’s fine – try and convince your league-mates he’s something more.
3. Joique Bell, RB DET – Every week I advocate selling a player on who I’m actually high, and this time is no exception. While I’m a fan of Bell, and he played fine this week (18-74-1, 2-23-0), his season average of just 3.4 YPC leaves much to be desired. Simply put, he just doesn’t look like the explosive option he was in years past. With Reggie Bush coming back, I doubt Bell will continue to sequester nearly 70% of the running back carries – if you can achieve a reasonable return, it might be time to gauge market interest.
Buy High
1. TY Hilton, WR IND – In the summer of 2013 I argued the then-sophomore Hilton had a future as a PPR WR1. Though he subsequently improved in his second year in the league, many still doubted the diminutive pass catcher’s viability due to one major problem – consistency. In year three, however, Hilton has answered any and all cynics, posting at least five receptions in every game, while only posting one week worse than 12.5 PPR points. As the most-targeted player on the roster his touchdowns are a virtual lock to increase, and you’ll want to get in now before that happens.
2. Andre Holmes, WR OAK – When fellow receiver Rod Streater went down with a foot injury, the Raiders were left with a void opposite WR1 James Jones. Enter Holmes. In the past two weeks the big-play specialist has tallied nine receptions for 195 yards and three touchdowns, syncing well with big-armed quarterback Derek Carr. Though his efficiency over that stretch (catch percentage of 45%) leaves much to be desired, you can’t put a price on volume (20 targets). He’ll cost more than he did two weeks ago, but could very well be worth the price.
3. Shane Vereen, RB NE – Don’t get me wrong, it nearly makes me sick to my stomach to advocate targeting a New England running back, due to the carousel-esque nature of their respective usages. Unfortunately, due to Stevan Ridley’s likely torn ACL on Sunday, there’s suddenly one less horse in the stable. While there remain no guarantees Vereen’s usage will actually increase, his competition consists of JAG’s (Brandon Bolden and Jonas Gray) and a rookie who simply isn’t ready (James White). Seemingly impossible previously, Vereen could very well add a semblance of consistency to the Patriots backfield.
Sell Low
1. Hakeem Nicks, WR IND – While quarterback phenom Andrew Luck is pacing the league in passing while improving nearly every relevant statistic compared to last year, Nicks has yet to reap the benefits. On pace for a wretched 376 receiving yards, Nicks’ current average of 4.41 yards-per-target would make even Rueben Randle blush. Looking nothing like the explosive playmaker of years past, Nicks could be both literally and metaphorically on his last legs – I’d sell him for whatever you can get, if you can get it.
2. Chris Johnson, RB NYJ – That 2,000-yard season sure seems like a long time ago, huh? Pathetically reduced to a mere four touches on Sunday, CJ?K has continued a weekly pattern of ceding work to the more explosive and simply better Chris Ivory. With the Jets continually falling behind and Johnson failing to procure the requisite touches for fantasy relevance, it’s fair to say his dynasty value has evaporated unless Ivory goes down.
3. Montee Ball, RB DEN – Presumed to become “the man” in the backfield following the off-season departure of Knowshon Moreno, Ball putridly only surpassed 2.9 YPC once in four games before succumbing to a groin injury in week five. While I don’t generally want to punish players who suffer injuries, what has transpired since then has been nothing short of a backfield revolution for the Broncos. Backup Ronnie Hillman has turned 39 carries into 164 yards (4.2 YPC) despite playing against top run defenses in the Cardinals and Jets, and the Broncos as a whole put forward two of their best three rushing performances of the season. Ball isn’t guaranteed anything upon his return, especially if Hillman continues to perform well – I’d be a seller if I could convince a league-mate otherwise.
Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27
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