Dynasty Stock Market: ADP Risers and Fallers

Ryan McDowell Posted On October 11, 2014

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Even though the regular season is well underway, that does not mean we here at DLF stop monitoring player value. Just the opposite, in fact. While there are some events each off-season that plays a role in determining each player’s value, the bulk of their gains or falls are due to play on the field and therefore, it is during the regular season when it is crucial to track player value and adjust your strategies as a result.

Recently, with the help of group of dynasty players, I conducted four in-season start up mock drafts. There are exactly like the off-season mocks that are held monthly from January through August. Lineups are still very flexible with just one player required to start ay each of the four main positions, along with four flex spots. Also, all players earn one point per reception. The main difference between the off-season and in-season mocks are they will not be done monthly. Instead, there will be three periodic sets of drafts, with this being the first. Also, there will only be four in-season mocks making up the average draft position data, while there are six in the off-season.

Today, I want to focus on the players making the biggest gains, as well as those taking the biggest hits in value, based on the ADP data.

Risers

Brian Quick, WR STL
August ADP: 215
In-season ADP: 85
Gain: 130

This should be no surprise. After all, like most players on this list, Rams’ receiver Brian Quick has started the season on fire, and he’s currently on pace for over 1,200 yards. Still just 25 years old, it obviously took Quick some years to adjust to the play of the NFL, but he seems to have a good grasp on things now. Despite playing with three quarterbacks already, including the injured Sam Bradford in pre-season play, Quick has not had a letdown with either of the backups who have seen game action. Often times, these fast risers can feel a bit like a fluke, but I don’t think that’s the case with Quick, who has moved way up my personal rankings as well, and could go even further up the list.

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Larry Donnell, TE NYG
August ADP: 241
In-season ADP: 140
Gain: 101

Here’s another top ten player at his position, and Giants’ tight end Larry Donnell was even drafted in August drafts. One of the issues with using MyFantasyLeague for these drafts is that their software is still set using the pre-season ADP. Obviously, Donnell wasn’t highly ranked in that system, meaning when our participants are viewing a list of the “best available players,” Donnell’s name would not show up. I tell you this to explain that while Donnell jumped from undrafted to an ADP of 140, he could’ve gone even higher if it wasn’t for this glitch. It’s no secret how the Giants have turned some tight ends into fantasy starters, including Brandon Myers and a pre-Bears Martellus Bennett. I see the same thing happening with Donnell and wouldn’t be surprised if he keeps this up and finishes the year as a top 12 tight end.

Allen Hurns, WR JAX
August ADP: 241
In-season ADP: 141
Gain: 100

Jaguars’ rookie receiver Allen Hurns is another undrafted player who is now firmly on the map for dynasty owners. Hurns had a solid pre-season, but seemed buried behind fellow receivers Cecil Shorts, Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson, but injuries to all three of those players has given Hurns just the chance he needed and he’s taken advantage of it. The good news is Hurns exploded in week one, catching two passes and surpassing 100 receiving yards. The bad news is since that time, Hurns has not come close to that production and has battled injuries of his own. While he is not likely to become an every week fantasy starter, Hurns is worthy of a roster spot in dynasty leagues and can even be a spot starter.

Steve Smith, WR BAL
August ADP: 220
In-season ADP: 126
Gain: 94

On Twitter a couple of weeks ago, and then again in last week’s DLF Newsletter, I commented on Ravens’ veteran wide receiver Steve Smith, saying he was not gaining dynasty value. While his play early this season has been equal parts amazing and surprising, my opinion was based on his age of 35. It’s obviously very difficult for older players to gain dynasty value. The DLF mock drafters have served up a heaping plate of crow for me. Not only is Smith gaining value, according to our ADP data, he is among the biggest risers. While the data is staring me in the face, I’ll stubbornly stick with my opinion that Smith’s dynasty value is not gaining much. Obviously, he’s already proven to have value this season, but can that last?

Alfred Blue, RB HOU
August ADP: 236
In-season ADP: 157
Gain: 79

I have to admit, I just don’t get this one. While Alfred Blue has won the backup job behind veteran Arian Foster and even considering the fact that Foster has already been banged up this year, I didn’t expect Blue to gain this much value. I even had to double-check the data to be sure I hadn’t missed something. Blue is a player who was not even the every down back in college, so I have a hard time envisioning him every turning into the Texans’ weekly starter at tailback.

Other risers: Chris Ivory +77, Travis Kelce +72, Isaiah Crowell +69, Mark Ingram +69, Robert Turbin +67, John Brown +66, Derek Carr +57, Jerick McKinnon +53, Russell Wilson +53

Fallers

Ray Rice, RB BAL
August ADP: 99
In-season ADP: 241
Loss: 142

There’s nothing here to tell you that you haven’t already heard. Running back Ray Rice has been banned from the NFL and I don’t see that changing soon. Some like to point out players coming back from long odds, like Michael Vick or Plaxico Burress. This difference is those players were still close to their prime. Rice showed us last year that he was close to being done and his off field behavior sealed the deal. He’s not worth a roster spot in dynasty leagues.

Dennis Pitta, TE BAL
August ADP: 134
In-season ADP: 229
Loss: 95

While he’s clearly lost a great deal of dynasty value following his second consecutive season ending with a fractured hip, the huge fall for Ravens’ tight end Dennis Pitta could be another one attributed to the system over at MyFantasyLeague. Once a player is placed on injured reserve, he’s automatically removed from that ADP list I mentioned earlier. So, maybe this is a case of everyone simply giving up on Pitta and his fragile hip or maybe his descent wouldn’t have been quite as severe if participants dug a bit deeper down the list of available players. As it is, Pitta’s value took a huge hit after that devastating injury and it’s difficult to include him among the top 20 tight ends in dynasty leagues. Our data shows him falling to the TE32 spot, one place behind his teammate Crockett Gillmore. If you can’t stash him on the injured reserve spot, consider dropping him for a healthier and younger option.

Danny Woodhead, RB SD
August ADP: 161
In-season ADP: 241
Loss: 80

I think Danny Woodhead’s situation might be a cross between Rice and Pitta. While a trip to the injured reserve list caused him to plummet down the list at MFL, there also has to be concern if he might just be finished as a fantasy relevant player. Woodhead’s value comes in PPR leagues and he’s played the role formerly held down by Darren Sproles in San Diego. With Woodhead out, the Chargers may have found a new back to take on that job, rookie Branden Oliver, who looked great last week. Woodhead is under contract for two more seasons, and while his salary is very reasonable, it’s possible the Chargers let him go after the season if Oliver keeps this up.

Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
August ADP: 24
In-season ADP: 96
Loss: 72

This is another Rice-like off field situation that is greatly affecting things on the field and on our dynasty teams. Things seem to be getting worse and worse for Vikings’ running back Adrian Peterson, who is looking like a long shot to play again in 2014. There have been whispers that the Vikings are ready to move on and part ways with Peterson. The main difference between Peterson and Rice is that Peterson has shown few signs of nearing the end of his career prior to the news of his transgressions came to light. This means even if the Vikings release him, another team would almost definitely give him a shot, assuming he’s not in prison or permanently suspended by the league. Because of that, he’s still worth a roster spot, despite his massive plunge here.

Danny Amendola, WR NE
August ADP: 162
In-season ADP: 231
Loss: 69

This is another case that baffles me. It’s not that I’m surprised Patriots wide receiver Danny Amendola would fall so far, but rather that he was drafted so highly in August in the first place. Amendola had a few promising games with the Rams and early in his Patriots’ career, but he has never proven he can stay healthy. Considering he’s clearly behind Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski in New England’s passing game, he’s not worthy of keeping at this point.

Other Fallers: Maurice Jones-Drew -67, Jarrett Boykin -64, Kenny Britt -62, Da’Rick Rogers -62, Robert Griffin III -60, Tom Brady -59, Steven Jackson -59, Andre Johnson -59

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.