Daily Optimized Lineup: Week Six

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As part of that experience we at DLF felt it might be of particular interest to our readers to provide them with an optimized lineup that they should be able to plug into a Head to Head or 50/50 game and fully expect to win some money.

George Kritikos filled in wonderfully for me last week and delivered a great number of values for you to feast on last week. As with anything related to the game of football sometimes it all comes down to luck, namely the luck of not getting injured. Nonetheless, injuries happen and we have to absorb and deal with them. Luckily enough, the players injured last week were widely owned so, if you owned let’s say Rashad Jennings, it’s fairly likely many others did also. Therefore, it ends up as a wash and hopefully the other players on your lineup need to outperform your opponents remaining players, something that you had a good chance of achieving.

I’m going to start reflecting back on players each week so that we can observe what made our calls on point or lick our wounds when a player didn’t perform as we had expected. That being said lets dig into this week’s optimized lineup.

Quarterback – Kirk Cousins – $7,600

Kirk Cousins against the Arizona Cardinals defense will likely scare a lot of daily players away, but in Arizona, Cousins is actually facing the 28^th worst team against quarterbacks. Believe it or not, the Cardinals are one of two teams who are giving up an average that exceeds 300 passing yards per game, the other team is Jacksonville. If you’re a defense being mentioned in the same breath as Jacksonville, it’s highly likely you have some issues with your squad. Meanwhile, Washington is averaging the third most passing yards per game this season and are going in at roughly 315 yards per game on average over the past three games. Meanwhile, Arizona is notoriously stiff against the rush weighing in as the fourth toughest defense to rush on in the NFL this season, allowing roughly 77 rushing yards per game. When taken all together, this game makes it highly likely that Cousins will need to throw the ball in order to generate any kind of offense. I fully expect him to pass for over 300 yards and further highlight the Cardinals short-comings.

Projected Stat Line – 25 completions for 310 yards and two touchdowns

Follow-Up – Ben Roethlisberger ($8,300) – Everything about this call felt right honestly. I can find no fault in George for recommending it. Roethlisberger was facing the worst defense in the league and had an absolutely prime match-up. Instead, the Steelers played down to their competition, Jacksonville stepped up to the challenge or a little of both occurred. Roethlisberger ended up hurting the lineup overall with his 653 dollars per point scored actual value. Sure, this was a miss, but nothing about it seemed all that likely to predict in all honesty.

Running Back – Matt Forte – $9,000

Matt Forte has been absolutely insane this season and has decimated much better defenses than the one he faces this week in the Atlanta Falcons. Not only is Atlanta giving up the fifth most rushing yards to opposing offenses, they are also giving up the ninth most passing yards per game as well. The funny thing about Forte is, well, he does both of those things very well. When it comes to fantasy points surrendered to opposing running backs Atlanta ranks dead last, it’s as if they can’t give away points to the position fast enough. In a game where Chicago will be forced to keep up with the Falcons’ high octane offense look for Forte to be fully involved in every aspect of the offensive attack. Bear in mind Forte not only takes a lion’s share of the rushing attempts for the Bears but he also accounts for a full 25% of all receptions on the team as well.

Projected Stat Line – 23 rushes for 85 yards and one touchdown, seven receptions for 35 receiving yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Rashad Jennings ($7,200) – This one hurt a lot of us, myself included. Rashad Jennings had an incredibly tasty matchup last week against the very same Atlanta Falcons team Matt Forte faces this week but only came up with a paltry 8.2 points for a price per point of 878 dollars per point, ouch indeed! The problem here was the fact Jennings sprained his MCL in the match-up and was forced to leave the game earlier. In his place rookie running back Andre Williams stepped in and threw down a heart-breaking 15.3 points that had Jennings owners pulling their hair out. If Jennings would have even gotten half of those points he’d have been a very nice play for his price.

Running Back – Fred Jackson – $6,800

For all the talk of CJ Spiller becoming the featured running back in Buffalo year after year it always seems like Fred Jackson find enough work to stay relevant in the offensive game plan and then proceeds to erode Spillers work as the season goes on. It seems as if this season is no different as Jackson continues to get more touches than Spiller and he’s doing more with those touches as well. This week Jackson and Buffalo face a New England Patriots defense who is ranking 23 in points given up to running backs. The funny thing about that tidbit is that while they are only surrendering 72 rushing yards on average per game, a bulk of those fantasy points are coming through the air to those running backs. Fred Jackson only accounts for roughly a third of all rushing attempts that the Bills attempt, but he also accounts for about a quarter of all the receptions the team makes as well, making him a very valuable asset to the Bills and to fantasy owners as well. We’ve covered it a few times now but FanDuel is a PPR set-up where each reception a player makes helps his point total. So no matter if Jackson gets his yards on the ground or through the air we don’t really care, as long as he gets them.

Projected Stat Line – Eight rushes for 40 yards, five receptions for 60 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Reggie Bush ($7,000).  Bush had a disappointing day with just 13 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards on his two catches. To make matters worse, Bush was hurt in the game and had to leave early. With Joique Bell on the shelf, Bush was poised for a monster day and simply didn’t produce.

Wide Receiver – Julio Jones – $9,000

Wow, do I really need to explain my reasoning for suggesting you to start Julio Jones? OK, whatever the case I’ll do it anyways. AT the most basic level, Matt Ryan is having an incredible year and who is catching a huge chunk of his passes? You guessed it, Jones has hauled in right around 30% of all of Ryan’s passes while accounting for 35% of Atlanta’s receiving yards as well. This week Atlanta will face off with the 26^th ranked team against wide receivers in the Chicago Bears, a team that is giving up the 10^th most passing yards on average per game. The Falcons, meanwhile, are averaging the second most passing yards per game in the NFL at right around 320 yards per game and are averaging right around 26 receptions per game (the third most in the NFL). With Atlanta’s number three wide receiver position in a state of flux due to injuries to Harry Douglas and Devin Hester, look for the Falcons to lean on Jones even more than they normally would this week.

Projected Stat Line – Eight receptions for 130 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Antonio Brown ($9,000) – Antonio Brown was another disappointment in the fact he cost owners 826 dollars per points by only totaling 10.9 points on the day. Once again the matchup was prime, but the Steelers just didn’t seem as if they came to play.

Wide Receiver – Golden Tate – $6,400

Are you surprised I’ve included Golden Tate once again? You shouldn’t be, his price continues to dwell significantly below his value despite great performances, excellent matchups and injuries around him. Of course, the big reason his upside is so high is due to the nagging injury to Calvin Johnson. Nonetheless, even when Johnson was healthy, Tate was putting up significant statistics on a very consistent basis. This week Tate faces a defense in the Minnesota Vikings that ranks 24^th in points given up to wide receivers right when Detroit needs to lean on him most. This is evident by his first receiving touchdown of the year, which came last week, as well as his highest receiving yard total of the season and second most receptions of the season all when Johnson went down early in the game. Tate stepped up in a big way last week and look for him to continue that leadership this week against a Vikings defense that continues to lose its luster week after week.

Projected Stat Line – Seven receptions for 105 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Kelvin Benjamin ($7,100) – Kelvin Benjamin has a seen a significant increase in expectations since his first game of the season. In what seems like an eternity ago many questioned his heart and physicality. Through the first four games of the season, Benjamin accounted for three of Carolina’s passing touchdowns and 329 receiving yards, providing a huge boost to a team that desperately needed someone to step up offensively. However, last weekend we saw the Benjamin that many of his doubters warned us about during the draft process as he cost owners a stomach-churning 2,152 dollars per point with his 3.3 point performance. As I’ve made clear thus far, this past week was a weird one and I fully expect Benjamin to bounce back pretty quickly.

Wide Receiver – Mohamed Sanu – $6,000

Mohamed Sanu has a wonderful opportunity ahead of him this week and I expect him to step up for the sake of his teammates. Much like Golden Tate in Detroit, Sanu finds himself in a position where he must step into the number one wide receiver role with an incredibly dominant player out for the game in AJ Green. While his matchup isn’t all that bad with Carolina giving up the 23^rd most fantasy points to wide receivers, Sanu must now contend with drawing the focus of the Panthers secondary in a way he hasn’t had to deal with thus far in his career. Despite this new responsibility, Sanu should do quite well for the price tag he currently has. I think it goes without saying for any daily players out there, it’s very hard to overlook or pass on a number one wide receiver at an extremely affordable $6,000 with a matchup that isn’t half bad as well.

Projected Stat Line – Six receptions for 85 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Brian Quick ($6,000) – Brian Quick has really been quite a revelation for the St. Louis Rams this season and more importantly, when it comes to this article, daily fantasy players as well. It’s clear at this point the Rams now have a dependable receiver with the ability to stretch the field and he also appears to be developing quite a nice relationship with Austin Davis as well. Quick’s price per point of 259 points during his Sunday performance is the absolute definition of a deal. Look at it this way, if your whole lineup produced at the same rate Quick did, you’d be looking at a 232 point lineup – something I don’t think FanDuel has ever seen.

Tight End – Delanie Walker – $6,000

Delanie Walker is looking like the real deal this season as he has proved to be the much needed offensive spark the Titans have been searching for. Walker is averaging five receptions per game while accumulating 73 receiving yards on average as well en route to being the most targeted receiving option in Tennessee and the player who has accumulated the most receiving yards on the team. Additionally, over five games Walker now has three touchdowns so he is clearly a threat in the red-zone as well. Finally, when you mix in the fact that Charlie Whitehurst desperately needs a dependable target and that the Titans are facing the 31^st worst team against tight ends and Walker looks like a must start options, especially given his extremely affordable $6,000 price tag. Finally, ask yourself, can you afford not to start him against an absolutely dismal Jacksonville defense.

Projected Stat Line: Five catches, 70 yards, one touchdown

Follow-Up – Zach Ertz ($5,400) – Once the Eagles got ahead of the Rams last week their passing game really slowed down which hurt Ertz’ value on this pick. He was able to haul in three receptions for 39 yards so all was not lost but each of his points cost owners a pretty steep 1,000 dollars. More than anything Ertz’ problem was that he was a victim of his team’s success and while that may console him, it doesn’t really make his daily fantasy owners feel all that great about his performance.

Kicker – Robbie Gould – $4,600

Kickers, kickers, kickers, you all know how I distain this part of the article as they just don’t provide much in the way predictable production. Many times you have to try to determine if a defense will bend but not break or if a kicker can gain enough points to be viable by kicking several extra points. In this instance Gould may be able to account for enough points through both field goals and extra points to make him worth a start. Atlanta’s defense is porous enough where he should see some decent action for both field goals and extra points. In the end that’s basically all you can ask for in a kicker, just an opportunity.

Projected Stat Line – Three field goals, three extra points

Follow-Up – Shaun Suisham ($4,800) – Shaun Suisham didn’t blow up the box score on Sunday but as mentioned earlier, no one on the Steelers really did despite the prime matchup. He was able to grab a field goal and two extra points in the effort though, which, while it wasn’t enough to be any kind of deal, also wasn’t something that was all that foreseeable either.

Defense – Washington Redskins – $4,500

The Washington defense is an interesting player here as they could be in store for a decent number of sack and interceptions if they face rookie Logan Thomas. Thomas looked pretty bad when he filled in last week, absorbing multiple sacks and looking pretty thoroughly confused. If Washington is able to keep up a strong rush defense then they would force Arizona to throw and that’s a role Thomas, at this point, just seems ill-equipped to handle. As a low cost option this play depends a lot on whether Thomas starts or not but even if Stanton gets the nod bear in mind that he could exit early as well or just may not be himself. Nonetheless, the value they present allows us to fit a lot of quality options in nearly every position so it’s definitely worth the risk.

Projected Stat Line – 13 points against, one interception, three sacks

Follow-Up – Detroit Lions ($4800) – It’s hard not to play the Lions for as long as their price stays surprisingly low. Detroit pretty much hit the mark last week scoring 11 fantasy points against a Buffalo offense that only scored one touchdown. All in all, it was a solid pick that didn’t really help your lineup but also was nowhere near hurting it either.

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