Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Five

George Kritikos

huddle

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you within our premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. We’ll pick one player from each team who we have our eye on and describe why their weekend performance is a key one for them in relation to their dynasty value.

Early Games

Buffalo at Detroit

Welcome to the Kyle Orton era. While this is an efficiency upgrade, Orton’s career 6.6 yards per attempt isn’t much better than the 6.4 that E.J. Manuel has produced in 2014. It will be interesting to see how Orton’s presence impacts the skill positions in this offense.

The watch here is Calvin Johnson and his status for Sunday. The ankle injury clearly caused him issue as his own coach branded him a week four decoy. If Johnson is rested or reports appear negative, Jeremy Ross will get the increase in snaps while Golden Tate is again heavily featured (season high ten targets last week).

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Cleveland at Tennessee

The return of Ben Tate is expected to muddle up what has been an inconsistent distribution of carries already. Early reports have him handling 60% of the workload with Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West splitting the remainder. Crowell has some touchdown potential, but West is unplayable as long as Tate is relatively healthy.

Bishop Sankey remains the player of interest in Tennessee as Justin Hunter has been disappointing to say the least. Sankey accounted for the largest percentage of snaps (47%) among the running backs and was second in rushing yards to Charlie Whitehurst. Does the increase in usage continue or was last week an anomaly created by the Whiz?

Houston at Dallas

Speaking of backfields in flux, this gunfight in Texas features a Houston team firing a backfield of blanks. Arian Foster’s hamstring has a mind of its own (and a Twitter account) and has decided not to cooperate. Meanwhile, Alfred Blue showed absolutely nothing last week (nine carries, nine yards) and has only managed one missed tackle on 34 attempts for the season. Houston’s only chance in this game is to establish a running game, so let’s see who they use for that job.

Terrance Williams ended up with a great game last week, but I’m not pressing my luck here. I will look to Tony Romo however and his matchup against J.J. Watt. Considering Watt has more quarterback pressures than several teams at this point, Romo will have to make quick decisions. Does Romo turn to his dear friend Jason Witten or does Dez Bryant see more attention in jump ball situations?

Tampa Bay at New Orleans

Last week, Louis Murphy surprisingly led the team with eleven targets, most of them coming after Mike Evans left due to injury. It appears Evans will be out for a few weeks so Murphy could see ample looks, especially in this juicy matchup. Vincent Jackson is going to be shadowed heavily, giving Murphy an opportunity to create underneath.

These hot and cold games from Brandin Cooks make it difficult to gauge his usage on a weekly basis. He has led the Saints’ receivers in targets twice but last week had half the targets (five) as Marques Colston. Cooks will continue to be torturous for those of you that religiously update your fantasy scores on Sunday, but the Tampa-2 defense is tailor-made for an underneath option like Cooks to exploit.

St. Louis at Philadelphia

Guess who’s leading the NFL in deep passing accuracy at 67%? You guessed right, Austin Davis. Against Philadelphia, they will likely need the big play to keep up so Davis will be active downfield. Brian Quick could live up to his name in this one.

On the other side of the ledger, you have Nick Foles who has easily been one of this year’s early disappointments. Despite leading the league in deep pass attempts (39), Foles is one of the worst at it (23% completion rate) with an especially abysmal 17% rate to Jeremy Maclin. I suspect they will continue to air it for now, but until the running game re-establishes itself, the passing game will remain inefficient.

Baltimore at Indianapolis

Torrey Smith had his best game to date with two catches for 53 yards and a touchdown las week. While he has seen significantly fewer targets (19) than Steve Smith (41), Torrey’s average depth of target is higher (15.9 vs 12.1), indicating his role continues to be the deep threat on the team. With the Colts’ offense producing points at an elite rate, this may be a game where the deep ball becomes a necessity as the Ravens play catch-up.

The Colts have morphed into an elite offense and yet many of their offensive personnel decisions are baffling. Why does Hakeem Nicks get 56 snaps last week while Donte Moncrief gets only 27? Who thought giving Trent Richardson 19 carries last week was a good idea when Ahmad Bradshaw (only nine carries) has proven to be the superior runner? I will continue to watch their personnel choices in an effort to make any sense out of their complementary players.

Chicago at Carolina

As the other running back in Chicago, rookie Ka’Deem Carey showed what the Bears saw in him with a nice performance last week in Green Bay. I am not a fan given his slow running nature and inability to make tacklers miss, but there is no doubting his ability to run after contact (2.6 yards last week compared to Matt Forte’s 2.7). This looks like a sell high moment in dynasty leagues, but how he rotates with Forte could lead to some usefulness from a volume perspective.

From a good running situation to what can only be described as a running situation, Darrin Reaves appears to be the bellcow of the week for the Panthers. Jonathan Stewart may be back this week but in what capacity? The Panthers ran it 23 times with their running backs last week so volume is there; Reaves is a likely desperation flex play for those big FAAB spenders.

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

Turning to the Pittsburgh defense, the team used their money to designate Cortez Allen the team’s top corner. He has responded with six passes defended (tied for third in the NFL) and is among the top tackling corners with 23 total tackles (19 solo). For IDP owners that have positional restrictions, Allen is taking the leap from good to great. The ineffective running game of Jacksonville will force them to throw so I expect another solid game from Allen.

In one of the more interesting developments last week, the Jaguars finally gave Denard Robinson the bulk of the snaps (36 to 35 for Toby Gerhart and Jordan Todman). He didn’t do much more with the time than Gerhart has to this point, but this is another rotational situation that will play out over the next few weeks with this being a pivotal game.

Atlanta at New York Giants

Dwight Lowery had another productive game, so I’ve bought in. This week, I turn to the rejuvenated Steven Jackson and his well-maintained workload. He has a 0.24 missed tackle per attempt, more than twice his number in any season since 2007. He is also is averaging 2.7 yards after contact (68% of total yards), putting him into elite territory. This is keeping Devonta Freeman on the bench and making him a good one year rental option.

Switching to another rookie-veteran running back situation, The Giants utilized Andre Williams extensively last week (15 carries) after Rashad Jennings (13) came off a short week three that featured 34 carries. I suspect this was mostly a rest tactic combined with a Giants lead, but Williams’ usage should be monitored as he proved effective against a Redskins defense that knew the run was coming. Jennings is still the primary back, but I could see Williams providing an eight-to-ten carry breather every week in preparation for a bigger role in 2015.

Afternoon Games

Kansas City at San Francisco

It’s fair to say Travis Kelce and Knile Davis are either on your team or require a ransom to get them. Let’s go to the defensive side of the ball and a pair of former undrafted free agents in Josh Mauga and Husain Abdullah. Mauga (inside linebacker) and Abdullah (safety) won starting spots and have done well, both placing in the top twenty in total and solo tackles at their respective positions. Their early season consistency and lower price will be nice as fill-ins for elite players on bye or as a depth play.

With Michael Crabtree dealing with a new set of foot issues, who will step up to take his place if he misses time? My guess here will be Brandon Lloyd and his ability to make a circus catch followed by an unbelievable drop in the same series. Don’t be mistaken, Anquan Boldin would see the bulk of the looks but with Vernon Davis hurting as well, Lloyd is capable of putting up numbers. His deployment in week five will be one to watch, especially if Crabtree is on a snap count or out for the game.

Arizona at Denver

Playing at Denver against a very potent offense puts eyes on the passing game of Arizona. After John Brown’s week three performance that saw two touchdown catches on six targets (four catches), his arrow is pointing up. The fact he saw as many targets that game as Larry Fitzgerald, maybe Arizona looks to spread the field more in an effort to keep up with the Broncos.

Coming off the bye week, Montee Ball really needs to turn things around. His rushing average (3.4) and yards after contact (2.3) are both lower than teammate C.J. Anderson (5.0 & 3.2). Even Ball’s pass blocking is becoming a liability (PFF ranks him 33rd among qualifying backs) so his leash is growing shorter by the day. Anderson could start to get mixed in more if Ball continues to prove ineffective.

New York Jets at San Diego

After Eric Decker, Jace Amaro looks like the best receiving option on this team. His catch rate of 85% is very encouraging and given he is operating in the slot on 49% of his pass routes, the Jets are looking to get him on the field to make plays. Like yoga pants and craft beer, Amaro is becoming very trendy. If the idea of the Jets’ offense scares a fellow owner, now may be the time to grab Amaro as he has legitimate top ten upside.

Here’s a fun Chargers fact –Dwight Freeney leads the NFL in quarterback hurries (15) but has not yet recorded a tackle. What that has to do with Branden Oliver? Absolutely nothing. With the vaunted Jets run defense in front of them, I see the Chargers utilizing Oliver and Donald Brown in a lot of short pass situations. Don’t be surprised if Olvier ends up with five or more catches and proves to have some value in PPR this week.

Sunday Night Football

Cincinnati at New England

My eyes will be focused on Marvin Jones’ impending return. While he is a known boom or bust fantasy player (remember his four touchdown game last year), Jones is the second option this offense needs. Expectations should be tempered this week but his snap count and usage will be telling of his recovery from injury.

Leon Hall and Terrance Newman have turned into a stellar corner duo for the Bengals, so Tom Brady may need to be creative here to generate offense. While risky, I’m expecting Shane Vereen to get solid numbers here. He led the backfield in snaps (29) given the game was out of hand early and I could see it happening again this week.

Monday Night Football

Seattle at Washington

With an established championship team, Seattle has very few players who crack the rotation. Byron Maxwell entered the lineup in week 13 last year and has held his role at corner opposite Richard Sherman quite well. Maxwell is expectedly thrown at a lot (25 targets) compared to Sherman (just 11) but has converted that attention to 18 solo tackles and two passes defended. For IDP owners who need to fill cornerback slots, Maxwell is a player who will get stats as quarterbacks continue to avoid Sherman.

Kirk Cousins and that offense are in a lot of trouble here, so I will focus on defense once again. An interesting first year starter (third year in the league) is middle linebacker Keenan Robinson. Slowly, he is developing into a reliable run stopper for the defense, which will be needed as Marshawn Lynch is expected to be featured here. Robinson is a potential source of double digit tackles this week.

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