Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Four

George Kritikos

huddle

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. We’ll pick one player from each team who we have our eye on and describe why their weekend performance is a key one for them in relation to their dynasty value.

Early Games

Buffalo at Houston

While the E.J. Manuel roller coaster is…well…nauseating; I think this week is a good opportunity to see how C.J. Spiller rebounds. After a ten carry, 25 yard game last week against the Chargers, Spiller needs to show he’s capable of being a part of this backfield. Otherwise, expect to see Bryce Brown try to force his way into the conversation.

While Andre Johnson struggled, DeAndre Hopkins thrived last week as he secured six of nine targets for 116 yards. Bill O’Brien’s offense is capable of supporting some strong wide receiver numbers, so if this is the start of Hopkins’ ascension to the first wide receiver chair, you need to get on board now.

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Green Bay at Chicago

After a week two where Davante Adams asserted himself into the third receiver position, he split snaps with Jarrett Boykin (35 to 36). Dynasty owners know Adams is the guy to own but his deployment as a third or fourth receiver is the difference between a useful bye week option and a nice name on the end of your roster. If this game becomes a shootout, it will be telling to see who gets the larger share of work.

As a Bears fan, I’m happy Alshon Jeffery validated my trust in him last Monday. This week, I turn to the defensive side of the ball with first round rookie Kyle Fuller. With three interceptions in the last two games, he is becoming an IDP of interest, especially in leagues that have higher rewards for big plays. He should get all he can handle against the passing offense of Green Bay, so he may even see a spike in tackle numbers even if the interception is missing.

Tennessee at Indianapolis

We finally had a true Bishop Sankey sighting last week! My favorite running back in a weak rookie class, Sankey averaged six yards per carry on his ten runs while showing some surprising power (three yards per carry after contact). I want to see the team keep him involved, even if this becomes a blowout. Sankey is their most versatile back, so there is no reason to remove him on passing downs.

Like many dynasty owners, I do like those rookies. Donte Moncrief was a receiver I said had top five potential out of this rookie class, high praise given the depth and talent at the position. After catching five of six targets and showing some wiggle in the form of two missed tackles, the potential is translating to the field early. Hopefully the corpse known as Hakeem Nicks is relegated to the bench to give Moncrief more snaps.

Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh

Easy decision here for me. The pick is Mike Glennon, even if Doug Martin says he feels healthy and ready to go. Josh McCown reminded people that the McCown name is synonymous with backup quarterbacking. A thumb injury should give Glennon his chance to run with this job and considering he was third in deep pass accuracy in 2013 – Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans owners should be pleased.

Unfortunately, last week’s highlighted player (Ryan Shazier) was injured and will be out for the next four-to-six weeks. This week, LeGarrette Blount is the person I will be watching given his 7.8 yards per carry, which is among the highest in the league. Le’Veon Bell continues to be a wrecking ball coming out of the backfield, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Blount rolled out there a few more carries a game – this won’t hurt Bell much unless he loses more goal line work.

Carolina at Baltimore

If you have been reading DLF’s weekly series “All About the Solo,” you know assisted and unassisted tackles are a subjective game. So Luke Kuechly having a 50/50 split on his 34 total tackles is somewhat a consequence of where he plays. Baltimore grades out among the highest in terms of solo tackle percentage, so I am curious to see if the man one tackle off the NFL lead can get some luck on his side.

Baltimore is quickly becoming one of the tougher backfields to peg. We have seen Justin Forsett, Bernard Pierce and Lorenzo Taliferro lead the team in rushing attempts in the first three weeks. A lot of FAAB dollars have been spent to find out, but I think even the fake money is too high of a payment when it requires watching this team run the ball. I will lean towards Pierce here, but I think everyone will remain involved.

Detroit at New York Jets

Speaking of terrible running games, the Lions do not have a running back in the top 40 in rushing yards this year after Reggie Bush (13th) and Joique Bell (32nd) both made an appearance in 2013. I hate to say it Bell fans, but Joique is a sell low as he looks completely ineffective (3.0 yards per carry) and doesn’t have the same burst as last year. Bush meanwhile continues to display his versatility catching the ball while averaging over five yards per carry in the last two weeks after a forgettable week one. The Jets will hold this running game, but Bush is capable of five or more catches here.

Geno Smith has been getting unfairly criticized this season despite great improvements in his overall passing. Let’s show a few stats from a pair of passers for comparison:

  • Player A: 65 of 103 (63.1% completion), 713 yards (6.92 per attempt), 3 TDs, 4 INTs, 6 sacks
  • Player B: 64 of 102 (62.7% completion), 697 yards (6.83 per attempt), 5 TDs, 1 INT, 9 sacks

Player A is Geno Smith, Player B is Aaron Rodgers.

Miami at Oakland

A quarterback facing his own job security, Ryan Tannehill has struggled completing the deep pass so far this season (22% completed, 26th in the NFL). His yards per attempt (5.03) are the lowest in the league, but this is the matchup he could take advantage of. Tyvon Branch is out for the season, leaving a giant hole in an already vulnerable defense.

Speaking of giant holes, I believe Denarius Moore had his hands surgically replaced in the off-season with a pair of black holes. Although he leads the team in snaps at the receiver position, he is fourth among wide receivers in yardage, but first in drops with three already. With Rod Streater out for the next few weeks, dynasty owners need to trade Moore off at the first sign of life, if it even exists.

Afternoon Games

Atlanta at Minnesota

I can’t really give you much more to watch on the Atlanta offense, as it’s all worth watching. Instead, let’s move to the defense and Dwight Lowery in the secondary. After a pair of ten solo tackle games, he was less productive with just one solo tackle (and no assists) last week against Tampa Bay. Minnesota may not provide many more opportunities so Lowery could be limited in this matchup as well.

The watch here is Teddy Bridgewater and his impact on the offense. In just one half of football, he completed more deep passes (one) than Matt Cassel had up to this point of the season. Any opportunity to stretch the field would be big, especially in this game where they should expect to be down early. Bridgewater is an accurate, low mistake quarterback and has sneaky QB1 upside in this favorable start.

Jacksonville at San Diego

Speaking of rookie quarterbacks, it’s Bortles Kombat time! Blake Bortles was announced the starter for the remainder of the season and while the offensive line is putrid, there is a lot of young talent at the receiver position. I take last week’s numbers a bit lightly as he was mostly facing prevent-style defenses from Indianapolis. His reaction to a stingy Chargers defense will be more telling of where he is in the development process.

Dynasty owners have to hate the Chargers at this point. Ladarius Green finally saw some targets while Keenan Allen saw a lot of Corey Graham and little else. Jacksonville doesn’t have that type of cornerback, so the time to pounce on Allen is now while the price is low.

Philadelphia at San Francisco

Jordan Matthews showed last week why many owners saw him as a first round rookie dynasty pick and a bona fide stud. Matthews is catching nearly 70% of his targets and despite playing about half the snaps as Riley Cooper (138 to 207), he is only running about 25% less pass routes (90 to 124) meaning he is on the field to run routes, not pass block. San Francisco does not have the depth in the secondary to deal with all these options so I expect Matthews to be making more plays this week.

Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde have not been too different when looking at the stats per carry. The yards after contact (2.5) are the same, showing a similar aptitude when fighting for additional yards. This week, however, I expect Gore to be the beneficiary of a high scoring Philly attack that will force San Francisco to pass more than usual. Hyde will likely be quiet with maybe a goal line carry or two as his upside.

Sunday Night Football

New Orleans at Dallas

With Mark Ingram on the sidelines, it was Khiry Robinson that took the running reins last week. I expect this week to be a little different as Pierre Thomas stands to benefit from a strong pass rush that forces Drew Brees to play a shorter game than usual. I also see Brandin Cooks being the leader in targets here as the Cowboys try to neutralize Jimmy Graham.

For those of you starting Terrance Williams this week, I expect Tony Romo to look down the field more than usual. Williams is going to benefit from the extra attention paid to Dez Bryant along with what is expected to be a high scoring game and a typically subpar pass defense.

Monday Night Football

New England at Kansas City

Rob Gronkowski has looked like he is laboring through the early parts of this season. As of now, I think he starts to slowly turn things back around. Week three was the first time this season Gronk averaged over ten yards per catch in a game. A little explosiveness is coming back and I think he will be on the upswing.

I will say this one last time: Travis Kelce. He leads the team in receiving yards despite playing nearly as many snaps (98 to 94) as Junior Hemingway. Who, you ask? “Exactly,” I answer. This is a future top five tight end who can still be had by savvy owners. Not after another few weeks.

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