Dynasty Stock Market: Gurley Fight
If you are even a casual college football fan, you’ve likely had the privilege to see University of Georgia running back Todd Gurley play. If you haven’t seen him, you’ve at least witnessed Twitter unleashed on a Saturday afternoon while Gurley is in action. He’s drawing comparisons to Adrian Peterson and is one of the most highly regarded running back prospects in years. While I’ll leave the deep analysis of Gurley’s game to the Dynasty Scouts team, I will point out a couple of things that now seem to be common assumptions.
1.) Gurley will end the two year streak which has seen no running back selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. After decades of running back being a highly sought after position, free agency, running back committees and a suddenly short running back “lifespan” has greatly affected the value of the position, pushing even the top prospects the past two years into the second round and beyond. Some of the top ranked running backs in dynasty leagues, such as Giovani Bernard, Montee Ball, Le’Veon Bell and Eddie Lacy were all selected on day two, or later, of the draft. All experts, fans and dynasty players seem to agree Gurley will be a first round pick, potentially even a top ten to fifteen choice.
2.) Gurley will be the near unanimous choice as the 1.01 rookie pick in dynasty drafts. He has some stiff competition as other highly regarded players are expected to be available in 2015 rookie drafts, such as Melvin Gordon, Devin Funchess and Amari Cooper, among others. With that said, Gurley should be the runaway choice as the top pick.
The running back position is clearly in flux for many teams as some big name rookies and high priced free agents are off to poor starts two weeks into the season, not to mentioned the well publicized troubles in Baltimore and Minnesota. With such a great talent as Gurley set to enter the league, which team would be vying for his service? The quick and easy answer is all of them. There is not a team in the league that would not love to add Gurley to their backfield, but there are some that are less likely than others, based on many different factors.
As I thought about the teams that could most use Gurley’s talent on their team, I considered many factors. Among them are:
- Young starters
- Young potential starters
- “In their prime” starters
- Teams likely to pick too late
- Upcoming free agents
With all of those ideas, and more, in place, on to the list. I’ll begin with some of the best current running back situations and the teams least likely to draft Gurley first and I’ll wrap up the list with the teams most likely to win “The Gurley fight.”
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*Note- The Buffalo Bills do not own a first round pick and therefore, were not included in the list.
1.) Philadelphia Eagles
With starter LeSean McCoy in his prime and considered the best back in football as well as fantasy football, the Eagles are set for another couple of years. Backup Darren Sproles has already made a big impact and third stringer Chris Polk should contribute once he returns from his injury.
2.) Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have a pair of young backs in Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill, who are both playing well early this season. Gurley would simply be a luxury pick for this team.
3.) Green Bay Packers
The Packers have Eddie Lacy who has entrenched himself as the starter, despite some concussion concerns two seasons into his career. Top backups James Starks and DuJuan Harris are solid and underrated, both in the NFL and in dynasty leagues.
4.) Cleveland Browns
The Browns, who had seemingly nothing left at the running back position after dealing Trent Richardson last season, have quickly restocked through free agency and the draft. While it’s too early to consider this one of the top backfields in the league, the team is very unlikely to use a first round pick on any running back, considering the money spent on Ben Tate and the youth of Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell.
5.) Seattle Seahawks
There is some uncertainty surrounding the future of starter Marshawn Lynch in Seattle beyond this season, but they also have a pair of talented backups in Robert Turbin and Christine Michael. Expect Lynch to move on and the team to use some combination of the pair that is left.
6.) Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have one of the top backs in the league in Jamaal Charles, but carries and injuries are both piling up for the stud runner. Behind Charles is Knile Davis, who has played well when given the chance, but is unlikely to be able to sustain a starter’s workload for a full season. The team also has some unique depth, including De’Anthony Thomas, Cyrus Gray and Joe McKnight.
7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Doug Martin’s star is beginning to fade, but he has shown the ability to be one of the top backs in the league. Injuries have hampered him too the past year. The good news is backup Bobby Rainey has been exceptional when called upon and the team also added rookie Charles Sims, who is an excellent pass catcher.
8.) Pittsburgh Steelers
As I mentioned, one of the criteria was the presence of a young starter and with Le’Veon Bell in Pittsburgh, it’s difficult to see them adding a player the caliber of Gurley with the early pick it will likely require.
9.) Denver Broncos
The Broncos too have a young starter, though Montee Ball is a bit less established than his second year counterparts of Bernard, Lacy and Bell. The Broncos have some depth with potential as well, namely CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman, though the latter might be running out of chances to prove himself.
10.) Detroit Lions
The Lions are in a different situation than many of the teams above them. Rather than fielding a young starter who looks to hold down the backfield for the next five years, they have a pair of players, both around the age of 30, who form an excellent combination. They do have to begin thinking about the plan after Reggie Bush and Joique Bell are gone, but for now, they will keep running them out there.
11.) Carolina Panthers
It’s not that the Panthers’ backfield is set by any means, with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart getting the bulk of the touches, it’s just how much the pair is being paid. Their contracts have handcuffed the team for years and adding a first round running back, even one like Gurley, would be tough to defend.
12.) Chicago Bears
The Bears are in great shape for now with Matt Forte seeing a huge percentage on running back snaps and still producing at a high level. The Bears also drafted Ka’Deem Carey who has ascended to the top backup position already. Of course, if Forte were to go down with a serious injury, the Bears would plummet down (more likely for Gurley) the list.
13.) St. Louis Rams
Despite rumors to the contrary, second year back Zac Stacy is still the back to own in St. Louis, though his backups are above average and together, they form a nice trio that land them in the upper half of this list. With Benny Cunningham handling passing downs and Tre Mason waiting in the wings, the Rams will not select Gurley – they have too many needs elsewhere to consider that move.
14.) Dallas Cowboys
Another team with a nice trio of backs is the Cowboys, headlined by starter DeMarco Murray, who will be a free agent following this season. With Lance Dunbar and Joseph Randle behind him, the uncertainty of Murray’s future lands the Cowboys in the middle of this list. Murray re-signing would obviously dampen the chances of Gurley ending up in the Big D.
15.) San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers seem to add a running back every year through the draft and with Frank Gore set to be a free agent, they may need some of those picks to pay off. Kendall Hunter was one of those picks years ago and he’s now out for the year and also entering free agency. With it looking like Marcus Lattimore may never give the Niners anything, which leaves only rookie Carlos Hyde. His presence alone makes it unlikely that the team would grab Gurley. Expect Gore to return for another year if he doesn’t retire and share carries with Hyde.
16.) New Orleans Saints
The Saints finally had a breakout running back as Mark Ingram was off to a great start before injuring his hand. The solid depth will benefit the team as Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas will hold down the Saints’ fort for the time being. Ingram is also a free agent, giving the team an interesting decision. Other than the Ingram pick a few years back, the Saints have relied on unearthing sleepers at running back, making a Gurley pick doubtful.
17.) Washington Redskins
We’re on the downward slide of the list and getting to the teams who could realistically consider adding Gurley. The Redskins seem set at the top of the depth chart with Alfred Morris, but top backup Roy Helu will be a free agent and could be on his way out of town. Silas Redd is next on the list and offers little upside. The Redskins will need to add some depth, but I don’t think Gurley fits the bill.
18.) New York Giants
The Giants performed an off-season makeover as they added Rashad Jennings through free agency and thumper Andre Williams via the draft. The Giants are not looking good early this season and their pick should be high enough to add Gurley if they choose. Needs at a number of other positions will likely preclude that choice.
19.) Minnesota Vikings
As you can imagine, the Vikings are a tough team to rank in this exercise with the uncertainty of starter Adrian Peterson, so I took the easy way out and stuck them in the middle. If Peterson is found not guilty of these charges he’s facing and returns to the team, it’s highly doubtful the team would look at Gurley in the draft. On the other hand, if Peterson never suits up in purple and gold again, they instantly become one of the favorites for Gurley’s services. Current starter Matt Asiata is entering free agency and Jerick McKinnon is not an every down back.
20.) Arizona Cardinals
Another team with a back in trouble is the Arizona Cardinals. Luckily for their team, it’s backup Jonathan Dwyer, who is also a free agent following the season. Starter Andre Ellington’s job is shaky at best. The team seemed hesitant to hand him the starter’s job and when they did, he quickly got hurt, which he has a history of doing. Stepfan Taylor is third on the depth chart. If Ellington can stay healthy and keep producing, no Gurley out west, otherwise, they Cardinals will likely be picking in the correct range to grab the Georgia back.
21.) Tennessee Titans
The Titans running gam is not off to a good start. All you need to know is they are starting Shonn Greene. The rest of the depth chart is compiled of players the Titans are hoping can step up and produce at a consistent level; free agent and new Titan Dexter McCluster and rookie Bishop Sankey. The Titans are unlikely to give up on Sankey this quickly.
22.) Houston Texans
We’re now getting to the serious contenders in the “Gurley fight.” The Texans have been one of the top running teams over the past several years, headlined by Arian Foster. They’ve also had some great depth in the past, but that’s dried up now and they are left with Jonathan Grimes and Alfred Blue. If Foster’s injury woes come back to the forefront, the Texans could seriously consider grabbing Gurley and waving goodbye to Foster.
23.) Miami Dolphins
Nothing seems to go right for the Dolphins’ offense lately. After the surprising week one play of Knowshon Moreno, he suffers an injury that will leave the backfield to Lamar Miller and some rookie depth. Moreno is also a free agent following the season. If he stays in town, the Dolphins probably try to make it through another season with the Moreno/Miller duo, but if he bolts, they could look at Gurley. They should certainly have a high enough pick to do so.
24.) New York Jets
The New York Jets are another team who seems to often opt for the big name, when given the chance. The backfield duo of Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson has actually looked very good in the season’s first two weeks, but I’m not sure many expect that to continue.
25.) Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars gave a nice payday to former Viking Toby Gerhart and that has been a bust very early in the season. While there’s plenty of time for him to turn things around, he’s not enough to keep a team from selecting Gurley and considering the 2014 draft was all about the quarterback and wide receiver position for the Jags, they could consider Gurley in 2015.
26.) Oakland Raiders
We know the Raiders are all about hyped players and Gurley will be getting as much attention as any non-quarterback in the pre-draft process, so the pick makes sense on that front. Darren McFadden will also be a free agent, just as he was this past off-season. Newly signed starter Maurice Jones-Drew is already banged up and looking like he’s done. Latavius Murray is an interesting prospect, but he has had injury issues of his own and is completely unproven.
27.) Atlanta Falcons
Yes, the Falcons have a name brand threesome of Steven Jackson, along with rookie Devonta Freeman and Jacquizz Rodgers, but there is little certainty beyond this season. Rodgers is a free agent and according to some rumors, Jackson barely made the team this season. It wouldn’t be a shock if this was his last. Considering Gurley’s popularity in the state of Georgia, the Falcons are strong contender unless Freeman grabs this job and shows he won’t let it go.
28.) New England Patriots
This team is almost as difficult to predict as the Minnesota Vikings, for far different reasons. First, we all know head coach Bill Belichick is always tough to predict, especially when it comes to his running backs. Next, the team’s top two backs, Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen are both free agents. I’ve seen predictions of all kinds regarding their future. It’s possible both will leave, or both will stay. The Pats have shown interest in freak athletes and Gurley fits that bill. While their pick may not be high enough to select Gurley, we know the Patriots are not afraid to move up or down the draft board.
29.) San Diego Chargers
In terms of just where their 2015 first round pick might land, this team is tough to predict. However, we know a few things about their backfield next year. Starter Ryan Mathews is a free agent and it would not be surprising if they let him walk. He’s had consistent injury issues (as he already does this season) and the team has shown a lack of confidence in him over the years, adding players like Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown. Neither of those would be starter caliber players, so if Mathews is gone, San Diego would be in search of his replacement.
30.) Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens backfield is in terrible shape in the wake of the Ray Rice controversy. The release of Rice leaves the team with Bernard Pierce, Justin Forsett and Lorenzo Taliaferro. Forsett will be a free agent and Pierce has looked downright terrible. General manager Ozzie Newsome is considered one of the best in the business and the Ravens filling that need with Gurley would make perfect sense.
31.) Indianapolis Colts
It’s the Indianapolis Colts who need Todd Gurley the most and win this version of the Gurley fight. We all know about the struggles of current starter Trent Richardson, who has already been benched once in less than a year with the team. Veteran Ahmad Bradshaw is playing well this year, but is doubtful to make a full season unscathed (let alone two), not to mention he will be a free agent following the season. The Colts are obviously set at quarterback with Andrew Luck and have a nice corps of receivers. What their offense needs (other than a replacement for coordinator Pep Hamilton) is a running back who can move the chains. Welcome to Indy, Mr. Gurley!
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