IDP Watch: Week One

IDP leagues can be won with some preemptive in-season pickups or trading for players who are on the rise, but whom the masses have not picked up on. Each week, we’ll detail a handful of IDP players or trends essential for dynasty players to monitor.

Often, things like quarterback hurries, quarterback knockdowns, or snap counts don’t appear in the box scores. These are key indicators of potential value changes that may be forthcoming as they show a particular player is getting after the quarterback and a string of sacks may be on the horizon or a linebacker may be coming off of the field more than originally expected.

The goal is to largely avoid stellar IDP players since many of those players are already heavily in the eyes of IDP owners. Instead, here are some players to keep an eye on based on week one performances:

Derrick Johnson, ILB KC

With Johnson done for the year with an Achilles tear, immediate tackle opportunities are available on Kansas City. In particular, this injury may create a perfect stop-gap option to plug in while a young linebacker on your roster is groomed with limited snaps. Many are flocking to Josh Mauga, but don’t dismiss James-Michael Johnson too quickly. Both are expected to start in week two against the Broncos with Joe Mays out on the returnable-PUP list and both played about 70 percent of the team’s snaps in week one and finished with similar numbers. It’s unclear who will emerge, but this situation is one to monitor.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

William Gholston, TB DE

Adrian Clayborn is out for the year with a torn bicep and that leaves Gholston as the immediate beneficiary. In two games as a starter late last season, he averaged three and a half tackles and two assists. While his massive size is imposing, he can also rush the quarterback as evidenced with nine hurries (seven over the last four weeks) and two sacks in 2013. He missed week one with an injury, but is expected to be active in week two as a starter. There’s not much talk about Gholston as an option yet, but he should be rostered in deep leagues given the improved performance in late 2013. The underachieving Da’Quan Bowers is also in the mix for increased snaps and possesses a high ceiling given his natural talent, but don’t expect much given his track record.

Zaviar Gooden, ILB TEN

Another beneficiary of an injury, Gooden is set to take over as one of the Titans’ starters inside. Zach Brown will miss the reason of the season with a torn pectoral, which presents an opportunity for several young linebackers, but most notably Gooden. After Brown went down after four plays in week one, Gooden took over. However, he only played 22 snaps and didn’t play in sub packages. That’s a long-term concern considering his snap volume may not be able to sustain routine IDP value, but more encouraging is he produced four tackles on those limited snaps. He should certainly be rostered, but unless he’s facing a favorable match up with a high probably of base packages, he’s a risky start right now.

The dark horse in this situation is rookie Avery Williamson, who should be monitored and even stashed depending on league depth to see how Gooden fares.

Cameron Wake, DE MIA

Comeback player of the year? After week one, it certainly appears so. At 32, Wake is best suited as a short-term option for an IDP contender, but a kickoff weekend with two sacks, two forced fumbles, and three quarterback hurries is impressive. After disappointing owners in 2013 with only eight and a half sacks, Wake appears to be back on his every other year pace for double-digit sacks.

On the flip side, if I’m debating a rebuild situation or don’t think I’d be able to contend in 2014, he’s someone to deal either this week or after what should be another solid performance in week two.

Sio Moore, WLB OAK

Prior to the NFL Draft, many tabbed Moore as a breakout candidate, but the addition of Khalil Mack with the fifth overall pick halted the optimism. Moore’s monstrous week one performance of 11 tackles, two assists, two forced fumbles and a sack, proved the earlier supporters right. Oh, by the way, he played 100 percent of the team’s snaps. While Mack is a certainty to play every down eventually, it’s Moore who’s pushing forward with that role early on as Mack ‘only’ played 78% of the team’s snaps. It’s entirely possible both will play in subpackages, ultimately, but it’s something to monitor. The one sobering factor to consider with Moore’s performance is the tackle opportunities for the Raiders were towards the higher end of the typical range.

A related, but separate side note – Miles Burris played 100% of the team’s snaps in week one as well. After a rough sophomore season, he appears to be back to role he finished 2014 in. He’s another player to acquire if not already rostered, though he may be the one who loses the subpackage role as Mack continues to mature.

Emmanuel Lamur, SLB CIN

IDP owners typically shy away from strongside linebackers given the position’s natural tackle ceiling, but Lamur may be one of the exceptions. He’s an athletic game changer who plays all three downs. If you’re looking for big plays, this is your guy. With five tackles, six assists and an interception on 100% of the team’s snaps in week one, he’s squarely on everyone’s IDP radar. The buzz existed for much of the preseason and was validated in week one. If his owners are still doubting or he’s on the wire, now is the time to acquire.

Joplo Bartu, ILB ATL

In the Falcons’ new look 3-4 defense in week one, Bartu started alongside Paul Worrilow inside with Sean Weatherspoon out for the year. My favorite for this spot long-term is Prince Shembo, but Bartu’s week one performance justifies his current role. He finished with four tackles, six assists and a fumble recovery on 70% of the team’s snaps. Against a team like the Saints that spreads the field and throws at a high rate, it’s an impressive number indicative of a player who should continue to see a nice volume of snaps going forward.

Preston Brown, BUF WLB/MLB

With Nigel Bradham out week one due to a suspension, Brown got the start in week one. He largely struggled, but put up decent numbers finishing with five tackles and two assists (second highest on team). With Keith Rivers expected to miss week two, Brown will get another start – this time he’ll man the strongside linebacker spot. As a rookie seeing early opportunities, this week will be key to see if he’s improved from the week one struggles. As a solid coverage linebacker, his long-term prospects are encouraging for dynasty owners.

Deep Dynasty Looks

Allen Bailey, DE KC

Whenever Bailey sees snaps, he produces. In three starts in 2013, he averaged four tackles. Not only is he active in the run game, but gets to the quarterback finishing with 21 hurries last season. He started 2014 right with a sack and two tackles. IDP owners hate the 3-4 ends, but Bailey is another one who is underrated. He possesses some nice upside given how active he is in both facets of the game and the volume of snaps he’s a certainty to see with Mike Devito out for the season and thin depth remaining.

Jamari Lattimore, ILB, GB

As Brad Jones continues to struggle inside, Lattimore should get a shot at some point. Jones played every down in week one, but was atrocious.

Mike Daniels, DE GB

Another Packer with potential, Daniels played 66% of team’s snaps and finished with three tackles and three assists. He’s an excellent run defender and an underrated 3-4 defensive end.

Jonathan Hankins, DT NYG

With the loss of Linval Joseph in free agency, the Giants need a young defensive tackle to step up. Hankins showed promise in week one with four tackles, an assist, and three hurries on 72 percent of the team’s snaps.

Follow Steve on Twitter at @SteveWyremski.
[/am4show]