Dynasty Mythbusters: Justin Forsett and Allen Hurns

Jacob Feldman

forsett

Welcome back to the Dynasty Mythbusters series! Week one is in the books and it felt good seeing meaningful football once again. For those of you unfamiliar with the myth busters series, the goal of the article is to analyze certain trends, potential breakouts or just downright bad play in an attempt to predict what we can expect in the future.

Am I always right? Definitely not. But I did suggest that you sell, sell, sell on Trent Richardson very early in the season last year (before it was a trendy thing to say!, ignore the week one “breakouts” of Jerome Simpson and Leonard Hankerson and that Marvin Jones is the future opposite AJ Green.

The fantasy community as a whole tends to have a very strong tendency to overreact to small sample sizes. This is especially true when it comes to week one production. After all, it is only natural after months and months of buildup, thinking your team is great, to get disappointed when Victor Cruz or Michael Crabtree get two catches and Larry Fitzgerald gets half of that. Don’t go trading them for pennies on the dollar. They will be back. It works in the opposite direction as well. The Steve Smith of 2014 isn’t going to have seven catches for 118 yards and a touchdown every week. Don’t do anything foolish like trading your first round pick or an every week starter away for him.

Through this series, I’ll do my best to focus on players who are likely to be talked up as potential waiver additions or who are end of the bench players on most rosters who you might be able to snag with a reasonable trade offer. After all, it is a little late for me to be telling you to go after Bernard Pierce since Ray Rice is gone.

Allen Hurns, WR JAX
Week One statline: Nine targets good for four receptions, 110 yards and two touchdowns
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

Hurns isn’t a secret or at least he shouldn’t be if you’ve been paying much attention to the preseason or DLF over the last month. With Cecil Shorts out due to injury, Hurns started in his place and picked up right where he left off. He should already be rostered if you’re in a competent dynasty league but as an end of the bench player, you might be able to pry him away at a reasonable price. The question is if he’s worth it.

The Good: The best thing about Hurns just might be that he is and has been producing on the field. What he did on Sunday isn’t exactly new. None of us were looking up his name to figure out who he is because he’s been on fire for a month now, leading the NFL in receiving yards for the preseason. It wasn’t too long ago another undrafted rookie led the preseason in receiving yards. His rookie season was derailed by injury, but he’s been a fantasy starter ever since. That’s of course Victor Cruz.

Another big advantage for Hurns is his experience with the system. The new Jaguar offense is very similar to the Miami Hurricane offense Hurns was in during college because they have the same coordinator. It has allowed Hurns to jump right in and play while the heads of some of the other rookies and even some veterans are still spinning.

The Bad: If we are going to be objective about Hurns, we need to bring up the athletic ability or potential lack of it. Hurns was invited to the combine and it wasn’t a pretty showing. In fact, he was one of the worst three performances there for a wide receiver. At 6’1” and around 200 pounds, he has okay height but a rather lean build. His 4.55 second time in the 40 yard dash is lacking while his jumps, shuttle run and three cone drill were all well below average. This is part of why he fell in the draft as it triggered questions about his ability to play at an NFL level.

Another major question about Hurns is where does he fit? With Cecil Shorts eventually going to get healthy and a pair of second round picks in Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson as well as Mike Brown and the slim chance of Justin Blackmon, things are pretty crowded. Injuries have cleared the way for now, but it is fair to wonder how long the window will stay open for Hurns.

The Ugly Truth: Being a stats guy, I’m torn on Hurns. With what he did at the combine, his chances of being a long term asset are almost non-existent. Yet at the same time, he’s been producing against the first team defense for a month now. If you watched his game he made a quick move to shake the defender and get behind the safety for his first touchdown. On the second touchdown, he made a rather athletic adjustment to a ball thrown way behind him before powering through two defenders to score. He plays the game a whole lot better than the combine numbers suggest. I’m in no means saying he is an elite athlete, but he seems to have enough of a skill set to compete at the NFL level.

As for the opportunity question, he’s already shown that he is at least in the top three spots on the depth chart, if not higher. Once you’re in the league, where you’re drafted really only matters when it comes to the size of that rookie contract. If he can continue to out play the other rookies, the round they were drafted in won’t matter. After all, both Cruz and Wes Welker were undrafted receivers. The success rate for second round receivers is only slightly higher. Than those taken in late rounds or undrafted, so it is time to stop using draft position to discount Hurns.

Hurns is tricky to predict in part due to the question of his long term value. I think he’s going to have a very good year this year, but his slightly limited athletic ability as well as the fact the other rookies will eventually catch up make me hesitate ever so slightly. I think his ceiling long term is as a complementary receiver in the NFL and as more of a WR3 in fantasy leagues, assuming Blake Bortles develops into a quality starter. The floor is of course him not starting and wasting a roster spot. If your league has really dropped the ball and he’s still a free agent, I’m spending a large chunk to scoop him up. Otherwise I’m checking to see what his price is in my leagues. You might be able to start the discussion with a third round pick, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the owner wants a little bit more than that given the number of third round busts in rookie drafts.

Final Verdict: I think Hurns is going to be around the Jaguars and fantasy rosters for several more years. Go get him if the price is right.

Justin Forsett, RB BAL
Week one statline: 11 carries for 70 yards and one touchdown with five receptions for 14 yards

The first two weeks of Baltimore’s season were supposed to be the time for Bernard Pierce to shine while Ray Rice served his pitiful two games. Pierce got the start but as punishment for his early fumble (the first of his career), he sat on the bench for most of the game. To the surprise of many, the next man up was Forsett and he took advantage of his opportunity. Since he was likely fourth on the pecking order, he’s probably on your waiver wire. Forsett is 28, going on 29, so the long term prospects are rather limited for him and for his future with the Ravens. The question of course is if he’s worth the short term investment.

The Good: As we mentioned with Hurns, one of the biggest advantages that Forsett has is his familiarity with the offensive system he is in. In 2012, Forsett played for Gary Kubiak’s Texans and the zone blocking scheme he is so fond of using. Forsett produced an impressive 5.9 yards per carry that year, though it needs to be taken with a grain of salt since it was only 63 carries, one of which went for 81 yards. Without that run, the yards per carry drop to 4.7. It is still a very nice total, but not quite as off the charts. Regardless, Forsett is a natural fit for the scheme with Kubiak in Baltimore now and it showed on Sunday.

Forsett has bounced around a lot (five teams in seven seasons), but during all of that time he has been largely healthy and sure handed. He had some issues with fumbles back in 2009, but since then he has had only one fumble in 244 carries. In terms of health, he hasn’t missed any games outside of the ones he missed last season with a broken bone in his foot.

The Bad: The first concern that comes up for Forsett is if he can handle the workload. Sunday was only the ninth time in seven seasons and just the second time since the middle of 2010 that Forsett has had double digit carries. Now he did average over 23 rushes a game during his Senior year in college but that was almost a decade ago and against less physical defenders. At 5’8” and a little under 200 pounds it is fair to wonder how his nearly 29 year old body would hold up if he’s asked to be the leader in the backfield.

The other major concern is of course the others on the team. Bernard Pierce has more raw talent and much better size than Forsett does. It is also fair to wonder if the benching of Pierce was just about sending a message. If that is the case, it was a rather harsh message to send to someone who didn’t have a fumble in his first 265 carries in the NFL, but NFL coaches can be fickle beasts. Pierce is going to get a chance to play and if the 2012 version of Pierce shows up he is going to push Forsett back into a backup role pretty quickly.

The Ugly Truth: There is an awful lot of talk right now about the Ravens’ backfield, but it is important to take a step back and look at the big picture. The Ravens knew Ray Rice was going to be suspended, though they had no idea how long, when they drafted Lorenzo Taliaferro and signed Forsett, so they have prepared for life without him. Pierce was the guy heading into the season and for very good reason. He’s easily the most talented rusher on the team. He has also been very good about ball security over his time in the NFL, so this is likely a fluky occurrence.

I think Forsett’s role on Sunday was much more of a fluke than the start of a new pattern. The Ravens know Pierce is the superior player and the most likely future of the position for them. This doesn’t mean Forsett is going to go away as I expect him to function as the change of pace and potentially as the third down back, but I don’t think he’s going to be startable in fantasy leagues one month from now. If you’re desperate and need someone for week two, I guess you can pick him up but I don’t think he’s going to be worth the price it will take to get him. If you for some reason had him on roster, now is the time to sell while you can. Whatever you can get is likely to be well worth the effort.

Final Verdict: I think his time as a fantasy asset will be short lived and he isn’t worth the price it will take to get him in blind bidding leagues. If you had him on your roster already, for some strange reason, move him for whatever you can get.

[/am4show]

jacob feldman