Dynasty Dupes: Week One

Rob Shandler Posted On September 11, 2014

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In every one of your dynasty leagues there are likely a few owners who are prone to overreactions to weekly developments. These “chicken little” types are quick to doubt their long-term player valuations and often, as a result, are not as loyal to their current players. They are cut deep by paltry week-to-week performances and their loyalty wavers more than a Tony Romo popularity metric. As a patient and calculating individual, it is your responsibility to vulture in and take advantage of these owners in order to improve your squad.

In order to benefit from the unsteady hands of these dynasty owners, you need to have a thorough understanding of their psychological trending as influenced by weekly results. You need to be able to psychoanalyze the Jamaal Charles owner who has been sweating the Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive line changes in combination with the tick-downs in value associated with his biological clock. You also must understand the power of a dominant prime-time performance, which always seems to overshadow the circumstances (like the fact that the dominance just occurred against a horrible secondary). When you combine this psychoanalysis with an unmistakable hiccup on the playing field, you have opportunity!

The bi-weekly Dynasty Dupes series will provide you with some players you can use as a base for trade proposals. While you may not be able to do the straight up deal, you can easily add some moving parts from solid depth in order to acquire a more valuable dynasty player using the short term trending of a player’s value. Here are this week’s trade bases.

Week One QB Dynasty Dupe

Offer Matt Ryan for Aaron Rodgers

Matt Ryan, a top 10 dynasty QB1, came out and destroyed a much respected Saints defense in week one using a ton of revitalized weapons in the passing game. Julio Jones, coming off a scary foot injury, looked spectacularly explosive and Roddy White showed that he is not a gibbled old man. Ryan was simply awesome statistically and is currently the top ranked quarterback in fantasy after this week. He was extremely de-valued entering the season, but that was largely due to question marks on offense and most of those doubts were quelled in week one. So many people were watching that game instead of the only other afternoon contest, the Panthers/Bucs matchup sans Cam Newton.

Rodgers, who is my top dynasty quarterback, had a very rough outing against a still-dominant Seahawks defensive unit. The Packers essentially avoided Richard Sherman’s island entirely and could not find room on the other side to operate. To make matters worse, they lost steady if not spectacular right tackle Brian Bulaga and tone setting running back Eddie Lacy for the remainder of the contest. Rodgers looked discombobulated for much of the night, and that image is anchored in the psyche of Rodgers owners especially because the spotlight was so bright. It’s terribly off-putting to watch Superman struggle.

You may have to kick in some draft picks to make this dupe work (as is the case with many of these trades), but it will pay off handsomely in the long-term. Try to offset the loss by doing a pick swap (Ryan and a 2015 2^nd round pick for Rodgers and a 4^th rounder, for example). Ryan will not continue his torrid pace while Rodgers will provide a hefty return on your investment when playing anybody but Seattle with his favorable fantasy schedule. If the Rodgers owner in your league is also a Julio Jones owner subconsciously salivating over the thought of a Ryan/Jones combo, the Jaws theme music should be playing in your head.

Week One RB Dynasty Dupe

Give Marshawn Lynch for Jamaal Charles

[inlinead]Lynch is another player whose perceived value is inflated from having a monster spotlight game seen by every self-respecting football fan. He seemed even better conditioned this season after his holdout, and punished Packers defenders all night long. His dynasty perceptual value was also improved by the relative invisibility of Christine Michael, who never touched the ball since he was out with an injury. Lynch had 124 combined yards and two touchdowns and looked like a man among boys out there.

While Chiefs’ Head Coach Andy Reid continues to answer questions about how he possibly could have left Charles out of the game plan, many owners are left wondering if the loss of starting offensive linemen Branden Albert, Geoff Schwartz, and Jon Asomoah will be too much for Charles to overcome in his quest to repeat his dominant 2013 season. He has a massively disappointing 34 yards on 11 touches and the Chiefs stumbled all over the field against a Titans defense that can hardly be considered stout. There may also be a fear in Charles owners that his wallet size may be weighing him down after his large contract extension in the offseason. Charles’s otherworldly week-to-week consistency last season could be working against him this week, as his struggles could represent a fundamental flaw going forward in the minds of his owners.

Again, you may have to add some moving parts to get this done, but it will be worth it when Charles regains his form and you have him pounding out points for you, particularly in the PPR format. You will be able to argue that these guys are basically the same age in December, and you’ll also say that Lynch is “obviously” in the better situation with a Seattle attack that is “obviously” improved from last season. If you can lock this trade in, at the very least you will not have to deal with the offseason uncertainty sure to surround Lynch while you bask safely in the comfort of Charles’ long term deal.

Week One WR Dynasty Dupe

Give Cordarrelle Patterson for Keenan Allen

Patterson had over one hundred yards and a touchdown on the ground while piling up the fantasy points this week. The Rams, who never seem to surprise with their ineptitude, were not ready for him even after watching the similarly skilled Percy Harvin shred the Packers in the same way a few days earlier. Patterson, as many predicted, didn’t have much of an effect in the passing game, though. His playmaking ability with the ball in his hands is undeniable, but he confirmed he is still a work in progress as a route runner and won’t sneak up on anybody for the rest of the season as teams game plan for his work as a ball carrier.

Keenan Allen, conversely, is a fantastic route runner with above average athleticism who had the misfortune of lining up against mega-stud defensive back Patrick Peterson throughout the Chargers’ week one tilt against the Cardinals on primetime. He likely broke a lot of owners’ hearts late Monday night as they chewed on fingernails at the edge of their seats waiting for Allen to carry them to victory. His five catch performance for 37 measly yards likely disappointed many. Adding insult to those in close contests using toothpicks to hold their eyes open to see the conclusion of the game, he dropped a ball on the final play of the game. Mark my words, this will be his worst performance of the season. (For what it’s worth, he looked very explosive on his few opportunities).

These receivers are not that terribly far apart in dynasty value, so you may even be able to complete this transaction as a straight-up deal. I would start it as a one-for-one offer and show good faith by adding a very small part to seal it up. Allen’s value will climb at a steeper slope than Patterson this season because he plays with a solid veteran quarterback and will not be dealing with an impending quarterback turnover.

Week One TE Dynasty Dupe

Give Julius Thomas for Jimmy Graham

It’s pretty safe to assume most owners in your league saw Orange Julius carve up the Colts’ defense in an extremely impressive fashion on Sunday night. He wasn’t catching little check downs all night, he was running a variety of different routes, overpowering defenders and juking safeties with ease. His seven catches, 104 yards and three touchdowns was as impressive as any tight end in recent memory. Thomas’ performance may have solidified his spot in the psyche of dynasty owners as a truly elite TE1 – this means he may very well have edged his way into Graham-Gronkville.

Graham also had a productive first week, but most of his catches were of the ten yard curl variety and he failed to reach the end zone. He was bracketed most of the contest. Graham is simply awesome to own (trust me) and his owners love the fact they don’t have to worry about the position whatsoever. He could just as easily break out with a three touchdown performance next week, so don’t think that guys will be gushing over the prospect of trading him just for Thomas and some junk.

You’re going to have to pay for this one. With Thomas announcing his presence in primetime, though, this may be the closest in value these players will be all season. Try a combo deal with a significant improvement of the Graham owner’s weakest position group. If you can pull it off, you may not benefit from a massive point differential come season’s end. You will, however, own the Holy Grail of tight ends…and this psychological value definitely factors into real dynasty value for future negotiations.

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