Tuesday Transactions: Week One

Eric Hardter

crabtree

Dynasty football is undoubtedly a marathon, not a sprint.  With that said, in-season roster management is still every bit as critical as in a standard re-draft format, and arguably even more so given the potential long-term ramifications.  As such, this weekly piece is here to provide you with a dozen moves it might just behoove you to make.

Continuing, these transactions will be broken down into four categories:  players you should buy low, sell high, buy high and sell low.  The first two are self explanatory and follow the typical stock market analogy, which is that you should pounce when the market fluctuates in your favor – if you can get the most bang for your buck or scoop up the metaphorical penny stocks who have room to grow, it could be in your best interest to do so.  Conversely, the latter two categories represent a contradictory stance, and some might even consider them “desperation” moves – however, it’s my belief that buying high beats buying higher, and selling low is preferable to selling even lower.

Before I dispense my advice though, I want to provide one final disclaimer – these opinions are my own, and if you’re higher or lower on any of the players mentioned below you should absolutely stick to your guns.  In that vein, given the small sample size thus far in the season I also believe it’s too soon to irrevocably change an opinion you spent an entire off-season cultivating.  As such, for now these recommended moves will vary little, if at all, from my summertime beliefs.

Let’s get started!

Buy Low
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1. Michael Crabtree, WR SF

In our recent predictions article I deemed Crabtree the most undervalued player in dynasty football, and I’m sticking to it.  Yes, Anquan Boldin looked better on Sunday but I still believe in the history between Crabtree and quarterback Colin Kaepernick.  The 49ers won’t get to play Dallas every week, and game flow will inevitably dictate that San Francisco gets the ball in the hands of their top receiver.

2. Khiry Robinson, RB NO

If there’s a backup player you really like, the best time to buy might be when the starter, in this case Mark Ingram, has an aberrant and likely unrepeatable performance (two touchdowns on just 13 carries).  While Robinson isn’t expected to get the touches necessary to produce in 2014, he looks the part of a 2015 breakout when Ingram and fellow backfield mate Pierre Thomas have likely departed.  This is more of a stash for the future, but if Ingram’s hype causes a drop in price for Robinson it’s a good time to pounce.

3. Dwayne Bowe, WR KC

While I don’t expect Alex Smith to air it out 35 times every week, a whopping 13 of those targets (37.1%) went to nominal WR1 Donnie Avery.  Given the underwhelming nature of his talent, Avery was only able to corral seven of Smith’s passes, “good” for 84 yards and a pitiful average of 6.46 yards-per-target.  Bowe showed signs of life in the Chiefs’ week three preseason dress rehearsal, and should resume hogging targets in week two.

Sell High

1. Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT

Yes, I know the stat-line, and it was impressive.  The problem is it was a little too impressive, and I don’t expect Bell to approach that efficiency or maintain a weekly workload of 27 touches.  I’ve previously posited that I don’t agree with the masses and view him as a top-five dynasty running back, and one excellent week isn’t enough to undo a year’s worth of previous data – I would take this opportunity to sell for a King’s ransom if possible.

2. Jeremy Maclin, WR PHI

A casual glimpse at the final line would suggest a productive day for the oft-injured Philly receiver, but there’s more here than meets the eye.  68 of Maclin’s 97 receiving yards came on a touchdown reception that you or I could have caught and run in, as Jacksonville’s entire defense seemingly forgot to cover him.  His other nine targets yielded a mere three receptions for 29 yards, a tally I consider to align better with his actual skill level than the fluke score.  If you can sell him as a top 20-25 PPR receiver I’d do so immediately.

3. Arian Foster, RB HOU

Yes, the volume was certainly there, as was the utter monopolization of running back carries.  Unfortunately, Foster’s efficiency (3.8 YPC against a mediocre Washington defense) was subpar, and he still remains one of the league’s biggest injury risks at the running back position.  If coach Bill O’Brien continues to run Foster at this pace (29 total touches), a physical breakdown isn’t too far off.

Buy High

1. Knowshon Moreno, RB MIA

One of the league’s biggest off-season punching bags, Moreno was effectively left for dead following his relocation to South Beach.  All he did was once again display the efficiency he provided in 2013, while also doubling up on “starter” Lamar Miller’s carries.  This shouldn’t come as a surprise, as Moreno produced in Denver before Peyton Manning arrived – if your fellow owners still want to consider his play fluky in nature, now’s the time to pounce.

2. Kendall Wright, WR TEN

More of a volume receiver during his first two seasons in the league, the biggest thing missing from Wright’s resume were touchdowns.  Enter new coach Ken Whisenhunt, the man responsible for getting smallish receiver Eddie Royal eight scores in 2013, and suddenly Wright is no longer allergic to the end zone!  Though he may never turn into the big play threat he was in college, if Wright can combine volume and efficiency (six receptions on seven targets) with increased opportunities to cross the goal line, we could be looking at a mid-range PPR WR2.

3. Dennis Pitta, TE BAL

Similar to with Bowe above, I don’t expect Joe Flacco to replicate his opening day volume on a weekly basis.  With that said, Pitta was a clear beneficiary, with a whopping 15 targets on the day.  Make no mistake about it, his 2013 breakout was merely delayed, not ended by his preseason hip injury – as the offense’s security blanket and Flacco’s real-life best friend on the team, there’s a lot to like moving forward.

Sell Low

1. Coby Fleener, TE IND

As was stated on Twitter numerous times during the course of the Sunday Night Football broadcast, it’s fair to wonder if Fleener was selected in the second round solely because of his collegiate connection to quarterback Andrew Luck.  Thus far in his short career it certainly hasn’t been due to the “talent” he’s flashed, a trend which continued on Sunday to the tune of three receptions for 21 yards (on eight targets), to go along with a critical drop that resulted in a Luck interception.  Positional cohort Dwayne Allen is the far superior option and Fleener arguably belongs on the waiver wire – if you can still get anything for him, it’s worth trying.

2. Trent Richardson, RB IND

I’m not trying to pile on the Colts here, but there remains a reasonable faction that still believes in the young Indy ball carrier.  In the words of Elsa from Frozen, let it go.  T-Rich showed little to make us believe his issues stemmed from a lack of understanding of the playbook, and veteran Ahmad Bradshaw ran both literal and figurative laps around him on the field.  Richardson barely saw action during the Colts’ furious fourth quarter comeback, begging an important question – if they don’t trust him, why should you?

3. Lance Dunbar, RB DAL

So much for those fostering dreams of a backfield committee with starter DeMarco Murray, eh?  Dunbar remains an intriguing physical specimen, but at 5’8” and 195 pounds he lacks the size of his supposed Detroit analogues, Joique Bell (5’11”, 229 pounds) and Reggie Bush (6’0”, 205 pounds).  While he’s not likely to be out-touched 25-3 by Murray every week, it’s concerning he didn’t receive even a single carry – I don’t expect these supposed “big plans” to materialize for Dunbar like we heard about all off-season.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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eric hardter