Going against the Grain
We’ve all been at that point in the fantasy football week when we need a miracle. Perhaps we need a player to get one more reception for 17 yards and we win. Maybe we need a defense not to give up a garbage touchdown or a running back to get just a few more yards. The feeling is desperate and nerve racking as we are left helpless. Then come Tuesday morning, it was another loss and we’re staring at the matchup thinking, “What could I have done differently?” Maybe you’ve had a run of these outcomes and didn’t think it was possible. You remember feeling confident when you looked at your roster after the draft and thought “this is my year.” The draft is where you could’ve gone against the grain and gained your advantage, but instead you went with the trendy strategy. Defenses and Kickers are the positions people wait until late in the draft to select. However, I’m here to tell you it might be the difference between winning and losing your season.
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Point differential is the key to fantasy football, not players. If you’ve seen the movie Moneyball, Jonah Hill says, “Your goal shouldn’t be to buy players, it should be to buy runs.” That’s a little of what I’m trying to share with you today. For instance, I believe Jimmy Graham is the best player in fantasy football. He outscored the #12 ranked tight end more than two times over – now that’s a huge point difference every week. Having a leg up on your opponent is huge, but that’s very costly. I’m going to show how to gain little advantages here and there to put your fantasy football team over the top.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has been one of the best defenses in fantasy football for the past few seasons and is the consensus top defense entering this season. How much of a difference can a defense make? In one of my standard scoring leagues, Seattle scored 3.57 more points per game than the #12 ranked defense. That difference last year was similar in going from Dez Bryant to Larry Fitzgerald or Eddie Lacy to Pierre Thomas. Over the last three seasons, they’ve scored 2.25 more points than the #12 ranked defense, so it’s not a one season anomaly. I don’t think anyone wants to go into the season with Thomas as their top running back or Fitzgerald as their top wideout. Yet, people will draft Lacy or Bryant several rounds in front of a small statistical advantage. Instead, why not gain a competitive advantage by taking a defense a round or two before everyone else? Looking at Seattle’s off-season, they did lose some pieces and depth in that great defense. However, I think they will replace them with close to the same quality and not miss a beat. It’s also important to look at the offense when picking a defense. Good offenses will help with time of possession, field position, and getting a lead to help with defensive scoring. Seattle’s offense will be better this season, which could make the defense even better.
Stephen Gostkowski is the consensus top kicker entering this season and he’s the next value point play. He scored 2.63 more points per game than the #12 ranked kicker last season and has averaged 1.69 more points per game over the last three seasons – that’s a real advantage often ignored by the consensus drafter. Gostkowski will have plenty of opportunities with a better offense this season with Rob Gronkowski back healthy. Grab Gostkowski a round before the kicker run and already have a leg up on your opponent.
Negatives exist with every strategy and this strategy will hurt the depth of your team slightly. Instead of getting a sleeper earlier, you will have to settle for a lessened sleeper later in the draft. I’ve found the bottom of my redraft or dynasty roster is a recycle bin anyway. I’m always churning out players for the next guy I’m hoping hits it big. So you’ll have to give up a couple of rounds in a sleeper pick or two in order to employ this strategy.
Other hidden advantages exist with this strategy as well. You won’t be wasting time on the waiver wire every week to get a defense or kicker. Your time is valuable and instead you’ll be looking over matchups instead of hoping you bid enough to win a kicker of defense. Each owner has their own sleepers and others often go ignored. Therefore, you can incorporate this strategy and might still get your player. This past weekend I was deciding between two sleepers and finally picked Bernard Pierce. Then a few rounds later I noticed Mark Ingram was still available and snatched him up as well. You can also throw out some roadblocks for your opponents because you’re a step ahead of them in the defense game. Let’s say you have a big matchup in week eight – you can use your resources to grab a favorable waiver wire defense that week and stash them on your bench ahead of time – this forces your opponent to obtain a worse defense and expands your advantage. Lastly, by drafting the first kicker or defense, it’s possible you start the run on drafting them – this will let your sleepers fall to you anyway later in the draft.
Combining both strategies last year would’ve given you an amazing 6.2 point per game bonus every week. The average over the last three seasons would’ve given you a 3.94 points per game. That difference puts your team in the driver’s seat so you’re not hoping for a late touchdown or big play to give you the win. Go back and look at some of your bad beats in fantasy football over the years. Then look at the end of your draft and see if you can sacrifice a round or two to gain a big advantage every week. I’m not telling you to pick a defense or kicker in the sixth round because that’s not advantageous. But keep it in the back of your mind as the draft unfolds and if you’re just picking sleeper after sleeper, take a chance here. You need your sleepers to actually score fantasy football points in your starting lineup to make a difference and both of these strategies help win you games.
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Nick can be found on Twitter at @_NickWhalen
- Dynasty Capsule: Chicago Bears - February 1, 2017
- Dynasty 101: Trading - September 5, 2016
- Summer Sleeper: Chicago Bears - August 19, 2016
