Dynasty WR Deep Dive: Application & Evaluation, Part Two

After breaking down the lifecycle of a wide receiver and the rules we have created to evaluate the position, let’s put it into practice. Today, we’ll take a look at young receivers of interest and apply the rules we have put in place. Does this mean that the rules will predict their future? No. What it will do is help us understand their potential based on historical data and give us one more tool to try and minimize risk at the draft or trade table.

Everyone is welcome to speak freely in the comments or on Twitter @Rotohack with other players to analyze or in an attempt to poke holes at my logic…and confidence.

Time to continue with the non-rookies!

[am4show  have=’p2;p3;p4;p5;p6;’  guest_error=’sub_message’  user_error=’sub_message’ ]

Justin Hunter, WR TEN

Full disclosure: I’m a big believer in Hunter. Going into his second year in the league, the 6’4” Hunter has all the numbers that indicate a great career. The aforementioned height along with 4.44 speed and good production in college (including nine touchdowns in 2012) foreshadow a leap in NFL stats. The question is for non-owners, are we too late to the party or can a profit still be had? Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Very High

Keenan Allen, WR SD

I wasn’t sure about including Allen since he had such a great rookie season, so consider this a bit of an exercise. Unfortunately, Allen had a bad knee injury that led to a 4.71 40-yard dash time so it is hard to take much from that. His size (6’2”) is a plus although his college production (six touchdowns) was probably hurt by Marvin Jones’ presence. The numbers suggest a low grade here, but injury influences likely took their toll on his body of work. I’m cheating here. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Incomplete

DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU

Hopkins is another rookie last year who showed a lot of positive signs. Hopkins was a college stud (18 touchdowns for Clemson in 2012) and has the size (6’1”) to continue that production in the NFL. His issue was a 4.57 time at the combine, but he proved that was a fluke with two runs of 4.46 and 4.41 at his pro day; something that shows on the field. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Very High

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR MIN

This year’s redraft darling, Patterson was well known to the dynasty community before he even entered the NFL. He has the freakish attributes for an elite receiver with size (6’2”) and speed (4.42) to go with that upside reputation. His college stats seem light at first glance (five receiving touchdowns), but just like with Minnesota, Patterson can score in many ways, supplementing his meager receiving numbers with another five rushing and returning scores. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Very High

Tavon Austin, WR STL

Last year’s top receiver in the NFL Draft, Austin disappointed as a rookie. His college stats (15 total touchdowns his junior year at West Virginia) were exceptional and his speed (4.34) is elite. His size (5’9”) leaves a lot to be desired and is really as short as a receiver can be before he is undraftable. Can he overcome one glaring deficiency, as he did in college, to become elite? No, but he’ll have value in PPR and leagues that utilize return yardage. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Medium

TY Hilton, WR IND

I don’t have the love for Hilton emotionally that many owners do, so let’s get that out of the way first. What I do love is good college stats (eight touchdowns after twice getting nine at FIU) and electric speed (4.37). The size (5’10”) is not ideal but less of a deterrent when you can run like Hilton. I would put him below Hunter but with upside. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Extra Medium (what I consider between medium & high)

Kendall Wright, WR TEN

Another player who I am struggling to accept, Wright showed some PPR gold caliber numbers last year. He also proved to be a high quality college player with 14 touchdowns his last year at Baylor. The speed (4.49) is in that acceptable range even if the size (5’10”) is not. Wright is right there with Hilton, but I think he has a little less upside. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Extra Medium

Rueben Randle, WR NYG

Randle is another hyped up, underutilized player getting an opportunity to start. His production was fair in college (eight touchdowns in 2011), as is his speed (4.55). He does have the size (6’3”) that you want to see in a receiver though. There is some potential, but very little stands out here. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Medium

Terrance Williams, WR DAL

With Miles Austin gone from Dallas, I am interested to see what Williams can do as the uncontested number two receiver. Williams has the size (6’2”) with borderline speed (4.52), making him a good target for Tony Romo. He also showed great college production (12 touchdowns at Baylor) before Williams turned pro. There’s still some upside here as the price hasn’t reached its peak. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: High

Jarrett Boykin, WR GB

Another player in a great offense, Boykin now inherits the third receiver spot after James Jones’ departure this offseason. He has the size (6’2”) to get to the ball, but not the speed (4.62) that will be needed to separate. The five touchdowns his last year of college is disappointing, but Virginia Tech hasn’t thrown more than seven to a receiver since 2000. Still, I have a hard time getting behind Boykin here. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Low

Golden Tate, WR DET

Tate is a player who has flirted with top 20 status, but seems to have been held back by a conservative offense. Going to Detroit may help him utilize his world-class speed (4.42) and cash in on the potential he showed in college (17 touchdowns for Notre Dame in 2009). The height (5’10”) is a bit of a deterrent but every other number suggests a very good receiver. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: High

Aaron Dobson, WR NE

Dobson disappointed in his rookie season as he struggled with a foot injury (which required screws inserted) and a Belichick-based depth chart. There are reasons for optimism including size (6’3”) and speed (4.42) that would put him in the same league as fantasy star-to-be Cordarrelle Patterson. Dobson though, had an iffy college career as he followed up a 12 touchdown season with a three touchdown dud. Which should we believe? Hard to say but the potential is certainly there. Assuming the foot is ok, there is a lot to like here. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Extra Medium

Marvin Jones, WR CIN

Foot injury aside, Jones was looking like a player who had all the opportunity to prove himself. Size (6’2”) and speed (4.46) pass the test but his college production does not. Only three touchdowns his last season at Cal and never more than six suggests a low level player. Jones will come back from injury but I am not expecting more than a fourth wide receiver with limited upside. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Medium

Robert Woods, WR BUF

Short of getting injured, Woods had about the roughest offseason imaginable. Between getting Mike Williams and drafting Sammy Watkins, Woods may be no better than a third receiver in 2014. He has size (6’1”) and speed (4.51) that suggests someone capable of performing in the NFL. Top it off with Woods’ college production at USC (11 touchdowns in 2012 after 15 in 2011) and we have a player. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Extra Medium

Kenny Stills, WR NO

Stills is on the right offense to be productive and he has the skills to produce. Drew Brees will enjoy having Stills’ size (6’1”) and speed (4.38) on the perimeter of that offense. Add in college production (11 touchdowns in 2012) and it suggests he knows how to use those skills. Even though the receiving core is crowded, Stills is capable of a lot here. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: High

Marlon Brown, WR BAL

Marlon Brown burst on the scene last year with a surprising seven touchdown rookie season. The height (6’5”) should come as no surprise with his red zone prowess but the speed (4.63) is a big detriment at this position. Add in a lackluster college career (four touchdowns at Georgia in 2012) and it makes for a tough sell. He may get some value in touchdown heavy leagues but little else. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Low

Stephen Hill, WR NYJ

Remember how excited everyone one to see how Hill’s physical skills would translate to the NFL? The height (6’4”) and speed (4.28) that reminded people of other Georgia Tech alums like Demaryius Thomas and Calvin Johnson. The problem is, Hill did not produce in college (five touchdowns) the way Thomas (eight) and Johnson (fifteen) did. It is a red flag that should tell you Hill had problems putting together those skills in college, why expect it in the NFL? Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Medium

Markus Wheaton, WR PIT

Wheaton has a golden opportunity for playing time in the Steelers offense in 2014. He is a touch short (5’11”) but does have the speed (4.45) you want to see in a receiver. At Oregon State, Wheaton had great numbers (thirteen total touchdowns in 2012) that indicate a receiver who can make plays. I’m a believer here as there is nothing glaringly missing from his repertoire. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: High

Marquess Wilson, WR CHI

An unfortunate collarbone break will ruin Wilson’s season and a chance to be more involved in the Chicago offense early this season. Size (6’3”) and pretty good speed (4.51) would have fit in well with his fellow receivers. Wilson’s college production (five touchdowns in 2012 after 12 in 2011) varied during his time but issues with his coach may have been to blame. Nevertheless, he is not quite elite, but he could do well with an opportunity to start. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Medium

Quinton Patton, WR SF

Patton will not have a big role in San Francisco this year, but older offensive players may soon give way. His height (6’1”) and speed (4.53) are both borderline numbers when thinking about performance in the NFL. His college numbers (13 touchdowns in 2012) suggest Patton does well with what physical skills he has. Likely would be a contributing player with a starting spot, but would be a backup on your fantasy team, nothing more. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Medium

Da’Rick Rogers, WR, IND

Buried among a sea of wide receivers and pass catching tight ends, I don’t expect we will hear much from Rogers in 2014. Blessed with the size (6’3”) of a quality option, the speed (4.52) is merely serviceable. His production at Tennessee (nine touchdowns in 2012) was good, but again, nothing stood out. Rogers may need to leave Indianapolis to get an opportunity, but he wouldn’t be more than a backup option with limited upside. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Low

Well, that completes my wide receiver series but be on the lookout for future articles. I’m always looking for ideas so if you have a good one, let me know.

[/am4show]