Dynasty WR Deep Dive: Application and Evaluation

After breaking down the lifecycle of a wide receiver and the rules we have created to evaluate the position; let’s put it into practice. We will take a look at rookie and other young receivers of interest and apply the rules we have put in place. Does this mean that the rules will predict their future? No. What it will do is help us understand their potential based on historical data and give us one more tool to try and minimize risk at the draft or trade table.

Everyone is welcome to speak freely in the comments or on Twitter @Rotohack with other players to analyze or in an attempt to poke holes at my logic…and confidence.

Let’s start with the rookie class.

Sammy Watkins, WR BUF

Before I even looked at the numbers, I was a big fan of Watkins coming out of college. Now, knowing that his college touchdown production (12 his junior year), size (6’1”), and speed (4.43) all point towards a future star, it just makes my starry-eyed view of him a little easier to handle. He will be a stud for years to come, no hesitations here. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Very High

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Mike Evans, WR TB

Players with his combination of size (6’5”) and speed (4.53) are not easy to find. Add in his abilities in end zone (12 touchdowns last year) in college and everything points towards a low-risk option destined for a long, successful career. I would put him a hair behind Watkins, but it is a very thin one. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Very High

Odell Beckham, WR NYG

To be honest, I am a little torn on Beckham. He has the necessary speed (4.43) and his size (6’0”) makes him just shy of elite numbers. The problem is, he was never a prolific scorer in college (eight touchdowns last year after two starting seasons of two touchdowns prior) makes me wonder if his slender frame will hold up as a professional. Consider me cautiously optimistic. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Medium to High (let’s call it Extra Medium for now)

Brandin Cooks, WR NO

The obsession in redraft and dynasty leagues alike is pretty astonishing for Cooks, although there is a case to be made. His speed (4.33) is otherworldly but as we learned before, it’s about not being slow. Cooks is not tall (5’10”) but he found a way to score 16 touchdowns last year at Oregon State so it’s less of a concern with him. I’m sold on Cooks being a strong contributor for your team, just not sure I’m quite as lovestruck as others who see him on the same level as Evans or Watkins. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: High

Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR

If this was a redraft analysis, he may be the guy to end the season as the best rookie receiver. But, we play the game of long-term investments so opportunity must be viewed as temporary because you never know what can happen. His size (6’5”) is impressive but his speed (4.61) puts him in scary territory. The fact  Benjamin put up 15 touchdowns at Florida State with just 54 catches could be a sign of a future as a better receiver in TD-heavy leagues. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Medium

Marqise Lee, WR JAX

Lee was a player I think most people saw as a slam dunk first rounder after his first two seasons at USC. Unfortunately, injuries and ineptitude with drops caused him to drop into the second round. The size (6’1”) is there and his speed (4.52) is borderline but I wouldn’t say it will hurt Lee. The five touchdowns his junior season was a major disappointment after 11 and 14 in his first two. I don’t think he has Cooks’ potential but comparing Marqise Lee to Beckham seems about right. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Extra Medium

Jordan Matthews, WR PHI

Another player who has seen his stock rise significantly, Matthews’ early hype has some merit. The size (6’3”) and speed (4.46) is the type of combination you want from an elite wide receiver. The production in college, however, was short of that with seven touchdowns his junior season after nine the previous year. There is ample reason to believe Matthews will be very productive and could end up being one of the five best receivers from this class, which is quite a feat. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: High

Paul Richardson, WR SEA

It is interesting to see Richardson flying so under the radar as a result of his employment with the Seattle Seahawks. An argument could be made his situation is a positive given Percy Harvin’s injury history and the lack of quality options on the team. Now, looking at a 6’1” receiver with 4.40 speed would suggest an early target in dynasty drafts. The ten touchdowns at Colorado before entering the draft is good as well but shy of other elite options. Someone has to catch passes in Seattle, so if you have a year of patience, I could see Richardson paying off well. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Extra Medium

Davante Adams, WR GB

Here is another case where the love affair is apparent with some analysts as I have seen rankings go as high as fourth in dynasty formats. Adams has the size (6’1”) and has some of the best college stats I have seen (24 touchdowns in 2013), making him an elite type of receiver. His speed is not ideal (4.56), which would be my only concern with Adams. I’m not willing to put him up there with Evans or Watkins, but he is not as far off as his NFL draft slot makes it appear. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: High

Cody Latimer, WR DEN

Latimer is an example of a player who will see changes in opportunity and scheme in the near future, making his current situation less relevant. He has the size (6’2”) with pretty good speed (4.52) to be effective. He had alright college production with nine touchdowns for Indiana in 2013. There is nothing that concerns me with Latimer, but I also don’t see anything that makes me think he will be a top flight receiver either. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Medium

Allen Robinson, WR JAX

Robinson and new teammate and fellow rookie receiver Marqise Lee share many of the same traits. Robinson is a little taller (6’2”) and boasts a slightly faster 40 time (4.47) than Lee, which points to a high likelihood of fantasy relevance. Also similar to Lee, Robinson had a bit of a letdown his junior year, only scoring six times after an 11 touchdown season the year before. If I had to pick between the two Jacksonville receivers, I would give Robinson the slightest of edges, but not enough to push him up a full tier. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Extra Medium

Jarvis Landry, WR MIA

A former LSU Tiger, Jarvis Landry teamed with Odell Beckham to form one of college’s toughest receiving duos. Landry ended his 2013 season with ten touchdowns, a good season overall. But when you combine a lack in height (5’11”) with mediocre speed (4.65), it is very difficult to be successful in the NFL. Nothing stands out here and I would avoid him if I could. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Low

Josh Huff, WR PHI

A lot has been made of Huff’s reunion with former Oregon coach Chip Kell,y but he has some skills that fit many offenses. Huff is a shorter than ideal (5’11”) but does have good speed (4.46). He also had a productive year at Oregon that was capped with a 12 touchdown season.  There is value here but the ceiling is not as high as other rookie receivers. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Medium

Donte Moncrief, WR IND

If we were rating purely on physical talent, Moncrief may be one of the top three receivers coming out of the NFL draft. Great size (6’2”) and blazing speed (4.40) makes him an elite level athlete at the position. However, his positional inconstancies are evident with only six touchdowns last year with Mississippi (in his defense, he had ten the year before). I could see Moncrief end up in the top five for productivity, which is quite a feat in this draft class. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: High

John Brown, WR ARI

Brown is a small school prospect coming from Pittsburg State. A shorter wideout (5’10”) who ran the second fastest time (4.34) after Brandin Cooks, Brown shows some potential. However, it is tough to tell how well his small school stats will translate to NFL performance. Brown has great return skills and will be more of an asset in yardage leagues than TD-heavy formats. I’m intrigued but Brown is likely a role player at best. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Low

Bruce Ellington, WR SF

The former South Carolina Gamecock, Bruce Ellington is another of the mid-round speed merchants. Timing a 4.45 40-yard dash, Ellington makes up somewhat for a severe lack of size (5’9”). Underwhelming college production (eight touchdowns in 2013) shows another potential concern as he moves to the NFL. Ellington has a steep curve to overcome and I don’t think he will stand out in this draft class. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Low

Martavis Bryant, WR PIT

Another interesting athlete looking to build on middling college production. Bryant is big (6’4”) and surprisingly fast (4.42), measuring up well against any other receiver in the draft class. My concern though, is how he was only able to manage seven touchdowns for Clemson with such obvious physical advantages. If you are willing to blame Clemson teammate Watkins for Bryant’s lack of college production, he is a top tier target. If not, he looks fantasy relevant but not a star. I’ll split the difference. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Extra Medium

This covers many of the early round and/or receivers of interest in the 2014 rookie wide receiver class. We will next take a look at other young receivers and apply the same logic.

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