Summer Sleeper: Dallas Cowboys
With fantasy season right around the corner, we’re continuing our annual series focusing on a few sleepers from all 32 teams in the NFL. You can find all of the Summer Sleeper articles here.
These sleepers all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but all merit a little more talking about here in the Premium Content section. Some of these players are deep dynasty sleepers who could merit a spot on your bench in a deep league, while others are players who may contribute a little faster than the deep prospects, but deserve more attention than they may be getting. By definition, a sleeper could mean something a little different to everyone, but we’re simply doing the best job we can to unearth one player from each team who fits the category in some way, shape or form.
We’ll never insult you with a comprehensive list of “sleepers” which include such such dynasty mainstay names as Toby Gerhart, Christine Michael or Cordarrelle Patterson. You’re all too good for that.
While many of these players will undoubtedly fizzle, there’s more value in looking more closely at these deeper prospects and players. We invite you to keep an open mind and either or re-assess your value on those who may be rostered in your league or consider adding a few of these deeper prospects we focus on this Summer who are free agents in your league – after all, some are destined to pan out, too.
Feel free to add your own comments about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own!
[am4show have=’p2;p3;p4;p5;p6;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
Fantasy owners considering a potential sleeper from “Big D” have a few quality options. Cole Beasley has some potential as the slot receiver for the Cowboys and Gavin Escobar could shine as the second tight end behind Jason Witten. Both would be good choices considering Dallas will likely be a very pass-heavy offense in 2014, but I chose to go with another pass catcher as our summer sleeper from Dallas. A potential pass catching running back.
Lance Dunbar, RB
After being signed by the Cowboys as a rookie free agent out of North Texas in 2012, Dunbar could only be found among the deepest of sleepers on dynasty cheat sheets. When he was cut that summer, he wasn’t even on the radar of most that were looking for sleepers to fill the last few spots on their fantasy roster.
Over the next two seasons however, Dunbar was signed to Dallas’ practice squad, moved to the active roster and made his way to becoming the primary backup to lead back DeMarco Murray. Along the way, he’s only handled the rock 51 times, gaining 225 yards in 21 career games while adding 13 receptions for 92 yards. He hasn’t found pay dirt in his young career.
If you look closely at what Dunbar has accomplished thus far in Dallas, you’ll see that much of those numbers came in one game – Last Thanksgiving against Oakland. That day, he ran for 82 yards on just 12 carries before leaving with a torn ligament in his left knee, which caused him to miss the remainder of the season. He’s also missed time over the last two years due to a hamstring injury and a sprained foot.
Sure, Dunbar’s injury history is a bit alarming and his lack of use is cause for concern, but there are reasons to think he could be a prime break out candidate in 2014.
First, Scott Linehan.
Before explaining how the Cowboys’ new offensive coordinator impacts Dunbar’s upside, let’s take a look at what he’s done for the Lions’ running backs over his last five years as Detroit’s play caller:
Did you know that over the last five years, running backs in Linehan’s offense have been targeted an average of 132 times per season and accounted for 100 receptions and nearly 900 yards of offense? To break things down a bit further, let’s take a look at who was putting up these receiving numbers for Linehan over his time in Detroit:
What‘s most interesting about these numbers is exactly what should make Dunbar so intriguing to fantasy owners in 2014. In his five years calling plays in Detroit, Linehan has consistently used a second running back in his passing attack.
In 2013, Reggie Bush (223 carries, 54 receptions) and Joique Bell (166 carries, 53 receptions) were used equally in the passing game with Bush getting a few more carries. The year before, Mikel Leshoure (214 carries, 34 receptions) handled a majority of the carries but Bell (52 receptions, 82 carries) was the primary weapon out of the backfield in the passing game.
When Jahvid Best had his breakout season for the Lions in 2010, Linehan gave him a majority of the touches because he was by far the most talented playmaker in the Lions backfield. He logged 171 carries and 58 receptions that year while backup Maurice Morris carried just 90 times and caught 26 passes. The next year Best suffered what would become a career ending injury mid-season and Linehan was forced to spread the touches out equally between Morris (80 carries, 26 receptions) and Kevin Smith (72 carries, 22 receptions.)
The point here is not to give you a lesson on the forgotten running backs that paraded through the Lions’ backfield over the last handful of seasons. It’s that depending on talent, Linehan will spread touches out between the tailbacks both on the ground and through the air.
Coming out of college, Dunbar was known as a dynamic, shifty playmaker with good speed (he posted a 4.52 second 40-yard dash at North Texas’ pro day), an impressive burst and above average hands. In his four years on campus, he caught 97 passes for 1,033 yards and eight touchdowns to go along with the 4,224 rushing yards and 41 more scores on the ground.
Fellow DLF writer Jacob Feldman recently made a bold prediction that Dunbar would slide into Bell’s role for Linehan’s offense and have over 1,000 combined yards. Looking at these numbers, he may be right.
The second reason for dynasty owners to consider Dunbar as a sleeper with breakout potential even though he has a top-ten fantasy running back ahead of him on the depth chart is the running back ahead of him on the depth chart.
That’s right, Murray may be the biggest reason of all to go get Dunbar. To go along with his own injury history which has caused him to miss 11 games over the last three seasons, Murray is in the final year of his contract with the Cowboys. To this point there have been no reports of an extension or any negotiations so there’s a realistic possibility that Murray is about to play his final season in Dallas. If that’s the case and Dunbar is able to have a healthy, productive season, we could be talking about Dunbar as the lead back for the Cowboys going into 2015.
As for this season, the latest word out of Dallas suggests Dunbar could be in line for an expanded role in the Cowboys’ offense. Multiple reports from training camp have indicated he’s been the star of camp and head coach Jason Garrett as well as Linehan have raved about what Dunbar and his potential in their offense. The team went as far as holding him out of their first preseason game in order to ensure his health which is a sign that they have big plans for Dunbar even while Murray is around and healthy.
Earlier, I pointed out that depending on talent, Linehan will spread touches out between the tailbacks both on the ground and through the air. While Murray is a very good back and has skills that Linehan will take advantage of, Dunbar probably has better hands than Murray and is a far superior athlete when it comes to making defenders miss on the perimeter of the defense, making him an ideal change-of-pace and third down back for the Cowboys.
If you’re on board with Dunbar taking over the role as the pass catching tailback for Linehan, keep in mind that the Cowboys defense looks like one of the worst in the league. So when Dallas finds themselves behind due to their awful defense, don’t be surprised if Dunbar gets a lot more work than most are expecting as they try to play catch up.
Currently being selected as the 59th running back in dynasty startups at number 170 overall according to the latest ADP data gathered by Ryan McDowell, Dunbar is being taken as an RB5 and is primarily looked at as a handcuff to Murray by most fantasy owners. Because he’s the obvious handcuff and has gained a lot of buzz this off-season, he’s owned in nearly every dynasty league but that shouldn’t stop you from trying to acquire him, especially if you’re in a PPR league. His ADP suggests that the price of trading for him shouldn’t be very high and now may be the last time to get him at his current price.
Lance Dunbar is still a sleeper, but not for long.
Follow me on Twitter: @dmeylor22
- League Tycoon: Dynasty Salary Cap Fantasy Football - December 15, 2023
- Final Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Wide Receivers, Part Two - March 22, 2023
- 2023 NFL Scouting Combine: Offensive Player Dynasty Review - March 10, 2023
