The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

charles

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1. I am in a very deep 16-team, PPR dynasty league. Going into our fifth year I am ready to make a run at a title after finishing 12-1 last year and losing in the  conference final after piling up injuries to the core of my team. Running back is my weakness, and I currently have a trade offer on the table for Jamal Charles, who may be the key to my push to a championship. I’d receive Jamal Charles, Sam Bradford, Tyler Eifert and third and fourth round picks in 2015. I’d be giving Teddy Bridgewater, Roy Helu, TY Hilton, Eric Ebron and two 2015 1st round picks. Is this a good deal for me?Paul in British Columbia

16-team leagues (and larger formats in general) are a horse of a different color. Acquiring studs is the name of the game, as the point differential between the top-end options and lower-tier players can be quite pronounced. To that point, consider the following table that utilizes data from the 2013 season.

mailbagchart

In summation, the elite options blow the lower tier options out of the water, even though every listing in the table is considered a QB1/RB1/WR1/TE1. Without a strong stable of studs, these larger league formats are incredibly difficult to win. As such, I applaud your consideration of going for the gold.

Getting Charles on your roster does exactly that. Yes, he’ll be 28 soon, but I’m of the belief that a player of his caliber (never a season under 5.0 YPC) and relatively light workload (1,278 career touches, including playoffs) could be one of those exceptions to the “avoid aging running backs” rule. Combining that with the depth of your league, it’s unsurprising you’ll need to pay a tidy sum to obtain his services.

And while I think you are definitively overpaying, it’s not egregious. Charles is the jewel of the deal, and Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert is arguably the third best asset. I’d like to see you change one of those first round picks to a second rounder, or perhaps remove the quarterbacks from the equation, but all in all this is a championship-making trade for you.

2. In my 12-man, non-PPR league we are keeping six players this year.  I have a very good team, but am struggling to pick six out of this group: Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, AJ Green, Josh Gordon, Jimmy Graham, Matt Stafford and DeMarco Murray. We start two running backs, two receivers and a RB/WR FLEX, and I’m leaning towards Bryant, Green, Thomas, Charles, Forte and Graham.  Am I crazy to let Josh Gordon go?Barry in WI

First and foremost I’d like to congratulate you on what was undoubtedly a 2013 championship! This roster is absolutely loaded, and your dilemma can easily be qualified as a “good problem to have.” Now for my two cents on a potential solution…

I think the two immediate throwaways are Lions quarterback Matt Stafford and Browns receiver Josh Gordon. Quarterbacks are a dime a dozen in smaller formats, and you’ll certainly be able to grab a serviceable signal caller at any point in the draft. As to Gordon, no you’re not crazy – simply put, he might not play this year and you have better options. Toss him back!

[inlinead]My only qualm with your idea is I’d want to find a way to hang onto Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray. In a non-PPR format running backs are King, and in just 14 games last season Murray put up 207.2 fantasy points, which compares favorably to the outputs of Bengals receiver AJ Green (208.6 points) and Dallas pass catcher Dez Bryant (203.0 points). Behind arguably the best offensive line in the league Murray is set to break out, and in my opinion is your best FLEX option.

This means you need to say goodbye to a receiver, and despite the blasphemous nature of this opinion I think you should part with Green. Yes, he has sublime natural talent but unbeknownst to most he was largely volume dependent last season. Given the divergent natures of the Cincy and Dallas passing offenses, I’d rather bank on Bryant having a huge year (including a possible increase upon last season’s 13 scores), and would pair him with Demaryius Thomas to round out your receiving corps.

3. I’m in a 14-team PPR keeper league, where we keep six offensive players and one offensive rookie from the previous year. My keepers this year are, Cam Newton, Andre Ellington (my rookie keeper), Christine Michael, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb, Jordan Cameron and Joique Bell. I feel good about my chances in 2015 if/when Michael becomes the starter, hopefully, but what do I do this year with my pick at 1.05? It’s a combined rookie and free agent draft and Toby Gerhart represents a whole lot of value here. My problem is I probably won’t be able to keep him for 2015, whereas I could roster a rookie for “free” if I select him. Given this, should I go with Gerhart or a rookie?Mads in Denmark

Jaguars running back Toby Gerhart represents one of dynasty’s biggest dilemmas. Many are weary of his ability to shoulder the load, since he really hasn’t been asked to do so since college. This same faction wonders if his efficiency, aided largely by a third-down role in Minnesota, will suffer with increased usage and an arguably lesser supporting cast in Jacksonville.

Proponents point to his college usage, as well as his performance when Vikings starter Adrian Peterson was injured (4.4 YPC in games with at least 15 carries). He also brings with him soft hands, helping things in a PPR format. Finally, volume is volume – nearly every running back who can approach 300 touches carries some amount of value, right?

For my part I fall somewhere in between. I like him more as a RB2 or FLEX type player, and it’s a veritable certainty he can help you in 2013. However, you already have (my personal favorite) Andre Ellington, as well as Detroit’s Joique Bell, so it’s not as if you’re hurting in a 14-team league.

Coupling with that the fact you can keep a rookie for “free” in 2015 should you choose to utilize your pick in that manner, I think I’d go young. Player like Bishop Sankey or Carlos Hyde should be available, and each offers value as soon as this year. Gerhart is a good player to have, but your current roster and unique league settings would make me pass here.

4. In a 10-team startup league I have the pick 1.02 and was wondering if I should go with Jimmy Graham? My thinking on Graham is I could follow with 2-3 more receivers, then a quarterback and finally go young at running back in the later rounds. My thinking is to go for a “Zero RB” strategy, but I don’t know if I’m nuts or not. Thoughts?Vic in NY

Unless it’s a tight end premium league, I think this is a bit early to roll with Graham. Though he’s currently viewed as the top positional options, and has even crept into the middle to late first round in the majority of draft settings, I think you can use your draft capital more wisely. To that end, let’s consider the August ADP data.

If you went with Graham at pick 1.02, you’re now looking at the receiver tier containing guys like Antonio Brown (best case scenario), Jordy Nelson, Sammy Watkins, Michael Floyd and Cordarrelle Patterson. These are promising players with differing levels of success, but it’s no great leap to suggest they don’t possess the upside of the “Big Five” receivers. Graham is arguably the game’s biggest mismatch, but you’d absolutely be sacrificing upside at other positions.

Instead, why not look to snag a receiver in round one, followed by New England tight end Rob Gronkowski (current ADP = 17.8) in the second? Sure, Gronk’s injury history is one of fantasy’s worst kept secrets, but the fact he’s actually better than Graham on a per-game basis constantly flies under the radar. I’d much prefer this route, and if you have to move up a few spots to snag him, so be it.

As to your overall strategy, I have no qualms with your “Zero RB” approach. There’s room for all viewpoints in dynasty, and punting ball carriers in startup drafts is decidedly en vogue right now. Loading up on pass catchers and early-round quarterbacks should theoretically increase the longevity of your team, and if you can nail a few of your late-round picks you should be golden for years to come.

5. I pick seventh in a touchdown-heavy scoring, non-PPR league (six points per touchdown, one per every 25 yards). I need a running back worse than a receiver, but running backs tend to go early in my league and I expect at least Bishop Sankey, Carlos Hyde and possibly Jeremy Hill to be gone. Would I be better off with a non-rookie like Khiry Robinson or Toby Gerhart, or would taking a guy like Odell Beckham, Davante Adams or even maybe Kelvin Benjamin make sense given the scoring?Chris in OH

While your scoring system certainly makes ball carriers more valuable, I still think you need to take a “best player available” type of approach. I’d love to grab one of the high-end rookie running backs, but if they’re gone Gerhart isn’t a bad pick here. With that said, even though you don’t need receivers I’d hard to ignore Panthers rookie Kelvin Benjamin – given his size and red-zone prowess he could very well be the highest scoring rookie pass catcher in your league, potentially presenting excellent trade value in the future.

6. I am in a 10 team, half-PPR 2QB league where passing touchdowns are worth six points. I can keep four players and am torn between Keenan Allen and Tony Romo. Allen could be a stud for the next 12 years, but quarterbacks in this league are very hard to come by. What are your thoughts? David from Parts Unknown

I’m higher on Chargers receiver Keenan Allen than most, and believe he could very well be primed to join the league’s elite pass catchers sooner rather than later. With that said, quarterbacks are gold in leagues where you have the ability to start multiple signal callers. Tony Romo is no spring chicken, but he’s a dark horse to threaten for top five numbers at the position – he’s my choice here.

7. I have the 11th pick in a startup draft in a couple weeks. My problem is that there is a drop-off between the top 10 players and everyone else. Who is a player that you’d feel comfortable drafting once Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, AJ Green, Demaryius Thomas, Jimmy Graham, LeSean McCoy, Julio Jones, Alshon Jeffery, Jamaal Charles and Eddie Lacy are gone?Bob in MO

There are a couple players I’ve mentioned already who I think could fit this role nicely. Rob Gronkowski is, in my opinion, the best tight end option available when healthy, and I wouldn’t hesitate to use a late first or early second round pick on him given the positive reports of his recovery. Keenan Allen is another, and I actually have him ranked one spot above the Bears’ Alshon Jeffery in my personal rankings. If you’re not satisfied with either of these two guys, I’d simply look to trade back into the mid-to-late second round, as the next tier of players presents numerous suitable options.

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eric hardter