Rookie Value Report Card

Rob Pitzer

cooks

It’s been three months since DLF’s first post-draft rookie ADP numbers were released for the class of 2014, and with today’s release of the August ADPs I thought I’d take a look at the three month changes.

The percentages are simply (May’s ADP – August’s ADP)/May’s ADP. So a rookie who started at 100 and is now at 80 and someone who started at 200 and is at 160 today would both register as +20%:

    1. Brandin Cooks 41.0%
    2. Sammy Watkins 36.6%
    3. James White3 6.4%
    4. Terrance West 31.0%
    5. Andre Williams 28.8%
    6. John Brown 27.5%
    7. Kelvin Benjamin 20.0%
    8. Jeremy Hill 19.4%
    9. Bishop Sankey 19.1%
    10. Jerick McKinnon 17.3%
    11. Jordan Matthews 17.0%
    12. Josh Huff 12.7%
    13. Cody Latimer 12.5%
    14. Devonta Freeman 12.4%
    15. Charles Sims 11.2%
    16. CJ Fiedorowicz 10.1%
    17. Carlos Hyde 8.3%
    18. Davante Adams 5.5%
    19. Jeff Janis 4.3%
    20. Jarvis Landry 4.3%
    21. Marqise Lee 3.7%
    22. Teddy Bridgewater 2.4%
    23. Albert Wilson 1.4%
    24. Zach Mettenberger 0.9%
    25. Michael Campanaro 0.7%
    26. Lorenzo Taliaferro 0.0%
    27. Logan Thomas -0.6%
    28. TJ Jones -0.8%
    29. Mike Evans -1.9%
    30. De’Anthony Thomas -2.1%
    31. AC Leonard -2.5%
    32. Henry Josey -2.7%
    33. Austin Seferian -2.9%
    34. Dri Archer -3.7%
    35. Blake Bortles -4.3%
    36. James Wilder -6.3%
    37. Shaquelle Evans-6.8%
    38. Derek Carr-7.6%
    39. Donte Moncrief-7.8%
    40. Ka’Deem Carey-7.9%
    41. Paul Richardson-8.0%
    42. Marion Grice -10.1%
    43. Bruce Ellington-10.4%
    44. Jace Amaro -12.2%
    45. Jeremy Gallon -12.3%
    46. Brandon Coleman -13.3%
    47. Robert Herron -13.5%
    48. Troy Niklas -14.8%
    49. Eric Ebron -15.8%
    50. Allen Robinson -16.2%
    51. Storm Johnson -16.5%
    52. Martavis Bryant -18.7%
    53. Johnny Manziel -19.5%
    54. Odell Beckham -20.4%
    55. Jared Abbrederis -22.0%
    56. Colt Lyerla -23.5%
    57. Tre Mason -28.5%
    58. Isaiah Crowell -34.9%
    59. Lache Seastrunk -36.1%

A quick observation or two…

The average change for the entire class is almost exactly 0%. Which means that, on average, there have been as many fallers as risers. This is interesting for a couple reasons. One, it suggests that there is no general increase in the value of rookies after the draft. At least for this class so far the changes are almost entirely driven by new information.

And the changes look like they’re normally distributed, too. If you’re a nerd like me that’s pretty cool and could make future tracking and comparison with other classes easier.

It’s also a win for my models so far. Of the eight players I drafted multiple times in money leagues because I thought they were good prospects and good value at their ADPs, five are in the top 13 on that list — Cooks, West, McKinnon, Huff and Latimer have all had significant moves upward. Two, Janis and Archer, are roughly where they started. And Garoppolo, a long-term stash if ever there was one, is not ranked. West and McKinnon are especially nice hits since I drafted them in almost every league.

Of course it’s early and much will change over the coming months and years, so I’ll track the data over time and update this list periodically.

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