Summer Sleeper: AFC West IDPs
So far this summer, the focus on sleepers here at DLF has been on the offensive side of the ball. Eric Olinger and I are going to be rolling out IDP summer sleepers across the conferences over the next few weeks. As always, these sleepers will be of varying levels – some of the stash variety and others who could breakout in 2014.
As we’ve highlighted previously, scheme changes, coaching changes and position changes can significantly alter IDP value and present arbitrage opportunities for owners. Based on those items and training camp thus far, here are some AFC North sleepers:
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Denver
Lamin Barrow, MLB
Barrow was selected in the fifth round by the Broncos after his senior year at LSU. He’s a 6’1”, 237 pound thumper with sound tackling technique. He is also a versatile player who can play the outside as well as the middle. With the Broncos he’ll be asked to focus on the middle linebacker spot to eventually fill the vacated role of Wesley Woodyard who departed for the Tennessee Titans in free agency. He’s currently third on the depth chart behind ho-hum veterans Nate Irving and Steven Johnson. Early reports out of training camp have been increasingly positive. He has worked his way through the rookie jitters and caught the eye of defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio, especially in goal line drills. He caused a fumble when he was able to strip the ball out Virgil Green’s hands and the defensive unit was able to fall on it. Del Rio stated, “He’s getting better every day. If you looked at the first day of practice and you looked at (Friday), you’d go ‘Wow, he doesn’t even look like the same guy.’ He’s progressing, and we just have to see how far we can bring him.”
Barrow has some work to do to crack the starting lineups of the Broncos and fantasy IDP squads alike, but the talent in front of him isn’t elite and he’s trending upward. He won’t be an every down linebacker either, coming off the field on passing downs while Von Miller and Danny Trevathan run in the nickel package, but he’s worth a stash.
Kansas City
Dee Ford, OLB
At first glance it’s difficult to figure out where Ford’s playing time will come from on a team with two Pro Bowl outside linebackers in Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, but looking closer it is clear the Chiefs have a plan. When you play Peyton Manning twice a year you need all the pass rush ammo you can get. Last season the Chiefs defense started out as an elite unit racking up crazy sack totals from the outside linebacker position, Hali and Houston had a combined 20 sacks entering their week ten bye. Hali only registered two more sacks on the season and was far less effective when Houston went down with an elbow injury. Hali was also nursing an ankle injury of his own but played through. Ford is also an insurance policy for Houston beyond 2014, the final year of his rookie deal. He checks in at 6’2” and 252 pounds and a 4.59 second 40-yard dash time. He won’t be anything more than a situational pass rusher as a rookie but could flirt with 8-10 sacks in the Chiefs blitz heavy attack, especially if Dontari Poe can be effective from the nose tackle position.
Oakland
LaMarr Woodley, DE
I know it’s hard to consider someone who has 56.5 sacks over a seven year career a sleeper, but he’ll be playing defensive end for the first time since entering the league after being an pass rushing outside linebacker. When you look around the NFL nowadays, there are so many 3-4 defensive units it is difficult to find difference making 4-3 defensive ends. According to RotoWorld’s depth charts, 16 of the 32 NFL teams will use a base 3-4 defense this season. This means having an elite defensive end with high sack potential will be critical to IDP success and unless you’re J.J. Watt, it almost always comes from the 4-3 defensive ends.
The Raiders have made a serious effort in upgrading their defensive unit this offseason by adding Woodley, Justin Tuck, Tarrell Brown, Carlos Rogers and drafting Kahlil Mack. It’s often difficult to get past the punch line when talking about the Raiders, but their defense could surprise if they can get solid play from the cornerback position. A pass rusher’s best friend is a solid coverage unit behind him. If Woodley and Tuck can get just a couple extra seconds they could definitely outperform their current ADP. I am very comfortable having either one as my DE2 in 2014.
San Diego
Jason Verrett, CB
Not a knock on Jason Verrett, but he is going to be baptized by fire this season. Not only are rookie corners tested on a weekly basis by opposing quarterbacks, but when a rookie is a team’s unquestioned number one corner in a division with Peyton Manning, he is going to get tested until he proves he belongs. The more targets he sees, the more opportunity he will get to make a big play and/or tackle opportunities. Even though he’ll face Manning and the Broncos twice, he’ll also get the suddenly interception prone Matt Schaub, too.
One of my favorite IDP strategies is to never invest heavily into corner backs. I have often referred to them as the “kickers of IDP” because the supply far exceeds the demand and you can easily stream them from week to week and season to season. For these reasons I will have Verrett on a lot of my fantasy squads this season. His ability to cover and make plays on the ball were arguably the best in the 2014 draft class. That’s good because he’s going to have to be able to cover for an extended period of time because the Chargers lack a pass rush. Now he’ll be in a position to fill up the stat sheet for the San Diego Chargers and fantasy squads alike.
Follow me on Twitter @OlingerIDP.
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