Final Rookie Mock Draft: Round Three

Jacob Feldman

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The wonderful month of August is finally here – that means the long football drought is finally over! Training camps have begun, preseason games are underway and we are only a few weeks away from the regular season kicking off and fantasy football matches beginning. It is a wonderful time where almost every owner thinks their team has what it takes to make that next step.

The new crop of rookies are a major part of that hope for a lot of owners. Unfortunately, the statistics are not in the favor of anyone who is being overly reliant on them since the vast majority of these youngsters are going to bust. However, we also know there will be a handful of them who will turn into the next fantasy stars. In order to help those of you with late rookie drafts or those of you engaging in trade talks, our writers are back with one final writers only rookie mock draft.

Here is a quick refresher on the guidelines given to our drafters before each mock begins:

  1. Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
  2. Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
  3. Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need

Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. From time to time we will disagree on a player, and that’s perfectly okay. There is no group think here at DLF and sometimes we get widely different opinions on players. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong. It happens!

We continue with a look at the third and final round of the mock draft. At this point in time, the names should all be familiar to you if you’ve been paying attention during the spring and summer months. The third round of this draft is an interesting mix of guys who were once much more highly regarded and are falling combined with those who are rising fast. Some of these guys could easily sneak into the second round if your league buys into media hype a lot.

3.01 – Isaiah Crowell, RB CLE

Jaron’s thoughts: With uninspiring options at this point in the draft, I’ll gladly take the player with the most upside. Talent-wise, Crowell may be the best running back in the class. The off-the-field issues are overblown, especially in comparison with some of the transgressions of other rookies that haven’t been nearly as publicized and though he’s an undrafted free agent, the Browns have mixed him right in with Ben Tate and Terrance West in OTAs. At 3.01, the boom potential (even with the equally high bust potential) is worth the risk.

My thoughts: The debate over the Cleveland backfield has been raging for months. When Tate was signed, we thought we had an answer, but the drafting of West and the free agent signing of Crowell threw everyone for a loop. I think all signs are pointing towards Crowell being the third stringer at this point. He might be the best pure runner in this draft, but there are questions about his desire and work ethic which might hold him back. He’s a good flier, but don’t reach for him before the third round.

3.02 – Paul Richardson, WR SEA

Russell’s thoughts: Richardson is my WR5 in this draft class. I love getting him here. While most are scared of by his size or concentration drops, I’m choosing to look past his initial flaws and take in the bigger picture. Richardson was a high second round pick to a team that’s been extremely successful with drafting in recent years. He was an extremely productive college receiver and also runs in the mid 4.3s. You won’t find a better value in rookie drafts this season. Richardson is the real deal.

My thoughts: I think Russell and I will need to agree to disagree on this one. I think it is crazy to have Richardson in your top five or top 10. I actually have him as my WR18 with the rest of our rankers (other than Russell) having him between twelve and sixteen at the position. When I look at Richardson, I see a short straight line burner with a very slim build and sometimes questionable hands. I don’t know if he has the skill set and build to be an NFL starter, let alone a fantasy starter in Seattle’s low volume passing attack. I’m just not a fan. He’s my least favorite of the third round selections.

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3.03 – Blake Bortles, QB JAX

Karl’s thoughts: With Johnny Manziel still left on the board, I opted to select Bortles. I don’t believe Manziel is built for long term success, while Bortles has size and tools to become a fantasy signal caller for many years. Not only am I excited about the potential for Bortles, I love what Jaguars General Manager Dave Caldwell has done in the draft. Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee could add to an already talented, yet oft-absent receiving corps.

My thoughts: As I mentioned when talking about Bridgewater, I don’t see any quarterback in this draft with QB1 fantasy upside. For that reason, I’m probably not drafting any quarterbacks this year unless it is a superflex or 2QB league. I’m not saying they are worthless, just that I would much rather have someone of the veterans than these rookies. With Bortles, I like the size and arm, I just question if he has the mental agility to be a top quarterback in fantasy leagues.

3.04 – Andre Williams, RB NYG

Scott P’s thoughts: I love taking Andre Williams at 3.04. I hear a lot of talk that he can’t catch, but it’s not unusual for college running backs to be deficient in this area, only to improve as a receiver in the NFL. Great character, size/strength, workhorse running back. He is a Coughlin-type player. Rashad Jennings is old for a running back and has a long injury history. Sadly, I don’t believe David Wilson will have a long career with his neck injury. Williams could be the starter for the Giants sooner than most believe.

My thoughts: Scott made this pick and did his write up before the David Wilson re-injury was announced, so he hit the nail on the head there! Williams is going to be a very interesting player to watch. He’s a great pick in the third round because we know he is going to have a role. He’s already established as the short yardage/goal-line back in their offense as long as he can hold on to the ball. If he proves himself in that role, he could see more work. Jennings is a short term fix for the position and we know the Giants love to run the ball. I don’t think Williams will ever be the guy, but he could be part of a committee for years to come.

3.05 – John Brown, WR ARI

Brian’s thoughts: The small school product out of Pittsburg St. was a third round pick for Bruce Arians. Brown is getting comps like TY Hilton and has been mentioned as being “uncoverable” in camp thus far. He has a good chance to the starting slot receiver with only Ted Ginn Jr to beat out for the start. John Brown knows how to blow the top off the defense and has been listed as having “better route running than we thought he had” by Bruce Arians. Even at age 24, Brown is gaining a lot of steam in dynasty drafts and is someone to keep an eye on in later rounds of a startup.

My thoughts: Brown is someone I’ve been targeting in most of my leagues over the last few months. If you ignore his size (5’10”, 179 pounds) he’s one of the more physically gifted receivers in this draft class. Like most small receivers, I have concerns about how he’ll handle contact and press coverage once the pads come on, but he does have a lot of talent. My main reservation on Brown is opportunity. The Cardinals are lacking a solution to their long term quarterback issues, limiting fantasy production to one or at most two targets. Unless Larry Fitzgerald moves on in 2015, Brown isn’t going to have a chance to be one of the top two.

3.06 – James White, RB NE

Jeff M’s thoughts: In all the drafts I’ve done this year (mock and otherwise), I’ve yet to take three running backs in any, much less with my first three picks. The way this draft broke down, I really didn’t have much choice, as no other position offered much at any of my picks. With White specifically, I snagged one of my pet players in this draft. I wrote much longer about him for our Summer Sleeper series, but the gist is he stands to be the guy in New England in 2015. With his well rounded skill set, fantasy goodness in the form of multiple top-15 seasons is sure to follow.

My thoughts: This is another third round pick I love. White isn’t a top tier talent by any means; however, he is above average in just about every area, including pass protection and especially ball security. Lucky for him, those are two skills the Patriots place a high value on. He’s already seeing a role in the New England offense and starting to push the current starters for snaps. The opportunities for White will only grow as time goes on and while I don’t know about multiple top 15 seasons, White is in a spot to have a shot to be a solid RB2 in 2015 and beyond.

3.07 – Jarvis Landry, WR MIA

James’s thoughts: Believe it or not, there was a time when former LSU teammates Landry and Odell Beckham were very similarly-ranked prospects and it was just personal preference of whether you wanted the speedster or the tough guy. Then the combine happened and suddenly Landry was forgotten (if he can’t run fast in shorts, he can’t play football, right?) – but I haven’t forgotten you Jarvis. Words can’t describe how sensational Landry’s hands are, and his ability combined with an underwhelming receiver depth chart in Miami mean there is a great chance for him to be an immediate star.

My thoughts: I’ve never been too high on Landry (though I do like him more than Richardson). I think his skill set profiles as a very average possession receiver in the NFL. While this is highly important for an NFL team, it normally doesn’t lead to fantasy relevance. I think Landry is destined to be one of those guys who is a better pro player than a fantasy player. I view his upside as being fairly limited, which means I’m going to let someone else take a shot on him in the third.

3.08 – Johnny Manziel, QB CLE

Dan’s thoughts: I really wanted to see Patriots tailback James White slip to me in the third round, but it wasn’t to be. Once he was gone, I started looking for a potential difference maker and the only one left was Manziel. Many (including myself) wonder about his off the field antics and how they could affect his play but late in the third round he’s easily worth the risk.

My thoughts: Every few years a wildcard like Manziel comes along. No one really knows how his game is going to transition to the NFL. He was without a doubt one of the best playmakers in college football over the last decade. That was against smaller, slower, and less skilled defenders than he will face in the NFL. Will he still be able to be Johnny Football when the level of competition steps up? I think he’s more likely to fail in the NFL, but if he can get some nice running numbers he could be a fantasy asset while it lasts, much like Tim Tebow was for a brief period.

3.09 – Bruce Ellington, WR SF

My thoughts: I’m a little bias since this was my selection, but I love Ellington as a third round pick. He’s my WR13 in this draft and just barely outside my top 25 rookies overall. If it wasn’t for the situation, he would be much, much higher than that. Playing wide receiver for the 49ers isn’t a recipe for fantasy success. Over the last few years, the 49ers have had one of if not the least productive passing games in the league. They can support one target at a time, maybe two but that’s about it. With Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, and Vernon Davis in the loop there really isn’t any room for anyone else. Bolding and Davis are nearing the ends of their careers and Crabtree is a free agent after the year, so the opportunity for the patient owner is going to be there. It just might not be until 2015 or 2016.

Once he gets the opportunity, what can Ellington do with it? Ellington is definitely short at 5’9”, but he is extremely thick, even more so than guys like Steve Smith and Percy Harvin, so I’m not overly concern about his ability to hold up. If you were to put Ellington into a group with everyone who has been a WR2 or better in fantasy leagues over the last four years, Ellington would be in the top two percent of that group when it comes to agility and acceleration. Combine that with extreme leaping ability and great straight line speed and you definitely have someone with the skill set to excel in the NFL.

3.10 – Richard Rodgers, TE GB

Ghost’s thoughts: I have no problem taking a player this late who looks to be stepping in as a starter on the high powered Green Bay offense on day one. No brainer!

My thoughts: I’m much less certain Rodgers is going to be the starting tight end for the Packers this year. He did make a lot of noise during OTAs, but I think that was more a product of the situation than anything else. Almost every other tight end of note for the Packers was absent from OTAs, forcing Rodgers into service with the first team. With training camp underway, Rodgers hasn’t been the top player at the position. I also don’t think he is the most talented pass catcher of the bunch. There is a reason the vast majority of people weren’t very excited when the Packers drafted him. Is there a chance he’s the answer? Of course there is. I think it is pretty small, though.

3.11 – Jerick McKinnon, RB MIN

Eric H’s thoughts: It’s the end of the third round in a medium-sized format which means the pickings are relatively slim. Given that, I look for players who are unlikely to have any immediate impact, but offer enough physical tools to make some noise down the road. McKinnon is exactly that – a combine freak who will have to wait his turn behind our generation’s best running back, but can hopefully put his skills to use in a few years.

My thoughts: To put the “combine freak” phrase into context, McKinnon had one of (if not the best) combines ever for a running back – better than Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart and Christine Michael. The physical gifts McKinnon possesses are extreme. There is no way to deny that. The issue is he doesn’t really know how to play the running back position and might not have the mentality for it. He was a read-option quarterback for most of his high school and college career and runs the ball a little bit like a quarterback. In other words, even though he has the extreme strength and agility, he tends to go down on first contact. If he can learn to play the position from one of the best ever, he could be a major find for the Vikings and your fantasy team.

3.12 – Jeff Janis, WR GB

Eric O’s thoughts: I’ll take the gamble on Janis’ insane measurables with the 36th rookie selection. Even though he’s raw and buried on a very talented depth chart, the Packers have done more with less. Even though Jordy Nelson recently signed a contract extension to theoretically retire a Packer and the team’s selection of fellow rookie Davante Adams, we’ve seen a high octane offense can never have enough pass catchers. There wasn’t anyone else available with as much upside as Janis.

My thoughts: I still think the Packers will be re-signing Randall Cobb, locking in their top two pass catchers for several more years and limiting the upside of anyone else. I also think Janis is likely to be no better than fifth on the depth chart for 2014. With that said, Eric is dead on when he talks about upside. Janis has size, speed and extreme agility. Given Green Bay’s tendency to build from within, I think it is just a matter of time before Janis gets his chance to see the field. When he does, defenses better watch out. It could be a multiple year wait though before he gets his chance.

This is it for our most recent rooke mock draft. Injuries, training camp practices and pre-season game performances will of course make things change very quickly over the next few weeks. Players will continue to slide up and down draft boards, in some cases taking huge leaps, but hopefully this helps you get a snapshot of our thoughts as of the first week of training camp and prior to the pre-season games. Good luck to those of you who haven’t drafted yet!

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jacob feldman