Dynasty Deep Dive: Rookie and Veteran RB Evaluation

After breaking down the lifecycle of a running back, its evolution over time and the rules we have created to evaluate the position in this experiment; let’s put it into practice. Part three will take a look at rookie running backs and assess their long-term prospects based on the data we’ve shared. Opportunity plays an integral part of running back performance, but that can fluctuate easily. This exercise is to focus on which running backs will thrive if they receive the opportunity to play, based solely on the data I’ve shared thus far.

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Rookies

Bishop Sankey, RB TEN

The first running back chosen in the draft was also one of college’s most productive. Sankey accumulated nearly 400 fantasy points his last college season at Washington including 28 catches, showing an aptitude in the passing game. Additionally, he tested well at the combine as his 4.49 time in the 40-yard dash put him in good company. Sankey profiles as a solid fantasy contributor who will have starter potential for at least three seasons and fantasy relevance for seven to eight years supplemented by 40-50 catches annually. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: High

Jeremy Hill, RB CIN

Picked just after Sankey, Jeremy Hill was drafted in the hopes he would provide relief to last year’s second round pick, Gio Bernard. The LSU alum was moderately successful in college but was limited as a pass catcher and doesn’t profile as a receiving back. Hill also timed slow in the 40-yard dash (4.66) – that does not translate well in the NFL. Likely, he ends up as a rosterable back for a few years, poaching some touchdowns and adding around twenty catches before proving his ineffectiveness against NFL defenses. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Low

Carlos Hyde, RB SF
Once thought to be a potential first round pick, Carlos Hyde slipped to the 49ers at the 57^th pick of the draft. Hyde profiles similarly to Jeremy Hill as a slower (4.66 40-yard dash) back with limited receiving skills (never surpassed 20 catches in a college season). His college performance profiles as a back with some relevance as a professional, but these numbers show he may never evolve into a fantasy starter. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Low

Charles Sims, RB TB

The first back picked in the third round, Charles Sims enters a crowded backfield. On the plus side, Sims has the buy-in of the new coaching staff as he is the only one hand selected by the new regime. While his college stats left something to be desired, Sims did show a tremendous feel in the passing game which should translate to 50+ catches annually. Additionally, his speed (4.48 40-yard dash) indicates the potential for a few great seasons. Sims’ floor is a specialist focused on passing downs with his upside mirroring a solid second running back. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Medium

Tre Mason, RB STL

A somewhat surprising pick by the Rams, Mason walks into a situation where Zac Stacy once looked secure. Despite Mason only having one year of starting experience at Auburn, he made it count with high-level production that translates well to the NFL. He has good speed (4.5 40-yard dash), but did not show much in the passing game with just 12 catches last year. If Mason can hurdle Stacy, expect him to be a bigger asset in non-PPR leagues while becoming a fringe starting option in reception heavy scoring formats. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Medium

Terrance West, RB CLE

A Towson alum, Terrance West joins a Cleveland backfield in upheaval. Unfortunately, small school stats do not always translate to the NFL, so little can be assessed from those numbers. That being said, West put up nearly 3,000 yards of total offense. Fringe speed (4.54 40-yard dash) and mediocre receiving stats show little more than a future fantasy backup. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Low

Jerick McKinnon, RB MIN

Another small school running back, Jerick McKinnon goes from Georgia Southern to Adrian Peterson’s backup in Minnesota. McKinnon flashed a lot of speed (4.41 40-yard dash) but struggled to stay healthy in his last college season. The numbers show he has the looks of a change of pace back who finds a spot at the end of a large roster. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Low

Dri Archer, RB PIT

A surprising pick for the smash-mouth Steelers, Dri Archer brings a weapon that Pittsburgh has never possessed. Combining lightning speed (4.26 40-yard dash) with 40+ catch potential and elite-level college production; Archer has high potential in PPR leagues and flex-level production in non-PPR formats. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Medium

Devonta Freeman, RB ATL

With Steven Jackson winding down in Atlanta, the Falcons spent an early fourth round pick on Devonta Freeman. The Florida State alum had moderate college success and was limited in the passing game. Fringe-level speed (4.58 40-yard dash) does not indicate much upside either. All these indicators show a player who will have a hard time if handed the job after Jackson retires. Much like West, this player is going to be very interesting to watch to see if they can break the mold. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Low

Andre Williams, RB NYG

The New York Giants are determined to move past David Wilson and Andre Williams was the man drafted to do it. Williams ran for over 2,000 yards at Boston College last year but wasn’t asked to catch even a single pass. Middling speed (4.56) indicates a lower likelihood of starter-level production, but he is capable of becoming a flex version of Michael Turner in non-PPR formats. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Medium

De’Anthony Thomas, RB KC

Drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs, De’Anthony Thomas is expected to replace the departing Dexter McCluster. Thomas’ college production was hurt by a lack of use but did still show solid receiving potential. A disappointing 40 time (4.5) tempers expectations as it is fair to wonder if his highlight playmaking at Oregon will translate. McCluster’s performance in KC seems like a justified outlook. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Low

James White, RB NE

Like clockwork, the New England Patriots managed to confuse fantasy players by adding James White not long after letting LaGarrette Blount go via free agency. White has shown himself to be a productive college player complete with surprising receiving skills (39 catches last year). He is not a burner (4.57 40-yard dash) and faces a lot of competition, but White is capable of carving out a useful niche in the early going with potential to be a backend fantasy starter. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Medium

New Starters

Here’s some added focus on some new starters, young backups and other running backs of interest.

Toby Gerhart, RB JAX

A former second round draft pick out of Stanford, Toby Gerhart finally gets his chance to step out of the shadow of Adrian Peterson and take a shot at starting in Jacksonville. His 4.55 speed does not do much to suggest a game changer, but he showed great ability in college as a high use back, something we can expect to continue. Gerhart’s receiving will likely be in the 20-30 catch range, but he will be able to handle a full workload for a few years. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Medium

Ben Tate, RB CLE

Another second round pick getting his shot to start somewhere new, Ben Tate looks to be the new featured back of the Cleveland Browns. He has the speed (4.43 40-yard dash) that suggests a high-level back, but Tate’s limited college production and inability to stay healthy will hold him back. Limited receiving ability doesn’t help his cause and he will likely do no better than a bye week fill-in. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Low

Lamar Miller, RB MIA

Despite the signing of Knowshon Moreno, Lamar Miller may be taking the starting job for the Miami Dolphins. Much like Tate, Miller has speed (4.40) to spare but little college production or receiving ability. The draft pedigree (fourth round) does not suggest a big breakout either. Despite his youth, he is backup fodder for the dynasty crowd. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Low

Christine Michael, RB SEA

A second round pick for the Seattle Seahawks, Christine Michael has looked the part with limited carries. He doesn’t have elite speed (4.54) or the college production with multiple leg injuries ending seasons short. It is not wise to expect much in the passing game, either. That being said, he showed elite athleticism in every other combine drill, so his speed may prove to be an exception to the running back rule. If given the chance, he will likely be a small step down from Marshawn Lynch’s production with Seattle for however long he stays healthy. I, for one, was not willing to risk it and have subsequently traded him off. Michael is proving to be the ultimate dynasty value lightning rod. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Medium

Knile Davis, RB KC

The only third round running back last year, Knile Davis is kind of the forgotten man as many of the backs chosen before him have significantly more buzz. Davis shouldn’t be discounted however given his speed (4.37 40-yard dash) and moderate college success. He also flashed better receiving skills than expected in college that should make him useful in that department. If given the chance to start, Davis would likely be a fringe weekly starter in fantasy leagues regardless of format. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Medium

Bernard Pierce, RB BAL

A third round pick in 2012 out of Temple, Bernard Pierce has an opportunity to impress while Ray Rice serves a two game suspension to start the season. Surprising speed (4.49) for a player his size, Pierce has the type of college pedigree that predicts strong returns. I think Pierce eventually takes this job from Rice and delivers weekly fantasy starter numbers for non-PPR leagues, flex potential for those in PPR. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: High

Joseph Randle/Lance Dunbar, RB DAL

The former is a 2013 fifth round pick from Oklahoma State while the latter was an undrafted free agent out of North Texas. Joseph Randle carries impressive college production with solid receiving ability but is slow (4.63), which is a red flag. Lance Dunbar has the quickness (4.47) you want to see and the elite receiving and college production that would suggest a strong future. Dunbar looks to be locked into the third down role while Randle won’t see time unless DeMarco Murray is out. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: Low (Randle), Medium (Dunbar)

Montee Ball, RB DEN

A second round pick last year out of Wisconsin, Montee Ball landed in the ideal place with the Denver Broncos. His subpar 40 time (4.66) caused him to slip some but his college production suggests a player that can fill the first running back slot for a fantasy team. His receiving ability leaves a little to be desired, but 30-40 catches is not out of the realm of possibility. Don’t expect long runs, but expect a heavy workload and a nose for the end zone. Dynasty/Keeper Potential: High

This concludes our look at the running back position by the numbers and it obviously yielded some surprising results. Stay tuned for the next installment focusing on wide receivers.

Is there a quarterback or running back you didn’t see evaluated? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @Rotohack.

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