Alternative Thinking

In the world of fantasy writing, you’re bound to find an author who likes any individual player. If you want to be convinced Sammy Watkins is the next elite wide receiver, there’s a writer who will satisfy your wish. If you believe Watkins will be a bust, there’s bound to be someone who has written an article agreeing with your idea.

How do you know who to listen to? The short answer is “everyone.”

I read articles on multiple different sites, even by authors who I traditionally disagree with. Our own Steve Wystremski recently wrote an article detailing the reasons he believes Keenan Allen will become a relative bust. Another one of the most intelligent dynasty minds in the business, Eric Hardter, loves the prospect of Andre Ellington becoming a star running back. I couldn’t disagree more with either premise and they’re on our own team here, but I still listen.

The trick to becoming a knowledgeable fantasy player is to read and research as much as possible. As I’ve said, I read articles which I know I’ll disagree with the moral, but I learn from them. You must be willing and able to consider all opinions in order to form your own.

I’ve been known to be extremely vocal in my support of some players. One thing I’m not accustomed to is expressing which players I dislike. Today I’ll look down the July ADP charts and find some guys whom I believe are being drafted far too highly. Rather than leave you with the information of who not to draft, I’ll give you an alternative player who could pay dividends on your dynasty roster.

Don’t take: Andrew Luck, QB IND (29.2); Aaron Rodgers QB GB (29.3)

I have both Luck and Rodgers ranked as my top two quarterbacks in dynasty. My dislike of these two players has little to do with their skill set or ranking relative to their position. I highly disapprove of drafting a quarterback in the early third round. Last year, I made the argument for passing on Rodgers to draft Matt Ryan. The strategy isn’t exclusive to two specific players, though. There are plenty of signal callers available in the middle rounds of drafts. Robert Griffin III, Ryan, Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson are all being drafted between rounds six and eight. The question isn’t which quarterbacks I’d prefer, it’s which quarterbacks I prefer at their price. I’ll take my future signal caller in round eight or later.

Do take: Percy Harvin, WR SEA (32.0)

“You mean the guy who’s injury prone?” You readers are so ruthless, I could hear your collective displeasure before I finished typing the previous sentence.

The truth is, Harvin has not experienced migraines since early in his career, his ankle which sidelined him in 2012 is fully healed and, by all accounts, his hip will not be a future issue.

“But he’s never gone over 1,000 receiving yards.”

Don’t forget about Harvin’s rushing ability. In 2011, Harvin ran the ball 52 times for 345 yards and two touchdowns. When you add those numbers to his receiving statistics, Harvin accumulated over 1,300 yards and eight touchdowns. In 2012, Harvin was on pace to surpass those numbers before injuring his ankle.

Take advantage of the public’s misconception of quarterback value and “injury proneness.” Draft a WR1 in the third round rather than a quarterback – the most replaceable position in fantasy football.

Don’t take: Trent Richardson, RB IND (49.2)

I’m as confused at Richardson’s ADP as I am at why kids enjoy Justin Bieber. I assume Bieber can at least hit the high notes. Richardson can barely break the line of scrimmage.

As I mentioned earlier, you’re bound to find people intelligent people who disagree with me. DLF’s own Eric Dickens ranks Richardson as his RB4, while Ryan McDowell and Jeff Beran rank him as their RB8. I think they’re all mad as a hatter.

Richardson has averaged 3.2 yards per carry since joining the league in 2012. He has more fumbles (5) than 20+ yard runs (3), and he’s never had a 40+ yard run. More alarming than Richardson’s statistics is his game film. He is indecisive at the line of scrimmage, doesn’t show an initial burst and does not appear to run inspired. Many will point to the short time span Richardson had to learn his new Colts playbook, which is a fair point. Not knowing the play, and not hitting an NFL-sized running lane are not the same thing. Richardson was not an NFL caliber starting running back in 2013, so if you’re buying him at his current price, you’re willing to bet he greatly improves as a runner. I’m not willing to take that bet.

The disconnect in Richardson’s value, I believe, comes from a fantasy bias. If we’re speaking strictly about PPR fantasy numbers, Richardson hasn’t been a horrible player. His ability to catch and find the endzone in his first two years, made him a viable commodity. Those attributes won’t necessarily save his job, though. While Richardson is currently adequate enough to plug into your starting fantasy lineup, if he doesn’t improve, he won’t even be in the Colts’ future lineup.

Do take: Justin Hunter, WR TEN (57.2)

[inlinead]If you’re like me, you’re doing a double take to check if I’m accurate in showing Hunter going a full eight spots after Richardson in dynasty drafts. It’s true. Many people who wanted to draft Richardson have an affinity for “upside.” I don’t blame them. The fifth round is a great spot for upside players. My fifth round target last year was Josh Gordon. In a sense, he was a great target in that range.

I believe Hunter gives you the same type of upside in the fifth round this year as Gordon did last year. I’m not saying Hunter will lead the league in receiving yards as a sophomore as Gordon did, but still.

Hunter is 6’4”, about 200 lbs and has great top end speed (4.44 40 yard dash). His accumulative stats were not overly impressive in 2013, but if you take a deeper look, Hunter was amazingly effective when used. He only caught 18 passes, but turned those passes into 354 yards and four touchdowns. If he can repeat his efficiency in 2014 by repeating his per catch numbers, but catch 4.5 passes per game, his per game state line will read 89 yards and one touchdown. Extrapolate those numbers over a season and Hunter’s stat line will read 1,424 yards and 16 touchdowns.

I’m obviously speaking in hypotheticals here, but when we’re talking about upside, Hunter has it. I’m not sure Richardson does.

Don’t take: Marvin Jones, WR CIN (114.3)

Jones has been a hot sleeper target by many this off-season. Even his price as a perceived sleeper is too rich for my blood. Outside of his fluky week eight game against the New York Jets last year, Jones has never caught more than six balls or accumulated more than 85 receiving yards in a single game. Even his 6/85/0 game came against a historically bad Vikings defense.

Let everyone chase the unique Jets performance. You’ll know who the real Jones is.

Do take: Jay Cutler, QB CHI (134.3)

This is a bit of a stretch since Jones is actually going almost two full rounds before Cutler, yet I still prefer the latter.

A quick look at the DLF league scoring tells an interesting story. If you combine Cutler’s 2013 fantasy points (212.85) with Josh McCown’s (157.75), they scored more than any quarterback not named Peyton Manning or Drew Brees. You read correctly, the Chicago Bears’ quarterbacks finished the season as the collective QB3 last season.

Another reason I love Cutler in this ADP area is you can pass on the Rodgers and Luck types early in the draft. Since Cutler is going in the fourteenth round, you can stock up on every other position with your first fifteen picks. The strategy seems like a no-brainer. Even if you wanted to gamble on a rookie quarterback such as Teddy Bridgewater earlier in the draft and let him sit a year or two, Cutler is the perfect stop gap in the interim.

As I said earlier, don’t trust any single writer to form your entire opinion. Ellington could be an All-Pro next year and Allen may never eclipse 1,000 yards again in his career. You must absorb all opinions and form your own. If I start to see Ellington appear as an elite back, it may be easier for me to move him up my rankings after reading Eric’s work. If Allen looks pedestrian, I may be quicker to cut the cord than I would had I not read Steve Wystremski’s article. There’s so many talented writers to learn from, especially at DLF. Do yourself a favor by researching them all!

Follow me on Twitter: @KarlSafchick

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