Summer Sleeper: Green Bay Packers
With training camps open around the NFL, we’re continuing our annual series focusing on a few sleepers from all 32 teams in the NFL. You can find all of the Summer Sleeper articles here.
These sleepers all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but all merit a little more talking about here in the Premium Content section. Some of these players are deep dynasty sleepers who could merit a spot on your bench in a deep league, while others are players who may contribute a little faster than the deep prospects, but deserve more attention than they may be getting. By definition, a sleeper could mean something a little different to everyone, but we’re simply doing the best job we can to unearth one player from each team who fits the category in some way, shape or form.
We’ll never insult you with a comprehensive list of “sleepers” which include such such dynasty mainstay names as Toby Gerhart, Christine Michael or Cordarrelle Patterson. You’re all too good for that.
While many of these players will undoubtedly fizzle, there’s more value in looking more closely at these deeper prospects and players. We invite you to keep an open mind and either or re-assess your value on those who may be rostered in your league or consider adding a few of these deeper prospects we focus on this Summer who are free agents in your league – after all, some are destined to pan out, too.
Feel free to add your own comments about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own!
Aaron Rodgers is going to approach 50 touchdown passes this year!
That last statement really isn’t that bold. After all, it’s a number that has been reached twice over the last seven years and has been flirted with many times over the last few seasons including once by Rodgers when he threw 45 in 2011.
Now, before you laugh and click away from this page, I’m not calling Rodgers a “Summer Sleeper.” I just want to point out that if you believe Rodgers has a chance to reach or even come close to tossing 50 touchdowns, there’s going to have be a sleeper coming out of Titletown in 2014 to catch some of them.
From a fantasy owner’s perspective, the Packers are loaded with offensive firepower. They feature one of the premier quarterbacks in football, two receivers who are regularly ranked among the top-12 in the game and a sophomore tailback who has already proven himself as an RB1 and could very well vault himself among the elite at the position if he’s able to repeat his rookie of the year numbers from the 2013.
It’s obvious that the Packers are once again going to supply fantasy owners with quality numbers in 2014 (as long as their quarterback stays healthy). But in order for Rodgers to throw that many touchdowns, somebody other than Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have to catch them.
Who’s it going to be, you ask?
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Jarrett Boykin, WR GB
While it’s true that Boykin is in no way a deep sleeper coming off a season where he caught 49 passes for 681 yards and three touchdowns, he’s still absolutely being overlooked this off-season by fantasy owners. He’s currently being selected in the round 12 (#142 overall) of dynasty startups as the 64th wide receiver (WR5) off the board. That’s too low for a player in his position.
Most likely, Boykin is being disregarded in dynasty drafts for two reasons – he doesn’t possess eye popping overall skills and the rest of the depth chart in Green Bay is full of youthful talent.
Boykin has good size (6’2”, 218 pounds) and is an above average route runner with fair speed, but he also has holes in his game. His hands are shaky at times and he’s limited to outside receiver duties due to his lack of agility which gives most fantasy owners pause when considering him. Even more troubling might be the fact the Packers drafted three receivers to compete with Boykin this past May, including second rounder Davante Adams, which certainly limits his long term appeal for dynasty owners.
With all that said, Boykin should still be on the radar of fantasy owners going into the season and to find out why, you have to look no further than the history the third wide receiver in Green Bay over the last couple seasons.
Officially, Boykin entered 2013 as the number four receiver behind Nelson, Cobb and James Jones, but when Cobb went down with an injury in week six against the Ravens and didn’t return until the final week of the regular season, he was thrust into the number three role.
On the season as a whole, Boykin played well and put up quality numbers considering he only played 10 of 289 snaps (3%) during the first five weeks of the season. During that time, it should be noted that Jones (who was officially the Packers’ third receiver over that span) played 280 snaps (97%) and was targeted 26 times, catching 19 passes for 339 yards and two touchdowns in four games. If you add those numbers to the ones Boykin posted over the next ten weeks, you get a very respectable 68 receptions on 101 targets for 1,020 yards and five touchdowns.
Now factor in Boykin played seven of those ten games with the likes of Matt Flynn and Scott Tolzien throwing him the rock and it’s easy to envision those numbers inflating even more had Rodgers been under center.
If we look back another year to 2012, we notice the third and fourth receiver for the Packers entering the season had another very successful year. Although it was once again due – at least in part – to injury, it’s still quite intriguing.
Greg Jennings, after catching 23 touchdowns over the previous two seasons, entered 2012 as the starter alongside Nelson. Cobb put up solid numbers but was limited to part-time, only playing in the slot. Jones, who you could argue entered the season either third of fourth on the depth chart, ended up playing a big role in the offense, playing 1,023 of 1,128 snaps (91%) and leading the league in touchdown grabs.
So, what should dynasty owners come away with when looking at these numbers? Good question.
First, it’s been proven the Packers’ offense is good enough to support three useful fantasy wide outs – even with a solid (but certainly not spectacular) tight end taking targets away. Early in training camp, it looks like the Packers are without a legitimate pass-catching threat at the position, which could result in the third receiver being used even more frequently this fall.
Secondly, with the loss of Jones in free agency, the Packers will need somebody to fill his role as the solid receiver who they can depend on to not only be on the field, but make plays when called upon. Boykin compares very favorably to Jones in size, speed and route running skills. While it’s not completely out of the question one of the rookies could overtake Boykin at some point, it’s unlikely it happens before training camp a year from now and between now and then, he has plenty of time to prove himself as the right guy for the job.
Perhaps the most important thing for fantasy owners to keep in mind when considering Boykin going into the season is who he’s got in his corner. Over the off-season, head coach Mike McCarthy called him, “A heck of a football player” adding, “I still think he has another jump in him.” He later stated Boykin has the makings of a number two receiver in the league.
To go along with the praise he’s received from his coach, Rodgers has said on multiple occasions how much he believes Boykin is primed to be a playmaker for the Packers and how much he trusts him when he’s on the field. That was no more evident than the two weeks they played together last season after Cobb was hurt and before Rodgers went down with his own injury. In those two games, Boykin was targeted 15 times, hauling in 13 passes for 192 yards and a touchdown.
I firmly believe Boykin has the potential to catch 60 passes for as many as 1,000 yards and possibly double digit touchdowns and possesses WR3 upside this season. If you think those numbers are farfetched, remember the numbers Jones put up in the last few years in Green Bay, not to mention the quarterback who will be throwing him the ball and the lack of experience behind him on the depth chart. At an ADP of #142, his upside is well worth the miniscule risk.
Because of his ADP, Boykin absolutely qualifies as a sleeper. However, because of his potential to contribute at a high level in one of the best offenses in the league, perhaps he should also be considered a breakout candidate.
Follow me on Twitter: @dmeylor22
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